美股最惨的“时节”要来了

华尔街见闻2021-08-01

在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后，美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。正如高盛信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样，整个八月份市场趋势都在走低，这是一年中最糟糕的时节之一，并在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上达到高潮和拐点。目前，人们预计鲍威尔将在这次会议上宣布taper。具体来看，自1950年以来，标准普尔500指数在72年里有19次在上半年上涨超过...

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Comments

CYKSSR
2021-08-07
CYKSSR
這是美股要完蛋的第幾個月了
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-08-02
LIMSIAWTONG
這個就是靠我們的觀察來穩住
云里梦里飞
2021-08-02
云里梦里飞
美股又又又要崩？
中国ChinaATM
2021-08-02
中国ChinaATM
我這科韭菜準備好了！你大夥們，你們也是嗎？
- 云里梦里飞:
  时刻准备着 [笑哭] [捂脸]
- Johnm:
  凉凉
- 中国ChinaATM:
  躺好吧！舒服绝了都
EricBong
2021-08-02
EricBong
來就來
- CMLeong:
  [捂脸]
小花猫24
2021-08-02
小花猫24
[流淚]

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Rubner所统计的那样，整个八月份市场趋势都在走低，这是一年中最糟糕的时节之一，并在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上达到高潮和拐点。目前，人们预计鲍威尔将在这次会议上宣布taper。\n具体来看，自1950年以来，标准普尔500指数在72年里有19次在上半年上涨超过10%，但在强劲的上半年之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点。\nRubner还指出，今年上半年没有出现戏剧性的大跌，标准普尔500指数连续第6个月上涨，创下2018年以来最长的上涨时间。然而，与上述观察相呼应这并不是什么好事，毕竟自2010年8月以来，此前的11个8月中有6次下跌。\n\n尽管如此，Rubner指出，即便不回顾历史，今年的状况也能得出同样的结论，美联储的资产负债表就应该能解释得很清楚清楚。随着美联储政策的逐步推出，市场将更加缺乏流动性，因此8月的下跌效应会加剧，任何负面消息都会被放大。\n此外，Rubner还回顾了此前的两次“8月危机”，这两次危机分别发生在2011年和2015年：\n\n2011年，恰逢美国在债务上限问题上的争论不休。尽管这个问题在8月初得到了解决，但标准普尔随后将美国信用评级从AAA下调至AA+。与此同时，对欧洲主权债务危机的担忧持续发酵，最终导致8月股市大跌。\n2015年，新兴市场出现了动荡，进而蔓延到包括美国和欧洲在内的其他地区。\n\n对于接下来的8月，Rubner表示，人们关注的焦点将集中于杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议，以及宏观变量（尤其是通胀）的变化。他同时表示，我们需要对市场中的任何意外保持警惕。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":891968325,"gmtCreate":1628318864267,"gmtModify":1703505046774,"author":{"id":"4091420534263970","authorId":"4091420534263970","authorIdStr":"4091420534263970","name":"CYKSSR","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091420534263970"},"htmlText":"這是美股要完蛋的第幾個月了","listText":"這是美股要完蛋的第幾個月了","text":"這是美股要完蛋的第幾個月了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891968325","repostId":2155894163,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":805346084,"gmtCreate":1627862968548,"gmtModify":1703496636759,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","authorIdStr":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090551950961780"},"htmlText":"這個就是靠我們的觀察來穩住","listText":"這個就是靠我們的觀察來穩住","text":"這個就是靠我們的觀察來穩住","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805346084","repostId":2155894163,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":805354348,"gmtCreate":1627862741284,"gmtModify":1703496627196,"author":{"id":"3568431359478653","authorId":"3568431359478653","authorIdStr":"3568431359478653","name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568431359478653"},"htmlText":"美股又又又要崩？","listText":"美股又又又要崩？","text":"美股又又又要崩？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805354348","repostId":2155894163,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":805361665,"gmtCreate":1627861624357,"gmtModify":1703496591899,"author":{"id":"3584867430360256","authorId":"3584867430360256","authorIdStr":"3584867430360256","name":"中国ChinaATM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd214125064b4d25501bb48cef2fb529","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584867430360256"},"htmlText":"我這科韭菜準備好了！你大夥們，你們也是嗎？","listText":"我這科韭菜準備好了！你大夥們，你們也是嗎？","text":"我這科韭菜準備好了！你大夥們，你們也是嗎？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805361665","repostId":2155894163,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5397533,"gmtCreate":1627862693151,"gmtModify":1663231798330,"authorId":3568431359478653,"author":{"id":3568431359478653,"authorId":3568431359478653,"name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805361665,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"时刻准备着 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