霍华德·马克斯：宏观预测“不是错就是废”

华尔街见闻2021-08-05

德尔塔变异毒株对经济复苏会造成怎样的影响？高企的通胀是否会促使美联储改变政策立场？对于当下的投资者来说，宏观因素正成为观测市场未来走势的重要一部分。英国金融时报8月4日周三刊发了橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯的署名文章。在文章中，这位投资大师就宏观预测给出了自己的看法。在文章开头，霍华德·马克斯就抛出了观点：作为一名经历过多轮市场周期的投资者，他已经学会用怀疑的目光看待宏观预测。这些...

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haiwei183
2021-08-05
haiwei183
錯和廢
haiwei183
2021-08-05
haiwei183
錯和廢
Schemppho
2021-08-05
Schemppho
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You Can Prepare）。\n他说，没有人能自信地预测我们是否正进入一个通胀时代，但是这样做的结果将是巨大的。所以他认为，投资者承认高通胀的可能性是具有合理性的，但是不应该根据宏观预期大幅调整资产配置，宏观预测可能是准确的，也可能不准确。\n\n 我们对未来都有自己的看法，但是正如我们在橡树资本所说的：“有观点是一回事，但假设它正确并下重注就完全是另一回事了。”所以我们一般不押注宏观发展。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":890741956,"gmtCreate":1628137329575,"gmtModify":1703501929740,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"htmlText":"錯和廢","listText":"錯和廢","text":"錯和廢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890741956","repostId":2157481313,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2157481313","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628136529,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2157481313?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 12:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Howard Marks: Macro forecasts are'either wrong or waste '","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2157481313","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"德尔塔变异毒株对经济复苏会造成怎样的影响？高企的通胀是否会促使美联储改变政策立场？对于当下的投资者来说，宏观因素正成为观测市场未来走势的重要一部分。\n英国金融时报8月4日周三刊发了橡树资本联合创始人霍","content":"<p>What impact will the Delta variant strain have on economic recovery? Will high inflation prompt the Fed to change its policy stance? For current investors, macro factors are becoming an important part of observing the future trend of the market.</p><p>The Financial Times published on Wednesday, August 4<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>A byline article by co-founder Howard Marks. In the article, this investment guru gave his own views on macro forecasts.</p><p>At the beginning of the article, Howard Marks threw out his point of view:<b>As an investor who has experienced many market cycles, he has learned to look at macro forecasts with skepticism.</b></p><p>These predictions are usually either unhelpful consensus expectations or non-consensus predictions, but rarely are correct. But as I explained in my latest memo to investors, these projections shouldn't be completely ignored, especially now. Although the prediction seems unreliable, Howard Marks pointed out that,<b>These forecasts should not be completely ignored: macro forecasts may be agnostic, but they are important.</b></p><p>Macro factors undoubtedly dominated, mainly focusing on inflation. In the past 16 months, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Congress have used a lot of money to support, subsidize, stimulate workers, businesses, the overall economy, capital markets and securities markets. (In fact, I think 2020 was the year when \"trillions\" started daily use) one of the consequences was that people were worried about inflation.<b>Taking the current issue of inflation as an example, Howard Marks said that there are many smart people on both sides of the debate, but there is no \"knowledge\" of what the outcome will be.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the Fed has repeatedly reiterated that the continued rise in inflation in recent months \"is a temporary phenomenon<b>”。</b>But in Marks' view, the Fed is obviously more concerned about the economic downturn, but the risk of high inflation cannot be ignored; Moreover, even Fed officials are not 100% sure they are correct.</p><p>Consider the limitations that the Fed knows. For many years, the United States, Europe and Japan set inflation targets at 2%, but none of the central banks achieved them. Today, by maintaining a high level of easing measures, the Fed shows that it is more worried about the economic downturn than inflation. Although the former is more risky, the risk of persistently high inflation still exists. Furthermore, Fed officials generally hold opposite views on the phenomenon, with some even admitting that they are not 100% sure they are correct. Such blunt statements are all we need, but obviously, we can't conclude that \"we have an answer\" on inflation … and not even know that \"there is an answer\". On the other hand, investors are worried that inflation may persist for a long time. Marks believes that markets are good observers, but rarely good forecasters.</p><p>How is the market? What do they know? Although market inflation is a good \"observer\" and highly sensitive to current developments, their response to events can be fickle. In addition, they are rarely good \"forecasters\" in knowing what will happen next.<b>Howard Marks concluded that the truth is that little is known about inflation, including the causes and solutions. \"I describe it as'cryptic 'and therefore I think we should believe forecasts about price increases less than in other areas.\"</b></p><p>Since it is impossible to predict, what should investors do?</p><p>At the end of the article, Howard Marks suggests that readers can look back to a memo he wrote in 2001 called You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare.</p><p>He said that no one can confidently predict whether we are entering an era of inflation, but the results of doing so will be huge.<b>Therefore, he believes that it is reasonable for investors to admit the possibility of high inflation, but they should not adjust asset allocation significantly according to macro expectations. Macro forecasts may or may not be accurate.</b></p><p>We all have our own opinions about the future, but as we say at Oaktree Capital: \"It's one thing to have an opinion, but it's quite another to assume it's right and place a heavy bet.\" So we don't bet on macro developments in general.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Howard Marks: Macro forecasts are'either wrong or waste '</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoward Marks: Macro forecasts are'either wrong or waste '\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 12:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What impact will the Delta variant strain have on economic recovery? Will high inflation prompt the Fed to change its policy stance? For current investors, macro factors are becoming an important part of observing the future trend of the market.</p><p>The Financial Times published on Wednesday, August 4<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>A byline article by co-founder Howard Marks. In the article, this investment guru gave his own views on macro forecasts.</p><p>At the beginning of the article, Howard Marks threw out his point of view:<b>As an investor who has experienced many market cycles, he has learned to look at macro forecasts with skepticism.</b></p><p>These predictions are usually either unhelpful consensus expectations or non-consensus predictions, but rarely are correct. But as I explained in my latest memo to investors, these projections shouldn't be completely ignored, especially now. Although the prediction seems unreliable, Howard Marks pointed out that,<b>These forecasts should not be completely ignored: macro forecasts may be agnostic, but they are important.</b></p><p>Macro factors undoubtedly dominated, mainly focusing on inflation. In the past 16 months, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Congress have used a lot of money to support, subsidize, stimulate workers, businesses, the overall economy, capital markets and securities markets. (In fact, I think 2020 was the year when \"trillions\" started daily use) one of the consequences was that people were worried about inflation.<b>Taking the current issue of inflation as an example, Howard Marks said that there are many smart people on both sides of the debate, but there is no \"knowledge\" of what the outcome will be.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the Fed has repeatedly reiterated that the continued rise in inflation in recent months \"is a temporary phenomenon<b>”。</b>But in Marks' view, the Fed is obviously more concerned about the economic downturn, but the risk of high inflation cannot be ignored; Moreover, even Fed officials are not 100% sure they are correct.</p><p>Consider the limitations that the Fed knows. For many years, the United States, Europe and Japan set inflation targets at 2%, but none of the central banks achieved them. Today, by maintaining a high level of easing measures, the Fed shows that it is more worried about the economic downturn than inflation. Although the former is more risky, the risk of persistently high inflation still exists. Furthermore, Fed officials generally hold opposite views on the phenomenon, with some even admitting that they are not 100% sure they are correct. Such blunt statements are all we need, but obviously, we can't conclude that \"we have an answer\" on inflation … and not even know that \"there is an answer\". On the other hand, investors are worried that inflation may persist for a long time. Marks believes that markets are good observers, but rarely good forecasters.</p><p>How is the market? What do they know? Although market inflation is a good \"observer\" and highly sensitive to current developments, their response to events can be fickle. In addition, they are rarely good \"forecasters\" in knowing what will happen next.<b>Howard Marks concluded that the truth is that little is known about inflation, including the causes and solutions. \"I describe it as'cryptic 'and therefore I think we should believe forecasts about price increases less than in other areas.\"</b></p><p>Since it is impossible to predict, what should investors do?</p><p>At the end of the article, Howard Marks suggests that readers can look back to a memo he wrote in 2001 called You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare.</p><p>He said that no one can confidently predict whether we are entering an era of inflation, but the results of doing so will be huge.<b>Therefore, he believes that it is reasonable for investors to admit the possibility of high inflation, but they should not adjust asset allocation significantly according to macro expectations. Macro forecasts may or may not be accurate.</b></p><p>We all have our own opinions about the future, but as we say at Oaktree Capital: \"It's one thing to have an opinion, but it's quite another to assume it's right and place a heavy bet.\" So we don't bet on macro developments in general.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637182\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a106188796ec9abb78b8a3cfbae334a5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637182","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2157481313","content_text":"德尔塔变异毒株对经济复苏会造成怎样的影响？高企的通胀是否会促使美联储改变政策立场？对于当下的投资者来说，宏观因素正成为观测市场未来走势的重要一部分。\n英国金融时报8月4日周三刊发了橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯的署名文章。在文章中，这位投资大师就宏观预测给出了自己的看法。\n在文章开头，霍华德·马克斯就抛出了观点：作为一名经历过多轮市场周期的投资者，他已经学会用怀疑的目光看待宏观预测。\n\n 这些预测通常要么是毫无帮助的共识性预测（unhelpful consensus expectations），要么是非共识性预测，但是很少情况下是正确的。但是正如我在最新一篇给投资者的备忘录中解释的那样，这些预测不应该被完全忽视，尤其是现在。\n\n尽管预测看起来不这么靠谱，霍华德·马克斯还是指出，不应该完全忽视这些预测：宏观预测可能是不可知的，但是确是重要的。\n\n 宏观因素毫无疑问地占据了主导地位，主要集中在了通胀问题上。过去16个月，美联储、美国财政部和美国国会已经动用了大量资金用于支持、补贴、刺激工人、企业、整体经济、资本市场和证券市场。（事实上，我认为2020年是“万亿trillions”开始日常使用的一年）带来的结果之一就是人们担心通胀。\n\n以当下备受关注的通胀问题为例，霍华德·马克斯表示，争论的两方都不乏聪明之人，但是根本不存在“知道”结果会是怎样的情况。\n一方面是美联储不断重申最近几个月来通胀持续走高“是临时现象”。但在马克斯看来，美联储显然更关心经济低迷问题，但是通胀高企的风险也不容忽视；此外，即便是美联储官员也并不100%确定自己是正确的。\n\n 考虑美联储知道的局限性。许多年以来，美国、欧洲和日本把通胀目标设定在2%，但是没有一家央行实现了。如今，通过维持高水平的宽松措施，美联储表明它更担心经济低迷，而不是通胀问题。尽管前者的风险更大，但是通胀持续高企的风险依然存在。此外，美联储官员通常对这一现象持有相反观点，一些人甚至承认他们并不100%确定自己是正确的。这样直率的发言是我们所需要的，但显然，我们不能在通胀问题上得出“我们有答案”的结论……甚至不知道“有一个答案”。\n\n另一方面投资者担心通胀可能会持续较长一段时间。马克斯认为，市场是好的观察者，却极少是好的预测者。\n\n 市场如何？他们知道些什么？尽管市场通胀是不错的“观察者”，且对当前事态的发展高度敏感，但是他们对事件的反应可能是善变的。此外，在知晓接下来将发生什么方面，他们也很少是好的“预测者”。\n\n霍华德·马克斯总结到，事实的真相是，大家对通胀知之甚少，包括原因和解决方法。“我把它描述为‘神秘的’，因此我认为我们应该比其他领域更少相信关于价格上涨的预测。”\n既然无法预测，那么投资者该做些什么呢？\n霍华德·马克斯在文章末尾提出，读者可以回顾下他在2001年写的一篇备忘录，名称为《你不能预测，但可以做好准备》（You Can’t Predict. You Can Prepare）。\n他说，没有人能自信地预测我们是否正进入一个通胀时代，但是这样做的结果将是巨大的。所以他认为，投资者承认高通胀的可能性是具有合理性的，但是不应该根据宏观预期大幅调整资产配置，宏观预测可能是准确的，也可能不准确。\n\n 我们对未来都有自己的看法，但是正如我们在橡树资本所说的：“有观点是一回事，但假设它正确并下重注就完全是另一回事了。”所以我们一般不押注宏观发展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":890743226,"gmtCreate":1628137299565,"gmtModify":1703501928427,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;錯和廢","listText":"&nbsp;錯和廢","text":"錯和廢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890743226","repostId":2157481313,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2157481313","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628136529,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2157481313?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 12:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Howard Marks: Macro forecasts are'either wrong or waste '","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2157481313","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"德尔塔变异毒株对经济复苏会造成怎样的影响？高企的通胀是否会促使美联储改变政策立场？对于当下的投资者来说，宏观因素正成为观测市场未来走势的重要一部分。\n英国金融时报8月4日周三刊发了橡树资本联合创始人霍","content":"<p>What impact will the Delta variant strain have on economic recovery? Will high inflation prompt the Fed to change its policy stance? For current investors, macro factors are becoming an important part of observing the future trend of the market.</p><p>The Financial Times published on Wednesday, August 4<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>A byline article by co-founder Howard Marks. In the article, this investment guru gave his own views on macro forecasts.</p><p>At the beginning of the article, Howard Marks threw out his point of view:<b>As an investor who has experienced many market cycles, he has learned to look at macro forecasts with skepticism.</b></p><p>These predictions are usually either unhelpful consensus expectations or non-consensus predictions, but rarely are correct. But as I explained in my latest memo to investors, these projections shouldn't be completely ignored, especially now. Although the prediction seems unreliable, Howard Marks pointed out that,<b>These forecasts should not be completely ignored: macro forecasts may be agnostic, but they are important.</b></p><p>Macro factors undoubtedly dominated, mainly focusing on inflation. In the past 16 months, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Congress have used a lot of money to support, subsidize, stimulate workers, businesses, the overall economy, capital markets and securities markets. (In fact, I think 2020 was the year when \"trillions\" started daily use) one of the consequences was that people were worried about inflation.<b>Taking the current issue of inflation as an example, Howard Marks said that there are many smart people on both sides of the debate, but there is no \"knowledge\" of what the outcome will be.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the Fed has repeatedly reiterated that the continued rise in inflation in recent months \"is a temporary phenomenon<b>”。</b>But in Marks' view, the Fed is obviously more concerned about the economic downturn, but the risk of high inflation cannot be ignored; Moreover, even Fed officials are not 100% sure they are correct.</p><p>Consider the limitations that the Fed knows. For many years, the United States, Europe and Japan set inflation targets at 2%, but none of the central banks achieved them. Today, by maintaining a high level of easing measures, the Fed shows that it is more worried about the economic downturn than inflation. Although the former is more risky, the risk of persistently high inflation still exists. Furthermore, Fed officials generally hold opposite views on the phenomenon, with some even admitting that they are not 100% sure they are correct. Such blunt statements are all we need, but obviously, we can't conclude that \"we have an answer\" on inflation … and not even know that \"there is an answer\". On the other hand, investors are worried that inflation may persist for a long time. Marks believes that markets are good observers, but rarely good forecasters.</p><p>How is the market? What do they know? Although market inflation is a good \"observer\" and highly sensitive to current developments, their response to events can be fickle. In addition, they are rarely good \"forecasters\" in knowing what will happen next.<b>Howard Marks concluded that the truth is that little is known about inflation, including the causes and solutions. \"I describe it as'cryptic 'and therefore I think we should believe forecasts about price increases less than in other areas.\"</b></p><p>Since it is impossible to predict, what should investors do?</p><p>At the end of the article, Howard Marks suggests that readers can look back to a memo he wrote in 2001 called You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare.</p><p>He said that no one can confidently predict whether we are entering an era of inflation, but the results of doing so will be huge.<b>Therefore, he believes that it is reasonable for investors to admit the possibility of high inflation, but they should not adjust asset allocation significantly according to macro expectations. Macro forecasts may or may not be accurate.</b></p><p>We all have our own opinions about the future, but as we say at Oaktree Capital: \"It's one thing to have an opinion, but it's quite another to assume it's right and place a heavy bet.\" So we don't bet on macro developments in general.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Howard Marks: Macro forecasts are'either wrong or waste '</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoward Marks: Macro forecasts are'either wrong or waste '\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 12:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What impact will the Delta variant strain have on economic recovery? Will high inflation prompt the Fed to change its policy stance? For current investors, macro factors are becoming an important part of observing the future trend of the market.</p><p>The Financial Times published on Wednesday, August 4<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>A byline article by co-founder Howard Marks. In the article, this investment guru gave his own views on macro forecasts.</p><p>At the beginning of the article, Howard Marks threw out his point of view:<b>As an investor who has experienced many market cycles, he has learned to look at macro forecasts with skepticism.</b></p><p>These predictions are usually either unhelpful consensus expectations or non-consensus predictions, but rarely are correct. But as I explained in my latest memo to investors, these projections shouldn't be completely ignored, especially now. Although the prediction seems unreliable, Howard Marks pointed out that,<b>These forecasts should not be completely ignored: macro forecasts may be agnostic, but they are important.</b></p><p>Macro factors undoubtedly dominated, mainly focusing on inflation. In the past 16 months, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Congress have used a lot of money to support, subsidize, stimulate workers, businesses, the overall economy, capital markets and securities markets. (In fact, I think 2020 was the year when \"trillions\" started daily use) one of the consequences was that people were worried about inflation.<b>Taking the current issue of inflation as an example, Howard Marks said that there are many smart people on both sides of the debate, but there is no \"knowledge\" of what the outcome will be.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the Fed has repeatedly reiterated that the continued rise in inflation in recent months \"is a temporary phenomenon<b>”。</b>But in Marks' view, the Fed is obviously more concerned about the economic downturn, but the risk of high inflation cannot be ignored; Moreover, even Fed officials are not 100% sure they are correct.</p><p>Consider the limitations that the Fed knows. For many years, the United States, Europe and Japan set inflation targets at 2%, but none of the central banks achieved them. Today, by maintaining a high level of easing measures, the Fed shows that it is more worried about the economic downturn than inflation. Although the former is more risky, the risk of persistently high inflation still exists. Furthermore, Fed officials generally hold opposite views on the phenomenon, with some even admitting that they are not 100% sure they are correct. Such blunt statements are all we need, but obviously, we can't conclude that \"we have an answer\" on inflation … and not even know that \"there is an answer\". On the other hand, investors are worried that inflation may persist for a long time. Marks believes that markets are good observers, but rarely good forecasters.</p><p>How is the market? What do they know? Although market inflation is a good \"observer\" and highly sensitive to current developments, their response to events can be fickle. In addition, they are rarely good \"forecasters\" in knowing what will happen next.<b>Howard Marks concluded that the truth is that little is known about inflation, including the causes and solutions. \"I describe it as'cryptic 'and therefore I think we should believe forecasts about price increases less than in other areas.\"</b></p><p>Since it is impossible to predict, what should investors do?</p><p>At the end of the article, Howard Marks suggests that readers can look back to a memo he wrote in 2001 called You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare.</p><p>He said that no one can confidently predict whether we are entering an era of inflation, but the results of doing so will be huge.<b>Therefore, he believes that it is reasonable for investors to admit the possibility of high inflation, but they should not adjust asset allocation significantly according to macro expectations. Macro forecasts may or may not be accurate.</b></p><p>We all have our own opinions about the future, but as we say at Oaktree Capital: \"It's one thing to have an opinion, but it's quite another to assume it's right and place a heavy bet.\" So we don't bet on macro developments in general.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637182\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a106188796ec9abb78b8a3cfbae334a5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637182","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2157481313","content_text":"德尔塔变异毒株对经济复苏会造成怎样的影响？高企的通胀是否会促使美联储改变政策立场？对于当下的投资者来说，宏观因素正成为观测市场未来走势的重要一部分。\n英国金融时报8月4日周三刊发了橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯的署名文章。在文章中，这位投资大师就宏观预测给出了自己的看法。\n在文章开头，霍华德·马克斯就抛出了观点：作为一名经历过多轮市场周期的投资者，他已经学会用怀疑的目光看待宏观预测。\n\n 这些预测通常要么是毫无帮助的共识性预测（unhelpful consensus expectations），要么是非共识性预测，但是很少情况下是正确的。但是正如我在最新一篇给投资者的备忘录中解释的那样，这些预测不应该被完全忽视，尤其是现在。\n\n尽管预测看起来不这么靠谱，霍华德·马克斯还是指出，不应该完全忽视这些预测：宏观预测可能是不可知的，但是确是重要的。\n\n 宏观因素毫无疑问地占据了主导地位，主要集中在了通胀问题上。过去16个月，美联储、美国财政部和美国国会已经动用了大量资金用于支持、补贴、刺激工人、企业、整体经济、资本市场和证券市场。（事实上，我认为2020年是“万亿trillions”开始日常使用的一年）带来的结果之一就是人们担心通胀。\n\n以当下备受关注的通胀问题为例，霍华德·马克斯表示，争论的两方都不乏聪明之人，但是根本不存在“知道”结果会是怎样的情况。\n一方面是美联储不断重申最近几个月来通胀持续走高“是临时现象”。但在马克斯看来，美联储显然更关心经济低迷问题，但是通胀高企的风险也不容忽视；此外，即便是美联储官员也并不100%确定自己是正确的。\n\n 考虑美联储知道的局限性。许多年以来，美国、欧洲和日本把通胀目标设定在2%，但是没有一家央行实现了。如今，通过维持高水平的宽松措施，美联储表明它更担心经济低迷，而不是通胀问题。尽管前者的风险更大，但是通胀持续高企的风险依然存在。此外，美联储官员通常对这一现象持有相反观点，一些人甚至承认他们并不100%确定自己是正确的。这样直率的发言是我们所需要的，但显然，我们不能在通胀问题上得出“我们有答案”的结论……甚至不知道“有一个答案”。\n\n另一方面投资者担心通胀可能会持续较长一段时间。马克斯认为，市场是好的观察者，却极少是好的预测者。\n\n 市场如何？他们知道些什么？尽管市场通胀是不错的“观察者”，且对当前事态的发展高度敏感，但是他们对事件的反应可能是善变的。此外，在知晓接下来将发生什么方面，他们也很少是好的“预测者”。\n\n霍华德·马克斯总结到，事实的真相是，大家对通胀知之甚少，包括原因和解决方法。“我把它描述为‘神秘的’，因此我认为我们应该比其他领域更少相信关于价格上涨的预测。”\n既然无法预测，那么投资者该做些什么呢？\n霍华德·马克斯在文章末尾提出，读者可以回顾下他在2001年写的一篇备忘录，名称为《你不能预测，但可以做好准备》（You Can’t Predict. You Can Prepare）。\n他说，没有人能自信地预测我们是否正进入一个通胀时代，但是这样做的结果将是巨大的。所以他认为，投资者承认高通胀的可能性是具有合理性的，但是不应该根据宏观预期大幅调整资产配置，宏观预测可能是准确的，也可能不准确。\n\n 我们对未来都有自己的看法，但是正如我们在橡树资本所说的：“有观点是一回事，但假设它正确并下重注就完全是另一回事了。”所以我们一般不押注宏观发展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":890457486,"gmtCreate":1628129970245,"gmtModify":1703501781931,"author":{"id":"3582187509385859","authorId":"3582187509385859","name":"Schemppho","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b8b45305de74218d5dd4689c73a09d4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582187509385859","authorIdStr":"3582187509385859"},"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890457486","repostId":2157481313,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2157481313","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628136529,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2157481313?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 12:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Howard Marks: Macro forecasts are'either wrong or waste '","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2157481313","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"德尔塔变异毒株对经济复苏会造成怎样的影响？高企的通胀是否会促使美联储改变政策立场？对于当下的投资者来说，宏观因素正成为观测市场未来走势的重要一部分。\n英国金融时报8月4日周三刊发了橡树资本联合创始人霍","content":"<p>What impact will the Delta variant strain have on economic recovery? Will high inflation prompt the Fed to change its policy stance? For current investors, macro factors are becoming an important part of observing the future trend of the market.</p><p>The Financial Times published on Wednesday, August 4<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>A byline article by co-founder Howard Marks. In the article, this investment guru gave his own views on macro forecasts.</p><p>At the beginning of the article, Howard Marks threw out his point of view:<b>As an investor who has experienced many market cycles, he has learned to look at macro forecasts with skepticism.</b></p><p>These predictions are usually either unhelpful consensus expectations or non-consensus predictions, but rarely are correct. But as I explained in my latest memo to investors, these projections shouldn't be completely ignored, especially now. Although the prediction seems unreliable, Howard Marks pointed out that,<b>These forecasts should not be completely ignored: macro forecasts may be agnostic, but they are important.</b></p><p>Macro factors undoubtedly dominated, mainly focusing on inflation. In the past 16 months, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Congress have used a lot of money to support, subsidize, stimulate workers, businesses, the overall economy, capital markets and securities markets. (In fact, I think 2020 was the year when \"trillions\" started daily use) one of the consequences was that people were worried about inflation.<b>Taking the current issue of inflation as an example, Howard Marks said that there are many smart people on both sides of the debate, but there is no \"knowledge\" of what the outcome will be.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the Fed has repeatedly reiterated that the continued rise in inflation in recent months \"is a temporary phenomenon<b>”。</b>But in Marks' view, the Fed is obviously more concerned about the economic downturn, but the risk of high inflation cannot be ignored; Moreover, even Fed officials are not 100% sure they are correct.</p><p>Consider the limitations that the Fed knows. For many years, the United States, Europe and Japan set inflation targets at 2%, but none of the central banks achieved them. Today, by maintaining a high level of easing measures, the Fed shows that it is more worried about the economic downturn than inflation. Although the former is more risky, the risk of persistently high inflation still exists. Furthermore, Fed officials generally hold opposite views on the phenomenon, with some even admitting that they are not 100% sure they are correct. Such blunt statements are all we need, but obviously, we can't conclude that \"we have an answer\" on inflation … and not even know that \"there is an answer\". On the other hand, investors are worried that inflation may persist for a long time. Marks believes that markets are good observers, but rarely good forecasters.</p><p>How is the market? What do they know? Although market inflation is a good \"observer\" and highly sensitive to current developments, their response to events can be fickle. In addition, they are rarely good \"forecasters\" in knowing what will happen next.<b>Howard Marks concluded that the truth is that little is known about inflation, including the causes and solutions. \"I describe it as'cryptic 'and therefore I think we should believe forecasts about price increases less than in other areas.\"</b></p><p>Since it is impossible to predict, what should investors do?</p><p>At the end of the article, Howard Marks suggests that readers can look back to a memo he wrote in 2001 called You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare.</p><p>He said that no one can confidently predict whether we are entering an era of inflation, but the results of doing so will be huge.<b>Therefore, he believes that it is reasonable for investors to admit the possibility of high inflation, but they should not adjust asset allocation significantly according to macro expectations. Macro forecasts may or may not be accurate.</b></p><p>We all have our own opinions about the future, but as we say at Oaktree Capital: \"It's one thing to have an opinion, but it's quite another to assume it's right and place a heavy bet.\" So we don't bet on macro developments in general.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Howard Marks: Macro forecasts are'either wrong or waste '</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoward Marks: Macro forecasts are'either wrong or waste '\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 12:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What impact will the Delta variant strain have on economic recovery? Will high inflation prompt the Fed to change its policy stance? For current investors, macro factors are becoming an important part of observing the future trend of the market.</p><p>The Financial Times published on Wednesday, August 4<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>A byline article by co-founder Howard Marks. In the article, this investment guru gave his own views on macro forecasts.</p><p>At the beginning of the article, Howard Marks threw out his point of view:<b>As an investor who has experienced many market cycles, he has learned to look at macro forecasts with skepticism.</b></p><p>These predictions are usually either unhelpful consensus expectations or non-consensus predictions, but rarely are correct. But as I explained in my latest memo to investors, these projections shouldn't be completely ignored, especially now. Although the prediction seems unreliable, Howard Marks pointed out that,<b>These forecasts should not be completely ignored: macro forecasts may be agnostic, but they are important.</b></p><p>Macro factors undoubtedly dominated, mainly focusing on inflation. In the past 16 months, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Congress have used a lot of money to support, subsidize, stimulate workers, businesses, the overall economy, capital markets and securities markets. (In fact, I think 2020 was the year when \"trillions\" started daily use) one of the consequences was that people were worried about inflation.<b>Taking the current issue of inflation as an example, Howard Marks said that there are many smart people on both sides of the debate, but there is no \"knowledge\" of what the outcome will be.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the Fed has repeatedly reiterated that the continued rise in inflation in recent months \"is a temporary phenomenon<b>”。</b>But in Marks' view, the Fed is obviously more concerned about the economic downturn, but the risk of high inflation cannot be ignored; Moreover, even Fed officials are not 100% sure they are correct.</p><p>Consider the limitations that the Fed knows. For many years, the United States, Europe and Japan set inflation targets at 2%, but none of the central banks achieved them. Today, by maintaining a high level of easing measures, the Fed shows that it is more worried about the economic downturn than inflation. Although the former is more risky, the risk of persistently high inflation still exists. Furthermore, Fed officials generally hold opposite views on the phenomenon, with some even admitting that they are not 100% sure they are correct. Such blunt statements are all we need, but obviously, we can't conclude that \"we have an answer\" on inflation … and not even know that \"there is an answer\". On the other hand, investors are worried that inflation may persist for a long time. Marks believes that markets are good observers, but rarely good forecasters.</p><p>How is the market? What do they know? Although market inflation is a good \"observer\" and highly sensitive to current developments, their response to events can be fickle. In addition, they are rarely good \"forecasters\" in knowing what will happen next.<b>Howard Marks concluded that the truth is that little is known about inflation, including the causes and solutions. \"I describe it as'cryptic 'and therefore I think we should believe forecasts about price increases less than in other areas.\"</b></p><p>Since it is impossible to predict, what should investors do?</p><p>At the end of the article, Howard Marks suggests that readers can look back to a memo he wrote in 2001 called You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare.</p><p>He said that no one can confidently predict whether we are entering an era of inflation, but the results of doing so will be huge.<b>Therefore, he believes that it is reasonable for investors to admit the possibility of high inflation, but they should not adjust asset allocation significantly according to macro expectations. Macro forecasts may or may not be accurate.</b></p><p>We all have our own opinions about the future, but as we say at Oaktree Capital: \"It's one thing to have an opinion, but it's quite another to assume it's right and place a heavy bet.\" So we don't bet on macro developments in general.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637182\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a106188796ec9abb78b8a3cfbae334a5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637182","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2157481313","content_text":"德尔塔变异毒株对经济复苏会造成怎样的影响？高企的通胀是否会促使美联储改变政策立场？对于当下的投资者来说，宏观因素正成为观测市场未来走势的重要一部分。\n英国金融时报8月4日周三刊发了橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯的署名文章。在文章中，这位投资大师就宏观预测给出了自己的看法。\n在文章开头，霍华德·马克斯就抛出了观点：作为一名经历过多轮市场周期的投资者，他已经学会用怀疑的目光看待宏观预测。\n\n 这些预测通常要么是毫无帮助的共识性预测（unhelpful consensus expectations），要么是非共识性预测，但是很少情况下是正确的。但是正如我在最新一篇给投资者的备忘录中解释的那样，这些预测不应该被完全忽视，尤其是现在。\n\n尽管预测看起来不这么靠谱，霍华德·马克斯还是指出，不应该完全忽视这些预测：宏观预测可能是不可知的，但是确是重要的。\n\n 宏观因素毫无疑问地占据了主导地位，主要集中在了通胀问题上。过去16个月，美联储、美国财政部和美国国会已经动用了大量资金用于支持、补贴、刺激工人、企业、整体经济、资本市场和证券市场。（事实上，我认为2020年是“万亿trillions”开始日常使用的一年）带来的结果之一就是人们担心通胀。\n\n以当下备受关注的通胀问题为例，霍华德·马克斯表示，争论的两方都不乏聪明之人，但是根本不存在“知道”结果会是怎样的情况。\n一方面是美联储不断重申最近几个月来通胀持续走高“是临时现象”。但在马克斯看来，美联储显然更关心经济低迷问题，但是通胀高企的风险也不容忽视；此外，即便是美联储官员也并不100%确定自己是正确的。\n\n 考虑美联储知道的局限性。许多年以来，美国、欧洲和日本把通胀目标设定在2%，但是没有一家央行实现了。如今，通过维持高水平的宽松措施，美联储表明它更担心经济低迷，而不是通胀问题。尽管前者的风险更大，但是通胀持续高企的风险依然存在。此外，美联储官员通常对这一现象持有相反观点，一些人甚至承认他们并不100%确定自己是正确的。这样直率的发言是我们所需要的，但显然，我们不能在通胀问题上得出“我们有答案”的结论……甚至不知道“有一个答案”。\n\n另一方面投资者担心通胀可能会持续较长一段时间。马克斯认为，市场是好的观察者，却极少是好的预测者。\n\n 市场如何？他们知道些什么？尽管市场通胀是不错的“观察者”，且对当前事态的发展高度敏感，但是他们对事件的反应可能是善变的。此外，在知晓接下来将发生什么方面，他们也很少是好的“预测者”。\n\n霍华德·马克斯总结到，事实的真相是，大家对通胀知之甚少，包括原因和解决方法。“我把它描述为‘神秘的’，因此我认为我们应该比其他领域更少相信关于价格上涨的预测。”\n既然无法预测，那么投资者该做些什么呢？\n霍华德·马克斯在文章末尾提出，读者可以回顾下他在2001年写的一篇备忘录，名称为《你不能预测，但可以做好准备》（You Can’t Predict. You Can Prepare）。\n他说，没有人能自信地预测我们是否正进入一个通胀时代，但是这样做的结果将是巨大的。所以他认为，投资者承认高通胀的可能性是具有合理性的，但是不应该根据宏观预期大幅调整资产配置，宏观预测可能是准确的，也可能不准确。\n\n 我们对未来都有自己的看法，但是正如我们在橡树资本所说的：“有观点是一回事，但假设它正确并下重注就完全是另一回事了。”所以我们一般不押注宏观发展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5432842,"gmtCreate":1628137215855,"gmtModify":1663231958138,"authorId":3572683426659077,"author":{"id":3572683426659077,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorId":3572683426659077,"name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":890457486,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"good","text":"good","html":"good"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":33,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2157481313","isCrawlerRequest":true}