高瓴抄底阿里！增仓蔚来、小鹏，新能源汽车机会来了吗

证券市场红周刊2021-08-18

作为二级市场上备受关注的“资本巨头”，高瓴资本的一举一动都备受关注。北京时间8月17日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）网站显示，高瓴提交了2021年二季度美股13F持仓数据。整体来看，高瓴二季度调仓动作较为活跃，与之前重仓中概股，并聚焦生命科学、硬科技等主线保持一致，但“新目标”出现较大变动。如在二季度新建仓标的中，高瓴增加了对爱彼迎、滴滴出行等关注度。同时也进一步逆市增仓电商、零售等中概股公司，如...

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Comments

dollarmore
2021-08-18
dollarmore
增倉蔚來
股市幸运姥姥
2021-08-18
股市幸运姥姥
666
- 股市幸运姥姥:
  666
撒油那啦
2021-08-18
撒油那啦
等待
小花猫24
2021-08-18
小花猫24
跟進
- anggis:
  [微笑] [微笑]
121我
2021-08-18
121我
已閱，可行
SQ1128
2021-08-18
SQ1128
贊
- 中国ChinaATM:
  [微笑]

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Has the opportunity to increase positions in NIO Inc. and Tucki and new energy vehicles come","themeId":"08fc74291eae41a7afabd1a277d970df","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab62f1328afd0d353a0beaec858ced01","symbols_score_info":{"48454":0.6,"48477":0.6,"48522":0.9,"48566":0.9,"48580":0.9,"48678":0.9,"09868":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9},"content_text":"作为二级市场上备受关注的“资本巨头”，高瓴资本的一举一动都备受关注。北京时间8月17日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）网站显示，高瓴提交了2021年二季度美股13F持仓数据。整体来看，高瓴二季度调仓动作较为活跃，与之前重仓中概股，并聚焦生命科学、硬科技等主线保持一致，但“新目标”出现较大变动。如在二季度新建仓标的中，高瓴增加了对爱彼迎、滴滴出行等关注度。同时也进一步逆市增仓电商、零售等中概股公司，如唯品会、名创优品等。\n坚守“第一重仓股”百济神州\n11个季度获利满满\n据高瓴二季度披露的13F文件显示，二季度，高瓴在美股市场持有89家公司，总市值97亿美元。其持仓总市值以8月17日下午汇率来看，折合人民币628.65亿元。\n从前十大重仓股来看，高瓴二季度持仓整体变动不大。前十大重仓整体持仓市值约为60亿美元，占总持仓60%。其中，持仓生物科技公司百济神州18.7亿美元，仍是公司“第一重仓股”。（见表1）\n表1 高瓴二季度前十大重仓股\n数据来源：官方资料\n《红周刊》记者查阅历史持仓数据显示发现，作为“钟情股”，高瓴连续持仓百济神州已经达到11个季度。高瓴早在2018年四季度即建仓百济神州；2019年三季度进行加仓，此后一直持仓至今。\n而在高瓴持仓期间的2019年至今年二季度末，百济神州股价涨幅累计达到了1.4倍。高瓴持仓百济神州市值由最初的仅6亿美元进一步增至近20亿美元。（见图1）\n图1 百济神州美股股价表现\n\n来源：Wind\n从基本面角度来看，百济神州最新披露的财报数据显示，业绩改善势头“强劲”。\n2021年8月5日，百济神州公布其第二季度及上半年财务业绩。百济神州2021年第二季度产品收入约9亿元人民币，相较去年同期增长111%，上半年产品总收入达15.8亿元人民币，同比增长108%。\n值得注意的是，从最新券商评级来看，百济神州依然被机构继续“看好”。如招商证券（香港）维持对百济神州“买入”评级。其认为，2021年下半年百济神州的催化剂包括：1、替雷利珠单抗向美国FDA递交一线非小细胞肺癌和二线食管鳞癌的上市申请；2、泽布替尼二线边缘淋巴瘤与二线华氏巨球蛋白血适应症的补充申请获得FDA批准；3、在未来大型医学会议上公布多项中期临床结果。\n“继续维持分部加总估值法目标价为417美元（截至8月16日收盘价为280美元），并在公司权益估值基础上给予20%的资本配置溢价，以反映公司充裕的现金（21财年底预计为33亿美元）和较强的BD能力。”上述研报中分析说。\n值得注意的是，在前十大重仓股中，高瓴的“新目标”锁定民宿平台爱彼迎。截至二季度末，持仓爱彼迎3.2亿美元，新进成为第八大重仓股。爱彼迎于去年12月上市至今，股价持续调整。二季度其间，股价累计下跌近20%。\n大笔增仓唯品会、名创优品等标的\n竞争力、估值优势或是增仓重要因素\n在89家持仓公司中，高瓴二季度共增持7家公司，且整体聚焦中概股。其中，增仓唯品会、名创优品、华住、蔚来、阿里巴巴均超过400%，增仓唯品会、名创优品幅度最高，增仓比例均超过1800%。截至二季度末，高瓴持仓唯品会、名创优品市值分别为1.79亿美元、1.17亿美元。位居第17和第19大持仓队列。\n与此同时，高瓴也对拼多多、优步等进行较大比例减持。有业内人士表示，高瓴二级市场团队对中概股继续进行调仓的背后，反应的是中概股在香港市场二次上市已成为长期趋势，不排除投资机构调整头寸，将仓位移至香港市场的可能性。\n同样的情况也出现在景林最新的13F数据上，根据公开信息，景林在二季度出清了再鼎医药、世纪互联、和黄医药、贝壳等公司，其中再鼎医药以及和黄医药在港股亦有上市。\n表2 高瓴二季度重点调仓股\n\n数据来源：官方资料\n从持仓数据来看，二季度其间，高瓴增仓幅度最大的两只个股——唯品会、名创优品二季度股价持续下跌，其中，唯品会下跌超32%，名创优品下跌13%。（见图2、图3）\n图2 唯品会股价表现\n\n来源：Wind\n图3 名创优品股价表现\n\n来源：Wind\n估值优势或是高瓴给与相关公司增仓的重要考量因素。以唯品会来看，随着二季度股价持续调整，估值同样出现显著下降。二季度其间，唯品会估值水平多为10~20倍，与一季度的20~30倍相比，进一步下降。\n中泰证券在研报中表示，对标TJX（美国和全世界的服装和家庭时尚低价零售商），唯品会竞争壁垒仍需时间被市场确认，但成长性更高，空间更大。按照TJX估值折价0.8-0.9倍，认为唯品会2021年合理PE为17-20倍，而当前PE仅11倍，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。\n在其看来，“自2018年底提出‘回归特卖、聚焦好货’战略以来，盈利和现金流稳健增长，账面现金充足，公司可通过回购等再投资方式大幅提升内在价值。”\n而市场习惯按照规模与增速为电商企业估值，在电商竞争的下半场，“渠道品牌”框架的重要性逐步提升，唯品会恰好跑在“渠道品牌”的正确赛道上。\n中泰证券预判称，当前，其竞争优势被显著低估，且有望从“小”而有壁垒的生意成长为“大”而有壁垒的生意。唯品会尾货处理市占率较低，成长属性大于周期属性。随着用户留存增加和黏性提高，公司业绩有望实现稳健增长。\n继续加仓小鹏、蔚来等新能源赛道\n高瓴曾公开表示，看好未来两到五年里科技领域的半导体、前沿科技、新能源、智能硬件等四大细分赛道，并将硬科技称为“历史性的结构性投资窗口期”，从持仓数据分析来看，其近三年也进一步加大了这方面的投资力度。\n如继今年一季度对小鹏、蔚来开始新一轮建仓后，高瓴二级市场团队于二季度继续对小鹏、蔚来加仓。截至二季度，对两者持仓市值分别为0.39亿美元，0.45亿美元。\n今年以来，新能源汽车销量进一步提速。据Wind数据显示，今年6~7月，中国新能源汽车月销量分别达到了25万辆、27万辆，再创历史新高。（见图4）\n图4 新能源汽车月销量\n\n数据来源：Wind\n据蔚来公布的业务数据显示，截至7月底，公司汽车当年累计销量为125,528辆，同比增长153.00%；据小鹏公布的业务数据显示，截至7月底，公司Smart EV 汽车累计值销量达38,778辆，相较于去年同期，均有显著提升。（见图5、6）\n图5蔚来汽车累计销量\n\n数据来源：Wind\n图6 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