十大券商策略：市场的风险释放已接近尾声，逐步左侧布局

格隆汇2021-08-23

上周，A股市场呈现震荡下跌，沪指累计跌2.53%，深证成指累计跌3.69%，创业板指累计下跌4.55%，北向资金累计净流出104.91亿元，沪深两市成交额已连续第23个交易日突破1万亿元。港股受权重股持续大跌影响，恒指按周大跌5.84%，国指周跌6.78%，但恒生科技指数继续周大跌10.54%，再创历史新低。后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。 1. 中信证券：市场的风险释放已接近...

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博雅1594
2021-08-23
博雅1594
牛
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2021-08-23
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好
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  牛
甜甜圈大
2021-08-23
甜甜圈大
[財迷] [財迷]
甜甜圈大
2021-08-23
甜甜圈大
大漲啦[財迷] [財迷] [財迷]
中国ChinaATM
2021-08-23
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SQ1128
2021-08-23
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href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/482283><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上周，A股市场呈现震荡下跌，沪指累计跌2.53%，深证成指累计跌3.69%，创业板指累计下跌4.55%，北向资金累计净流出104.91亿元，沪深两市成交额已连续第23个交易日突破1万亿元。港股受权重股持续大跌影响，恒指按周大跌5.84%，国指周跌6.78%，但恒生科技指数继续周大跌10.54%，再创历史新低。\n后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。\n1. 中信证券：市场的风险释放已接近...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/482283\">Source 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side","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4014e216a18aafdcda737ad358fb55fa","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"上周，A股市场呈现震荡下跌，沪指累计跌2.53%，深证成指累计跌3.69%，创业板指累计下跌4.55%，北向资金累计净流出104.91亿元，沪深两市成交额已连续第23个交易日突破1万亿元。港股受权重股持续大跌影响，恒指按周大跌5.84%，国指周跌6.78%，但恒生科技指数继续周大跌10.54%，再创历史新低。\n后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。\n1. 中信证券：市场的风险释放已接近尾声 逐步左侧布局\n共同富裕的国策方针以及未来相应的政策配套并不会伤害市场化商业逻辑，防范金融风险的政策基调下局部信用风险的影响也可控，投资者仍需等待更多信号来纠偏政策误读。预计三季度是国内宏观经济的年内低点，市场流动性依旧维持紧平衡，政策和经济前景的分歧造成投资者行为紊乱，市场风险释放已接近尾声，坚持均衡配置，逐步左侧布局。具体配置上，成长制造板块里从高位的赛道转向相对低位的赛道，如受中报业绩催化的军工以及基本面迎来拐点的5G、通信设备、汽车零部件；消费和医药板块内推荐汽车、服饰、CXO、疫苗和医疗服务等；金融板块推荐部分具备估值性价比或中长期成长逻辑的零售型银行和卡位财富管理的券商。\n2. 国泰君安：风格才刚刚开始而不是切换\n务实地看待未来投资机会，科技成长仍是下一阶段主要投资机会，风格才刚刚开始而不是切换。中盘蓝筹、科技成长为投资的核心词。在经济现压力财政稳增长和严峻的节能形势下，能源新基建是当下投资的优选方向，推荐光伏、BIPV、风电、特高压、充电桩、抽水蓄能等六大赛道。\n3. 国金证券：上证指数在3300-3400点附近无须过度悲观\n短期市场波动加大的根本原因是市场仍等待诸多不确定性落地，当前存量市场中，高成交额下市场缺乏明确主线。上证指数在3300-3400点附近无须过度悲观，一方面上市公司业绩仍有支撑，另一方面，经历了估值切换后，在业绩高增长的驱动下，当前A股估值具有一定的安全边际。尽管结构上估值分化仍较为明显，但市场中仍存在具备一定性价比的板块，比如中游制造行业。\n4. 海通证券：本轮牛市尚未走完 未来半年市场仍充满机会\n最近一周A股下跌明显，沪深300跌3.6%、创业板指跌4.6%，7月1日以来市场整体走的较弱，投资者对后市心存疑虑。我们认为，结合宏观背景和微观企业盈利看，今年类似2010年，下半场更精彩。借鉴历史上市场年度波动和牛市周期规律，未来半年市场仍充满机会。\n核心结论：（1）统计显示，沪深300每年至少一次15%以上行情，今年宏观背景类似2010年，股市后半场望更精彩。（2）上市公司ROE望继续回升至22Q1，市场估值水平和情绪指标尚可，本轮牛市尚未走完。（3）市场从独乐乐走向众乐乐，兼顾智能制造和传统中下游制造，并注意洼地行业，如券商等。\n5. 华西证券：宁组合等高景气成长是配置主线\n在海内外政策走向不确定的担忧下，近期市场风险偏好有所调降，但目前A股整体估值合理，并在短期调整中释放了情绪面及筹码集中的风险，随着不确定因素的落地，市场将有望逐步走出磨底期。后续决定市场风格的核心因素仍在于盈利的相对优势。\n具体来看，消费板块近期估值持续调降，更确定的信号还需等待基本面拐点后，市场重拾共识；政策“跨周期调节”的框架下，当前政策更多是“托而不举”，对传统基建（顺周期）的提振可能会慢一些。从中报预告来看，成长赛道的景气度难以证伪，后市仍是重点配置方向。具体到行业配置上，建议关注：“新能源产业链（电气设备、有色、化工等）、新基建（智能交通等）、军工”等；主题投资关注：“碳中和（绿色产业）内涵拓展、鸿蒙主线”。\n6. 广发证券：微观结构调整再现下的应对之策\n政策不确定加大使得A股尤其是受政策影响较大的板块出现了业绩估值双杀，当前A股市场微观结构仍未健康，近期“在高质量发展中促进共同富裕”和“专精特新”政策环境也都会进一步强化“小盘成长”主线。建议关注中报业绩（预告）修复的科技制造业，辅以部分基建受益品种。建议继续配置“市值下沉”——（1）“政策+技术+供需缺口”多轮驱动的新能源车（锂/隔膜）/光伏；（2）“人少”+ 产业政策倾斜的成长扩散（军工）；（3）成本压制缓和+需求边际变化的制造业（工程机械/水泥）。\n7. 华安证券：等待风险偏好重归平稳 成长主线仍可期待\n情绪扰动近期市场波动加大，但目前仍不具备趋势性下行的压力，结构市行情的大格局未变，成长风格有望继续占优，周期风格也值得关注。经过市场消化后，风险偏好有望复归平稳。目前国内外的宏观环境、货币环境及市场环境都相对稳定，因此短期内市场风险偏好也具备整体平稳的基础条件。具体结构上，白马龙头中报不及预期、市场监管趋严、消费复苏进程屡不及预期，导致消费风格偏好较弱。而成长风格流动性、业绩、催化剂支撑兼备，风险偏好仍相对占优。关注两条具有盈利优势的主线。主线一：成长风格，继续关注景气处于绝对高位的半导体、新能源车产业链，同时关注受益于成长扩散的结构性机会；主线二：周期风格，关注高景气结构性机会，包括景气处于高位的化工，尤其是磷化工板块，以及受益于制造业升级的通用自动设备板块。\n8. 中银证券：建议把握低估值顺周期板块超额收益\n近期市场出现一定幅度的调整，内外因素共振导致市场风险偏好出现下行。从市场结构层面来看，前期市场资金抱团的两大方向近期均面临一定波动。传统消费龙头稳定的盈利模式或面临一定潜在冲击，而反观新能源、光伏为代表的赛道股，行业景气虽然延续高位但当前估值高企，新增资金犹豫不决导致板块高位震荡。行业配置方面，建议把握低估值顺周期板块超额收益。其次，可关注新能源和半导体代表的主导产业四季度板块估值切换机会。往后看，行业业绩分化下，财管特色和龙头券商成长确定性更高，有望享受估值溢价。\n9. 粤开证券：资本市场增量资金潜力广阔\n美联储政策收紧的预期提升，或将导致美股短期调整压力，但对A股影响有限。此外，基金份额在历史高位、MSCI等海外长期资金入市、社保基金等国内长期资金入市等，资本市场增量资金潜力广阔。在下半年经济增速趋缓+流动性预期适度宽松之下，业绩仍是资金追捧的“确定性”，高景气板块、景气扩散的中等市值板块仍有望走出结构性行情。热门概念板块的换手率本周有较大的调整，交投降温、短期补跌后，挣钱效应有望回升。配置方向上，建议关注长期拥有优质商业模式、业绩可持续的科技企业，核心配置新能源汽车、半导体、军工电子和通信等“硬科技”板块；金融行业的半年报行情进行中，金融行业整体估值水平较便宜，且上半年业绩稳健修复，建议关注半年报业绩表现突出的金融板块标的。\n10. 中金公司：指数下行空间可能有限 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