Powell unlikely to fire starting pistol for tapering at Jackson Hole

MarketWatch2021-08-24

A November announcement seems more likely, but strong jobs report could alter equation Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, left, and Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of England, walk the grounds ...

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Zuoshiling
2021-08-24
Zuoshiling
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moneymaker1
2021-08-24
moneymaker1
Comment and like thanks
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The taper is not a tightening. The gradual slowing of purchases is expected to last for at least six months, meaning the Fed will still be accumulating bonds and maintaining an easy policy stance.\nThe Fed's benchmark interest rate is near zero. It would have to raise this rate above 2.5% before policy was considered tight.\nMany economists say that the high inflation rate seen this year means the Fed has to move more quickly, to at least a neutral policy stance.\nA new survey from the National Association for Business Economics found that, for the first time since the pandemic began, a majority of business economists believe the Fed is providing too much stimulus, a marked shift from last spring that reflects growing worries about high U.S. inflation.\nPowell will speak at 10 a.m. Eastern on Friday. There will be a slew of Fed officials speaking on television ahead of the chairman's remarks.\nTim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, sees two broad camps at the Fed: most officials who want to start to taper this year, and a smaller group of \"several\" officials who want to delay into 2022.\nDuy said he thinks that Powell and his inner circle are in the \"most\" camp.\n\"Powell can firm up the view that tapering will occur in 2021 simply by reiterating the main themes of the most recent minutes and position the [Fed] board as more hawkish than the position elaborated by the most dovish members,\" Duy said.\nAt this juncture, economists said Fed policy will depend on the economic data.\n\"It is really no longer about the conceptual issues, it's about the actual economic issues,\" Posen said.\nThe Labor Department will release the August job report on Sept. 3. The economy has added an average of 831,000 jobs over the past three months. Another strong report could push forward the taper announcement into September.\n\"If it's a very strong report then it moves things up,\" Reinhart said.\nBut a few economists, like Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, think that the tapering announcement may be delayed past November.\nStocks moved higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 index closing up 0.9%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 1.255%, well below the 1.75% level last seen in March.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":834621309,"gmtCreate":1629799214401,"gmtModify":1676530134762,"author":{"id":"3583660072689907","authorId":"3583660072689907","name":"Zuoshiling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2fc8ca6700334d697b886a1e8d95e15","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583660072689907","authorIdStr":"3583660072689907"},"htmlText":"Like thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834621309","repostId":2161777691,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5632406,"gmtCreate":1629799408094,"gmtModify":1663232839154,"authorId":3577087216911488,"author":{"id":3577087216911488,"idStr":"3577087216911488","authorId":3577087216911488,"name":"EriViL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f37d027290c1cdf3fa6cdba6443077c6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834621309,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":834629868,"gmtCreate":1629798989354,"gmtModify":1676530134722,"author":{"id":"3579776933147795","authorId":"3579776933147795","name":"moneymaker1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f8d20b96172e32c5470b98d70479a4","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579776933147795","authorIdStr":"3579776933147795"},"htmlText":"Comment and like thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like thanks&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834629868","repostId":2161777691,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5632382,"gmtCreate":1629799209808,"gmtModify":1663232840129,"authorId":3583660072689907,"author":{"id":3583660072689907,"idStr":"3583660072689907","authorId":3583660072689907,"name":"Zuoshiling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2fc8ca6700334d697b886a1e8d95e15","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834629868,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5632412,"gmtCreate":1629799482505,"gmtModify":1663232839630,"authorId":3576936125208674,"author":{"id":3576936125208674,"idStr":"3576936125208674","authorId":3576936125208674,"name":"SS22","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af5dfc901c3ceaf96e90db4273117c6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":834629868,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":18,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2161777691"}