天然气涨疯了，A股燃气公司中报如何？

华尔街见闻2021-08-28

在通胀和碳中和等种因素和背景的叠加下，今年以来大宗商品涨势如虹，而天然气更是个中翘楚，成为了今年年内涨幅最大的大宗商品。据央视新闻，市场数据显示，过去一年里，亚洲的液化天然气价格暴涨近6倍；欧洲天然气涨幅更为惊人，7月份价格较去年5月份相比增长超过10倍；就连天然气资源丰富的美国也顶不住了，到8月18日，涨到了每百万英热单位4.2美元，是去年的2倍，日前气价已创下近10年来最高水平。天然气价格...

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hhyw
2021-08-29
hhyw
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sptang
2021-08-29
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Diaschy86
2021-08-29
Diaschy86
加油
小虎小虎小小虎
2021-08-29
小虎小虎小小虎
666
- 小虎小虎小小虎:
  555
一剑奈何
2021-08-28
一剑奈何
666
- 一剑奈何:
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How about the interim report of A-share gas companies?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a0deb516911c50a03f254fb80b04cc3","symbols_score_info":{"DGAZ":0.9,"NGmain":0.9,"QGmain":0.9,"UGAZ":0.9,"UNG":0.9},"content_text":"在通胀和碳中和等种因素和背景的叠加下，今年以来大宗商品涨势如虹，而天然气更是个中翘楚，成为了今年年内涨幅最大的大宗商品。\n据央视新闻，市场数据显示，过去一年里，亚洲的液化天然气价格暴涨近6倍；欧洲天然气涨幅更为惊人，7月份价格较去年5月份相比增长超过10倍；就连天然气资源丰富的美国也顶不住了，到8月18日，涨到了每百万英热单位4.2美元，是去年的2倍，日前气价已创下近10年来最高水平。\n天然气价格飙升，A股燃气公司业绩表现如何？这些公司的股价后续走势又将如何？\n上半年国内天然气行业进展\n据天风证券研究报告，2021 年上半年，国内天然气需求在“碳中和”和“煤改气”背景下快速增长，总表观消费量达到 1851 亿方，同比增幅 16%。\n其中，LNG（液化天然气）进口量增加了 26%。主要原因是，总体需求高速增长背景下，国产气量和管道进口气量具有一定的供给刚性，弹性部分只能由 LNG 进口补足。\n“煤改气”的行业背景下，工商气是拉动总体气量增长的关键因素。\n不过在一段时间的高速增长和炒作后，国内天然气市场需求增速也存在显著放缓的风险：\n一是国际 LNG 现货价格波动过大，将影响下游企业需求稳定性；二是气价波动加强的新形势下，企业套保不力导致盈利波动性增强。\n不过在需求高速增长、气源价格高企的背景下，同样也出现了一些成长的烦恼——燃气公司出现小幅的毛差压缩。不过值得注意的是，受益气量增长，龙头公司的成本费用得以摊薄。\n龙头燃气公司零售气量及毛差情况\n总体来看，在行业快速增长的背景下，龙头燃气公司体现出来的增速更是高于行业水平。\n天风证券研报显示，新奥能源上半年零售气量 124 亿方，同比+22%；华润燃气上半年零售气量 133 亿方，同比+30%；昆仑能源上半年零售气量120 亿方，同比+20%。\n\n具体到公司财务数据，单方气对应的 EBIT（税前息前利润）缩窄幅度明显小于毛差的缩窄幅度。\n主要城市燃气公司 2021H1 毛差变化情况（单位：亿方）：\n\n比如，新奥能源的天然气零售业务板块，单方气毛差从 2020H1 的 0.61 元/方下降到 2021H1 的 0.56 元/方，同比-0.05 元/方； 而单方气的 EBIT 水平从 0.30 元/方下降到 0.27 元/方，同比降幅 0.03 元/方，小于毛差的缩窄幅度。\n\nLGN 数据和未来成长性\n天风证券认为，对于燃气公司，应更重视其气量的成长性，而非价差波动。\n在 LGN 的数据和竞争力上：\n新奥股份托管了舟山 LNG 接收站，并获得了国家管网公司 LNG 接收站的窗口期使用权。该接收站上半年处理量 184 万吨，其中 52%液态出，全年目标 450 万吨。今年 Q2 二期建设完成后，预计2023 年处理能力达到 800 万吨。\n此外，公司正在申请三期扩能审批，有望在 2021 年底拿到核准，把舟山打造成东北亚 LNG 交易中心。\n昆仑能源拥有唐山和如东两个 LNG 进口终端，接卸能力均为 650 万吨。2021 上半年， 两个接收站平均负荷率高达 84%，同比大幅+18.6pct；LNG 气化量和装车量共 75 亿方，同比+28%。\n从昆仑能源公布的接收站使用率也可能看出，上半年 LNG 进口终端使用率大幅提升。此外，主要上市公司在中期业绩发布中，表示了对 LNG 气源的重视，包括对国家管网公司 LNG 接收站窗口期的重视，利用窗口期和其他多元化的 LNG 气源，也是未来燃气公司的布局方向。\n\n中国燃气虽然目前没有自营的 LNG 接收站。但其在业绩会上提出，国家管网公司窗口期合作，LNG 管道气串换探索。中燃是中海油最大的 LNG 分销商，在广东省成立 了合资公司，瞄准大湾区工业用户煤改气，目标是成为中国最大的 LNG 液态分销企业。 21/22 财年计划 450-500 万吨 LNG 销量。与国家管网公司合作，LNG 码头的窗口期，2021 年计划进口 LNG70-100 万吨。\n\n华润燃气2021 上半年，管道气采购占比 88.0%，同比上升 1.0 个百分点；LNG 采购占比 10.4%，同比下降 1.0 个百分点。窗口期采购国际 LNG1.6 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