天风宏观：美联储用加息预期打败加息

雪涛宏观笔记 2021-12-17

12月FOMC会议上鲍威尔没有对加息时间给任何明确指引，也明确表态不会在Taper时加息，承认通胀超出了联储预测框架的同时，也降低了通胀在联储决策框架中的影响。点阵图“明年三次加息”的预测并不牢靠。当前美国的经济状态类似2018年下半年，经济刚有向下的苗头，联储还在滞后性收缩，未来货币政策态度发生180度转向是可能的，类似2018年底-2019年初。文：天风宏观宋雪涛/联系人向静姝 12月...

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Auggie小福星
2021-12-17
Auggie小福星
溫水煮青蛙
Diaschy86
2021-12-17
Diaschy86
666

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Research，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n\n\n\n图5：半导体库存预计将回升\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Gartner，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n\n\n\n图6：CPI预测明年二季度后加速下滑\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n\n\n\n表1：点阵图与实际货币政策有差异\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，Fred，天风证券研究所","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":699085819,"gmtCreate":1639723102488,"gmtModify":1676532346764,"author":{"id":"3554791483149405","authorId":"3554791483149405","name":"Auggie小福星","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0430cd45294c5185b594ff30cd94cac0","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3554791483149405","idStr":"3554791483149405"},"htmlText":"溫水煮青蛙","listText":"溫水煮青蛙","text":"溫水煮青蛙","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/699085819","repostId":2192928723,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9000916779,"gmtCreate":1639718605656,"gmtModify":1676533493073,"author":{"id":"3582212677594923","authorId":"3582212677594923","name":"Diaschy86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023e36d76d8f4434c4ca55ea9d316933","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582212677594923","idStr":"3582212677594923"},"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000916779","repostId":2192928723,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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