美股财报季拉开序幕，重点关注这三件事

华尔街见闻2022-01-10

今年的开年对美股来说无疑是糟糕的一年，截至上周五，标准普尔指数下跌了1.9%，纳斯达克指数下跌了3.5%，这是自2000年互联网泡沫破灭以来，开年第一周的最大跌幅。当然，暴跌的罪魁祸首是美联储，上周三的调整走势与鹰派的12月会议纪要的发布相吻合，该纪要暗示，美联储不仅将加快加息步伐，而且还将加快缩表。上周五的非农就业报告显示，19.9万的新增就业人数相对40万的预期而言较为惨淡，但这并没有打消鹰派...

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虎琊
2022-01-11
虎琊
Yue
mjng
2022-01-11
mjng
學習
haiwei183
2022-01-11
haiwei183
good
老八公
2022-01-11
老八公
瞭解
Youn7276
2022-01-11
Youn7276
Ok
hhyw
2022-01-11
hhyw
請點贊

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市场预期如何？考虑到所有这些因素，投资者正等待本周开始的2021年第四季度财报季，贝莱德（BLK）、花旗（C）、摩根大通和富国银行将于1月14日（周五）发布2021年第四季度财报。根据Kostin的计算，在1月10日至2月11日期间，占标准普尔500指数市值79%的公司将公布年终业绩。市场普遍预计2021年第四季度标准普尔500指数每股收益将同比增长20%，2021年前三季度依次为一季度48%、二季度88%和三季度39%。如果对第四季度的共识预期得以实现，这将代表着朝着趋势增长的正常化方向迈出了一步。在所有行业中，能源股预计将从负收益转为正收益。与2020年第四季度相比，材料(+57%)、工业(+47%)和医疗保健(+16%)的每股收益预计将实现最高增长，而金融(0%)和消费必需品(+3%)的每股收益预计几乎不会增长。尽管通胀飙升，但预计净利润率将同比增长近100个基点，至11.5%，这表明所有以及部分投入价格的上涨都已转嫁给了消费者。按四个季度滚动计算，利润率将达到12.1%。值得注意的是，第三季度的实际业绩比财报季开始时分析师的预测高出70个基点。预计能源和材料行业的利润率增幅最大。重点关注三件事：奥密克戎、就业市场、拜登“重建更好”法案高盛认为，投资者将在第四季度财报季和2022年重点关注三个方面事项：1、经济增长面临的威胁，特别是来自新冠变异病毒的威胁奥密克戎变异株给经济活动带来了新的风险，因为它具有更高的传播性，或将拖累重新开放。高盛经济学家最近将美国经济增长预测从4.2%下调至3.5%，部分原因是奥密克戎的影响。GDP增长中每1个百分点的变化可以转化为大约 7 美元的标准普尔500指数每股收益。2、2022年，扩大利润率对企业来说将是一场艰苦的战斗，部分原因是就业市场持续吃紧在最近的第三季度财报电话会议中，企业管理层对历史性的工人短缺感到遗憾，尤其是服务业的低薪岗位。高盛经济学家预计，工资上涨的步伐最终将放缓至4%左右，但这可能需要几个季度才能实现。上周五的就业报告显示，平均时薪同比增长4.7%。劳动力成本高或容易受到工资通胀影响的公司，在保持利润方面面临的困难最大。自四季度初以来，毛利率高且稳定的公司比毛利率低且波动的公司高出12个百分点（+4%对-9%），但最近几周交易略有逆转。下图显示了毛利率高且稳定的股票列表。此外，利润率扩张面临的一个不利因素可能很快会得到改善，那就是2021年困扰企业的供应链瓶颈问题。期间，企业管理层采取了价格上涨和成本控制相结合的措施，以抵消原材料和运输价格飙升的影响。展望2022年，高盛指出，衡量供应链紧张程度的市场指标似乎正在缓慢放松，运输成本近几周已开始下降。3、拜登的“重建更好”法案的重启和最终通过，将对美股产生好坏参半的影响去年12月底，参议员乔·曼钦(Joe 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