柳叶刀重磅：全球新冠“大流行”即将结束！

华尔街见闻2022-01-21

1月19日，权威医学杂志《柳叶刀》（The Lancet）发表了一篇重磅评论文章，称新冠病毒或将继续存在，但全球新冠“大流行”即将结束。从1月17日的疫情数据来看，全球有超1亿人感染奥密克戎，是去年4月德尔塔感染高峰的10倍多。这一前所未有的感染水平表明，奥密克戎变种病毒有着超强的传播力。然而希腊最新公布的疫情数据让人们看到了希望。从2021年12月21日至2022年1月17日，希腊新冠病例增加了...

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Comments

洞幽烛远
2022-01-24
洞幽烛远
希望好轉
虎琊
2022-01-24
虎琊
你說啥就是啥吧
Eclim
2022-01-24
Eclim
[微笑] [微笑]
haiwei183
2022-01-23
haiwei183
look
Jet2017
2022-01-23
Jet2017
那些嘲笑英美防疫的人現在怎麼說？
- haiwei183:
  look
CYau
2022-01-22
CYau
Wow

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Murray，他就职于西雅图华盛顿大学。在过去两年中，Murray团队持续为白宫提供新冠疫情建模，对病死率的预测一直十分准确。在这篇引起广泛热烈讨论的文章中，Murray大胆预测，全球新冠“大流行”很可能会在不久后结束，关键时间点是2022年3月。Murray指出，根据目前的疫情流行情况，到2022年2月中旬，大多数国家将迎来奥密克戎确诊病例的峰值。到2022年3月下旬，全球将有超过50%的人感染奥密克戎。Murray认为，感染奥密克戎可以对其他变种病毒产生保护力，因此可以帮助全人类建立免疫屏障，预防今后可能会出现的变种病毒。此外，随着新冠疫苗的接种率持续增加、加强针的推广以及高水平的感染获得性免疫，Murray认为全球的免疫水平应该处于历史最高水平。因此，从2022年3月开始的几周或几个月的时间里，预计病毒传播水平会降低。还有一些研究数据支撑上述观点。基于IHME模型的估算数据，从2021年11月底到2022年1月17日，尽管全球每日新冠感染增加了30多倍，但是在此期间报告的新冠病例仅增加了6倍。与以往的新冠变种病毒相比，感染奥密克戎的无症状或轻度病例的比例有所增加，全球感染检出率从20%下降到5%。无症状感染的比例迅猛增加的同时，在美国大多数州，新冠住院病例与确诊病例的比例与之前的峰值相比下降了约50%。在南非，90%以上的感染是无症状的，而新冠住院患者中需要插管或濒临死亡的比例下降了80-90%。未来的新冠将会变成什么样？Murray认为，未来新冠病毒传播对健康的影响将较小。新冠肺炎将成为与流感类似的、卫生系统和社会必须管理的另一种复发性疾病。值得一提的是，彻底“躺平”的英国可能是该理论的最新实践者。华尔街见闻此前文章中提到了，英国宣布下周开始全民摘口罩并完全开放。1月19日，英国首相约翰逊表示，科学家认为全英奥密克戎变种病毒疫情已达顶峰。因此，为对抗最新一波新冠疫情而实施的多项防疫限制，将可于下周起解除。此外，Murray还指出，随着新的新冠变种病毒不断出现，可能会对全球免疫力造成一定程度的削弱，从而为新冠病毒的持续变种和传播创造机会。考虑到季节性因素，各国应该预计冬季月份的潜在传播会增加。Murray表示，即使全人类都接种了疫苗也无法阻止新冠病毒不停变种，但能够在预防重疾方面得到有效的防护。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9007404691,"gmtCreate":1642980607200,"gmtModify":1676533760833,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"htmlText":"希望好轉","listText":"希望好轉","text":"希望好轉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007404691","repostId":2205012843,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9007577462,"gmtCreate":1642979800913,"gmtModify":1676533760626,"author":{"id":"3557455323607292","authorId":"3557455323607292","name":"虎琊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0995a39178d8512115e4e0e1619b14dd","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3557455323607292","idStr":"3557455323607292"},"htmlText":"你說啥就是啥吧","listText":"你說啥就是啥吧","text":"你說啥就是啥吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007577462","repostId":2205012843,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9007523765,"gmtCreate":1642954333045,"gmtModify":1676533759736,"author":{"id":"3587018322327346","authorId":"3587018322327346","name":"Eclim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/850fb38750b36cfd4680abe53d532d5f","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3587018322327346","idStr":"3587018322327346"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] 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