外媒头条 | 地缘风险引发变天！加息力度预期下降

新浪财经2022-02-18

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、地缘风险引发市场变天交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注2、近月合约大幅溢价油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见3、美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控” 因此现在需要采取行动4、高盛策略师：劳动力市场成为美国公司财报电话会议的关键词5、美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级特斯拉下滑至第23位6、“木头姐”：创新型股票被严重低估近期基金亏损是暂时的...

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Comments

迷恋者
2022-02-18
迷恋者
uu
康康的
2022-02-18
康康的
好
北纬1度线
2022-02-18
北纬1度线
搞死自己
茂虎
2022-02-18
茂虎
就是搞得你昏頭轉向。
changgw
2022-02-18
changgw
Up
hhyw
2022-02-18
hhyw
加息力度天天改，今天說預期下降，明天上升😅😅😅

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179

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The intensity of interest rate hike is expected to decline","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2233cc7790b68692021b6ea4c37b16e0","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,".IXIC":1,"SPY":1},"content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、地缘风险引发市场变天 交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注2、近月合约大幅溢价 油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见3、美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控” 因此现在需要采取行动4、高盛策略师：劳动力市场成为美国公司财报电话会议的关键词5、美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级 特斯拉下滑至第23位6、“木头姐”：创新型股票被严重低估 近期基金亏损是暂时的地缘风险引发市场变天 交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注市场交易员目前预计，美联储在3月会议上加息25个基点的可能性比加息50个基点更大。虽然通胀率高于预期且美联储明显的鹰派姿态本月早些时候引发了对更大幅加息的猜测，但最近一系列地缘政治消息推动避险情绪升温，25个基点的加息幅度似乎变得更有可能。周三发布的美联储会议纪要未透露任何关于大幅加息的重要线索，这也助长了交易员对25基点的押注。俄乌局势趋紧刺激了周四对美国国债的买盘，短期收益率下滑。与3月份美联储利率会议时间挂钩的隔夜指数掉期（OIS）预计联邦基金目标利率将比当前0.08%的实际有效利率高出约35基点。鉴于美联储升息幅度通常是25基点的倍数，所以OIS价格说明交易员认为3月肯定至少加25基点，但50基点的可能性只有40%左右。与几天前相比，这是一个明显的变化。周三开盘时，市场价格反映3月可能升息40基点左右，表明加息50个基点的可能性相对更大。近月合约大幅溢价 油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见本轮基准油价大幅波动期间，原油期货曲线显示市场处于有史以来最强劲的时期之一。本周布伦特价格大幅波动至90美元以上，但市场结构中的波动更大。近月合约较远期合约大幅溢价，显示交易员现在正在争相购油。一些期货价差已达到2007年有相关数据以来的最高水准。这在全球最重要的实物原油价格中得到最明确的反映：即期布伦特原油现货价格周三触及每桶100美元，为2014年以来首次。最近几周，北海现货市场蓬勃发展，随着欧洲炼油厂的需求激增，一些实物价差创下历史新高。“即期布伦特的强势显然表明炼油商正在采购短期供应，”包括Amrita Sen在内的Energy Aspects分析师在本周给客户的一份报告中写道。“在中期内平衡这个市场的唯一方法仍然是以高油价来减缓需求的增长。”美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控” 因此现在需要采取行动美国圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯-布拉德（James Bullard）周四警告称，如果美联储不采取利率行动，通胀可能会成为一个更严重的问题。布拉德称，“我们这一代人现在面临的风险比以往都更大，这可能会失控。一种情况是，我们面临着一个无法预料的新的意外，我们可能还会有更高的通胀。这是我们希望确保不会发生的那种情况。”布拉德最近因呼吁美联储采取鹰派行动而备受市场关注。他主张在7月之前将利率提高一个百分点，以应对40年来最严重的通胀。在周四的讲话中，布拉德重申了他的主张，即美联储应该“前置”加息，以遏制通胀。“总体而言，我认为，关于通胀将在未来某个时候消散的想法被过分强调和关注了，”布拉德说。“我们面临通胀不会消散的风险，2022年将是连续第二年出现相当高的通胀水平。所以这就是为什么在这种情况下，美联储应该比在其他情况下更快、更积极地采取行动。”高盛策略师：劳动力市场成为美国公司财报电话会议的关键词高盛集团的策略师说，历史罕见的劳动力市场吃紧、低失业率以及不断上升的工资通胀正在挤压利润率，让美国企业疲于应付。David J． Kostin牵头的策略师表示，通过对标普500指数成份股公司第四季度财报电话会议的分析可以看出，在劳动力参与率仍然低于疫情前水平的情况下，许多公司正在提高薪酬以吸引工人，这对企业利润构成压力。尽管薪资增速达到数十年来最快，但人手问题仍然存在，也是供应链中断的原因之一。“供应链中断继续影响利润率，目前尚不清楚这些问题何时得到解决，”Kostin在一份报告中写道。“最近一个季度的财报电话会议显示，这些中断将持续多久、我们距离正常化还有多远，存在更多不确定性。”尽管如此，Kostin表示，那些在供应链问题出现之初就采取行动的公司能够保护利润率，并说分析师们在财报季开始时低估了企业利润的强劲程度。高盛还建议关注那些资产负债表强劲、利润率稳定、能够在投入成本通胀时期保护利润的优质公司。美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级 特斯拉下滑至第23位美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级，特斯拉评级下滑7位，排名23，这是特斯拉七年来最差的表现；特斯拉Model 3不再是2022年电动汽车市场“最佳选择”，而是被福特汽车Mustang Mach-E取代。《消费者报告》高级主管杰克费舍尔表示，Model 3在某些方面无法与福特Mach-E 相媲美，尤其是辅助驾驶方面。“木头姐”：创新型股票被严重低估 近期基金亏损是暂时的Ark Invest首席执行官Cathie Wood周四表示，其专注于创新的投资组合中的科技公司被严重低估，并认为旗下基金最近的抛售是暂时的。“我们的基金出现了大幅下滑，”Wood周四表示。 “我们确实相信创新型股票处于廉价区域……我们的科技股相对于其潜力被大幅低估了……给我们五年时间，我们正在运行一个深度价值投资组合。”Wood的旗舰基金ARK Innovation ETF在2022年陷入了科技股暴跌浪潮的中心，今年迄今已下跌26%。由于对利率上升的预期，她持有的Zoom、Teladoc Health和Roku等在内的重仓股今年已经下跌了70%。“我们最大的担忧是，我们的投资者将我们认为的暂时损失变成了永久性损失，”Wood说。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9094264809,"gmtCreate":1645154510402,"gmtModify":1676534004176,"author":{"id":"3575846264530485","authorId":"3575846264530485","name":"迷恋者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"uu","listText":"uu","text":"uu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094264809","repostId":2212790643,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9094262460,"gmtCreate":1645154247160,"gmtModify":1676534004144,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094262460","repostId":2212790643,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9094218687,"gmtCreate":1645149978184,"gmtModify":1676534003586,"author":{"id":"3577005617035851","authorId":"3577005617035851","name":"北纬1度线","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4e2bd60feda0f7eb2d2f34c6b4dc130","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1eed764d9c7ff83dc093fbb9a96bc2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"搞死自己","listText":"搞死自己","text":"搞死自己","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094218687","repostId":2212790643,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9094208080,"gmtCreate":1645145816917,"gmtModify":1676534002626,"author":{"id":"4105234858329470","authorId":"4105234858329470","name":"茂虎","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d153aa2563e19e12115aed0ab2aca857","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"就是搞得你昏頭轉向。","listText":"就是搞得你昏頭轉向。","text":"就是搞得你昏頭轉向。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094208080","repostId":2212790643,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9094209321,"gmtCreate":1645145582016,"gmtModify":1676534002551,"author":{"id":"4102283905573500","authorId":"4102283905573500","name":"changgw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7aad2b53a8d40f5916f5fb3cef3f0f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094209321","repostId":2212790643,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9094209933,"gmtCreate":1645145580748,"gmtModify":1676534002550,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"加息力度天天改，今天說預期下降，明天上升😅😅😅","listText":"加息力度天天改，今天說預期下降，明天上升😅😅😅","text":"加息力度天天改，今天說預期下降，明天上升😅😅😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094209933","repostId":2212790643,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":179,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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