若乌克兰危机推高通胀，或迫使美联储今夏加速加息

华尔街见闻2022-03-01

美联储政策收紧计划正面临俄乌危机的干扰：如果俄乌危机导致通胀持续上行，美联储或被迫在今年夏天大幅升息，这将增加明年经济衰退的风险。美联储主席鲍威尔本周三将在众议院金融服务委员会作证，周四将在参议院银行委员会作证，这是美联储主席每年两次在国会露面的时间之一。今年的时间点恰逢美联储发布半年度货币审查报告政策。报告于上周发布。对于俄乌危机，报告仅包含一个简短的提及，即“最近与俄罗斯—乌克兰局势相关的地缘...

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Comments

SP2021
2022-03-02
SP2021
Ok
389
2022-03-01
389
正好不加息，老百姓要怨只能怨老毛子，所以皆大歡喜

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24.5个基点（基本等于升息25个基点）。市场分析预计，鲍威尔很可能在本周的听证会上淡化美联储3月加息50个基点的可能性。大多数美联储官员已表示，他们更希望3月份开始将基准利率上调25个基点；美联储上次加息50个基点是在2000年，之后历次加息幅度都是25个基点。美联储内部，目前只有两位官员公开呼吁在3月政策会议上加息50个基点。美联储理事沃勒(Christopher Waller)上周表示，如果美联储下次会议前发布的通胀和就业报告“表明美国经济仍然过热，那么就有充分理由支持3月份加息50个基点”。经济数据将成为焦点两项重要经济数据将成为美联储以及市场关注的焦点：定于本周五发布的美国2月就业报告，以及3月10日将发布的2月份CPI报告。如果又有经济数据显示就业市场过热或价格压力加速，可能会重新引发关于美联储3月是否加息50个基点的辩论，当然这一辩论的前提是乌克兰冲突不会进一步加剧市场混乱。美联储官员已经暗示，如果后续通胀水平维持高位，他们可能考虑今年夏季加息50个基点。如果以更大幅度加息，可能会将美国联邦利率推升至2.25%-2.5%区间，而上一次达到这一水平是在2018年底。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9033055361,"gmtCreate":1646173633742,"gmtModify":1676534097322,"author":{"id":"3575508103712478","authorId":"3575508103712478","name":"SP2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4b05cedc2864e9c2d8796bb319f4bb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575508103712478","authorIdStr":"3575508103712478"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033055361","repostId":2216811042,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":632087827,"gmtCreate":1646146002663,"gmtModify":1676532784295,"author":{"id":"14002337142582","authorId":"14002337142582","name":"389","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"14002337142582","authorIdStr":"14002337142582"},"htmlText":"正好不加息，老百姓要怨只能怨老毛子，所以皆大歡喜","listText":"正好不加息，老百姓要怨只能怨老毛子，所以皆大歡喜","text":"正好不加息，老百姓要怨只能怨老毛子，所以皆大歡喜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/632087827","repostId":2216811042,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":20,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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