Everyone Is Expecting A Crash, Or Stagflation, So It's Happening - That's Not How It Works

seekingalpha2022-03-16

Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty ImagesThe CrashI was chatting with a friend down in Florida, and knowing my favorite topic is the stock market, he asked me what did I think of the crash. I wasn’t...

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Comments

林欣霓
2022-05-10
林欣霓
X
ParableTalen
2022-03-16
ParableTalen
How come you have so much money to buy the dip?
Oldie
2022-03-16
Oldie
Nice
MFME
2022-03-16
MFME
Crash or no crash.... money just get churned around
ASCNMN
2022-03-16
ASCNMN
Ok
tanwwwww
2022-03-16
tanwwwww
Like please

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I wasn’t...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4495208-everyone-expecting-crash-stagflatiion-happening-not-how-it-works\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4532","symbol_name":"文艺复兴科技持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4495208-everyone-expecting-crash-stagflatiion-happening-not-how-it-works","article_id":"2219220927","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219220927","pubTimestamp":1647399932,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty ImagesThe CrashI was chatting with a friend down in Florida, an","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4566":"资本集团","EXPE":"Expedia","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","PYPL":"PayPal","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","XPO":"XPO Logistics","BK4538":"云计算","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","ASAN":"阿莎娜","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4573":"虚拟现实","DDOG":"Datadog","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","ABNB":"爱彼迎","DOCU":"Docusign","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念"},"translate_title":"每个人都在期待崩盘或滞胀，所以它正在发生--这不是它的工作原理","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"430047":1,"430090":1,"430198":1,"430418":1,"430489":1,"430510":1,"XPO":1,"UPST":1,"PYPL":1,"FB":1,"EXPE":1,"DOCU":1,"DDOG":1,"ASAN":1,"AMZN":1,"ABNB":1},"content_text":"Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty ImagesThe CrashI was chatting with a friend down in Florida, and knowing my favorite topic is the stock market, he asked me what did I think of the crash. I wasn’t sure what he meant, he added the stock market crash, what did I think? The question took the notion that the market is going to crash as received wisdom. He was asking what I thought the ramifications would be. I said that I didn’t think there would be a crash. That was met with a bit of awkward silence. Other conversations this weekend with friends and acquaintances yielded a certainty that inflation will be intractable and will be a persistent feature of the economic landscape for years to come. I don’t agree, I may have underestimated how long inflation news would persist, but I believe that inflation will begin to recede in mid-May, certainly, none of these conditions portends a crash.Crashes happen when no one is expecting them. That everyone is talking about millionaires who were first in into whatever fad everyone is convinced will never go down. The most recent that comes to mind is the teenage crypto millionaires. I am not claiming that crypto is about to crash, just using it as an example. When no one believes the stock markets (or real estate and yes Bitcoin) can EVER crash that is when it really hits hard. This may sound familiar to the older folk who’ve lived through the housing bubble, or dot com bubble. If not let me familiarize you with the phenomenon. Everyone and his brother is in the market including your cab driver. Pretty soon everyone is buying in and sure they will be millionaires. It’s at that point that the market has run out of buyers, that's when a \"crash\" happens. The catalyst doesn’t matter right now, It’s like setting up dominoes standing up in a long row, even the tiniest touch on the first one can create a huge chain reaction. If everyone is already “All In” and maybe even leveraged the only thing to do is sell. That is how a crash happens.Here it is the complete opposite, everyone is pushing the notion of a crashEveryone is talking about a bear market, the economy is going into a recession, why? Take your pick. The market is running out of steam. No! The economy is overheating and Powell is behind the curve on inflation! He must raise interest rates 200-300 basis points, and then he’ll cause a recession by overtightening. Have you noticed that these two opposing notions are punted in the same conversation? Let’s get this straight, a recession means the economy has slowed so much that it is falling. Officially, economists count an economy in recession if there are 2 quarters with negative growth. While inflation is usually a result of the market growing TOO FAST. So naturally the purveyors of hot air resort to using stagflation, which encompasses both zero growth AND inflation. This conflation is gaining a lot of currency as those who promote the notion that stagflation happens all the time. In fact, it is exceedingly rare, rarer than a blue moon. The only time stagflation has ever happened in modern history was when the term was coined, during the Carter administration. Will rising interest rates create more chips? More homes? More cars? No, raising interest rates will slow the demand for those items. I am not against raising interest rates, but even as interest rates are rising that the economy will continue to grow, and supply will return lowering prices. I believe that Powell will not overreact, I still see no evidence to believe otherwise, no matter how many times pundits bring it up.Let me try and tie all of this together, 2022 is not the 1970s, Stagflation is a rare thing to the special circumstances of the 1970s. A wage-price hike spiral is very unlikely to happen. Surprisingly or perhaps not, worker wages are the biggest expense and the largest influence on inflation. Remember I said that the 70s had hardly any productivity? That is not at all true today.Market sentiment gets super negative when participants’ imaginations are unboundA big rule about market behavior is how it hates the unknown. The market will embrace every negative notion and worst-case scenario. The worst-case scenario that is remotely viable in this case is stagflation so that is where the chatter is. For every piece of news, people are inventing new ways to hate the market and convince the person next to them to dump stocks. In a market like this with most people being sellers, it wouldn't take anything at all positive to create a buying stampede. In this kind of setupLet’s be real the last few months have not been all that funHistorically 15% down on the S&P is not unusual, even the 20% correction on the Nasdaq is not unusual. You can have episodes like this and not only regain ATH but exceed the all-time high in no time. On the other hand, long-running bear markets start this way. Lucky for us, you can’t have a sustained bear market without a recession, and we aren’t having that. At some point, the market will adjust valuation, create a base and begin to rise again. The market rises about 80% of the time, so without a degrading economy, you may have a momentary fall to the 20% level but are likely to bounce back. That is kind of where we are now, valuations have been adjusted downward, for a laundry list of reasons, Covid, inflation, Putin’s war, Interest hikes that could hit the economy. I admit we have had quite a run of negativity. I also admit that the indexes have not found a support level. However we are getting very close, the forward PE is about 18 times on the S&P, which should be the right valuation even at +2.5% on the 10-year.Prediction timeI am not saying we will take off like a rocket, we had instead very rocky trading last week. I do believe that leading to the Fed announcement we could have some weakness and then a decent pop on the news conference, as I expect Powell to find his dovish voice again. I guess this is another prediction. The reason why I am saying Powell will sound conciliatory is the likelihood of a default of sovereign debt by Russia. This might have a bigger effect on European banks than domestic, the Fed may fear that it might disrupt the liquidity of the US bond market. Our banks have been through all kinds of simulations for years and are not allowed to leverage up anywhere near where banks were in 2007 when we had the housing bubble. This may yet be another reason for the market to sell off when the default is announced perhaps in a week or 2. I think this will be a very good opportunity to confirm that we have finally found that base. Before then I think we get a decent pop from Powell’s performanceWe haven’t achieved a base as yet but definitely have a trading rangeWe first touched back to 4200 on the S&P in January, we’ve trading around this level to now. We have been chopping around this level and higher. We are not yet in a downtrend on the S&P. Let’s take a look at the chart.seekingalpha.comWell, nothing is screaming at me, but this 4200ish level could be a base. If my prediction is correct, looking at this chart I could see S&P reaching 4300, if we can sustain a rally for more than one day.Markets like this take a lot of attention and self-controlThough it feels very stressful, and not as much fun to be in the market, I require myself to review the facts and still find much to be optimistic regarding prospects for a strong finish to 2022. I could very well envision reaching higher highs (5200+?) before December. Don’t let your emotions get in the way of cutting losers. I won't say I am perfect on that score, but I try to be aware when I am emotionally overly attached. There's a fine line between having conviction and being emotionally attached. Trading is like any other high-performance activity, you get to a level where mental strength and self-awareness are just as important to success as technique or tactics. You need those qualities to monitor your mental state and whether you are overly attached to anyone's position and have the strength to counter that tendency. You must also have the mental strength to maintain conviction to hold a position if you have done the best to vet it from a fundamental side and technical aspect. It takes guts to watch one of your stocks fall further and further and not let it get to you.Amazon (AMZN) announced a 1 to 20 split. I predicted this weeks ago. Here is what I think they do next. The week ending February 5th, I wrote in my weekly analysis that AMZN will likely be the next to announce a split. I am basing my speculation on what happens next by who Andrew Jassy is, and also something I thought made a ton of sense years ago, and that is to spin off AWS. AWS is by all rights a very substantial company in its own right and could be worth $750B to 1 Trillion on its own. AWS really has little to do with the rest of AMZN. It just makes a ton of sense for the shareholders to have the company trade separately if only to boost the value of AMZN stock. As you may already know Jassy was the CEO of AWS before he was named CEO of all of AMZN. AWS is the fastest-growing part of AMZN, providing huge cash flow to fund the other parts of AMZN. The split still makes sense, AMZN could hold a special class of stock that gives them a dividend or hive off a huge amount of debt while interest rates are so low. The fact Jassy would see his baby trade as an independent creation is just a bonus. The boost in capitalization via the spin-off and the present value of a huge chunk of change to fund operations for years to come is a good trade-off. Also, the spin-off would lower the heat on the FCC suing them as a monopoly, which would be a huge distraction. The fact that he split the company and announced a buyback after years of not buying shares, tells me that he wants to boost the stock price. If he keeps the buyback as an ongoing program, the AWS is the ultimate move for shareholder value.I don’t have a lot of exciting news about new trades. Really my current role right now is to try to manage my current positions and use the volatility to my advantage. So not a lot of visible movement but a lot of watchful waiting. Buying the dip yes, but is this the lowest low? Can the stock go lower? When my positions are green are they high enough to trim shares? That is less fun than falling in love with a new trade.stocks can go lower, however, I do believe that the upside at this point for many tech names more than compensates the risk. Why do I harp on tech? Precisely because it has become very unfashionable. Many of the wise men and women have eschewed growth stocks, especially stocks that were the most esteemed only a few months ago. I am a reflexive contrarian, and this year has been building up to be my biggest contrarian play ever.My TradesFirst, the bad news was I had a position in DocuSign (DOCU) they announced earnings and revenue that was very good but forward guidance disappointed me. I promptly sold the position at 78 in the aftermarket. I really like the business model, so at some point, once DOCU finally finds support I will try to leg into it. Meanwhile, I will use the funds freed up from this name to buy more Upstart (UPST).Meta Platforms (FB) spent $44.5 billion on share buybacks in 2021 leading the company to repurchase 8.4% of the current market cap. The stock is starting to have solid downside protection. It should continue to buy in shares at the same rate this year. FB recently had a gap down, charting shows that stocks tend to fill in gaps. Let’s take a look at a chart.seekingalpha.comOn Friday FB sold down below 190, I think that is a great level. I already started building a position, I am hoping it allows me to acquire more in the 180s.Asana (ASAN) got punished for not projecting profits near term because they want to re-invest. I have a small position in it. I took profits a while ago. I’m going to rebuild the position again, they said they are giving up profits now to add capabilities to the product. I believe the stock will regain some altitude once the market comes back to its senses and reward the forward-thinking. You are supposed to invest in the future. If the CEO had no credibility and the track record of this company was bad I wouldn't buy in. Instead, it has an exceptional growth pattern, and the stock is on sale.XPO Logistics, Inc.(XPO) stock rallied more than 8% in after-market trading on Tuesday after the logistics company announced plans to split itself into two publicly traded companies, a deal it said would be tax-free to shareholders. One of the companies will be one of the largest US companies in the LTL trucking business. The other part would encompass XPO's freight brokerage business, which matches loads from shipping customers to available trucks to carry them, and the other is its U.S. trucking business. This is essentially a technology adjacent cloud application business. I am very excited to receive this new company. Its European business and North American intermodal operations would be sold. The company said it expects to complete the spin-off in the fourth quarter of 2022, subject to the final approval of the XPO board. In a presentation to shareholders, XPO pegged 2021 revenue from its freight brokerage company at $4.8 billion, and from the trucking business at $4.1 billion. Shares of XPO ended the regular trading day up 2.7%.Expedia (EXPE) Strong revenue growth FCF and mostly domestic travel so less affected by Ukraine. Still, this name has been hammered on every development in Ukraine. I currently have Call options, now I will accumulate the underlying equities.Airbnb (ABNB) I think I bought this stock near its bottom, at about 150. I started this position 2 weeks ago and I need to fill this one up. I am hoping to get some in the 140s. I like the reopening related tech companies since Covid is in the rearview mirror.PayPal (PYPL) is another once high flier that has fallen so much that it’s practically a value play. I have been adding to my position under 100, and I plan on continuing to do so this week.Datadog (DDOG) I managed to do a fast money trade with DDOG in the aftermath of its earnings. I started buying it again, and I guess I should have waited even though I started buying at a lower level than the last time. I am pretty confident that DDOG is a quality name.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9065646023,"gmtCreate":1652191767862,"gmtModify":1676535048917,"author":{"id":"3580168616843436","authorId":"3580168616843436","name":"林欣霓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28a5c6d65cfcd6a5024f3b15f4975e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580168616843436","authorIdStr":"3580168616843436"},"htmlText":"X","listText":"X","text":"X","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065646023","repostId":2219220927,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9032415197,"gmtCreate":1647422136966,"gmtModify":1676534227892,"author":{"id":"3580300192386766","authorId":"3580300192386766","name":"ParableTalen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94daa928259bc550d0ee26f23a953bb8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580300192386766","authorIdStr":"3580300192386766"},"htmlText":"How come you have so much money to buy the dip?","listText":"How come you have so much money to buy the dip?","text":"How come you have so much money to buy the dip?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032415197","repostId":2219220927,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9032499068,"gmtCreate":1647417205061,"gmtModify":1676534227211,"author":{"id":"3584415246670106","authorId":"3584415246670106","name":"Oldie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09a7a0c9fe9b5b416d6f049746ddfa29","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584415246670106","authorIdStr":"3584415246670106"},"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032499068","repostId":2219220927,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9032407825,"gmtCreate":1647416537583,"gmtModify":1676534227157,"author":{"id":"3574399983193226","authorId":"3574399983193226","name":"MFME","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c7d2325aa9eb91869c4c7144270a75a","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574399983193226","authorIdStr":"3574399983193226"},"htmlText":"Crash or no crash.... money just get churned around","listText":"Crash or no crash.... money just get churned around","text":"Crash or no crash.... money just get churned around","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032407825","repostId":2219220927,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9032404583,"gmtCreate":1647416310768,"gmtModify":1676534227141,"author":{"id":"3575240466494143","authorId":"3575240466494143","name":"ASCNMN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e7cbe60e92249aab78ace30dafa5d20","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575240466494143","authorIdStr":"3575240466494143"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032404583","repostId":2219220927,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9032404207,"gmtCreate":1647416292329,"gmtModify":1676534227126,"author":{"id":"3586239264180716","authorId":"3586239264180716","name":"tanwwwww","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/801a9c286ad7f9c713a873dd2a715364","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586239264180716","authorIdStr":"3586239264180716"},"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032404207","repostId":2219220927,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":329,"commentSize":75,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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