Alibaba: Why I'm Not Selling A Single Share

seekingalpha2022-03-20

SummaryAlibaba has been a challenging investment over the last year, dropping by as much as 77% from its ATH.Despite increasing revenues by more than tenfold, its stock price dropped down to levels ...

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Comments

Tehsiewdai
2022-03-21
Tehsiewdai
👍
Dawang
2022-03-21
Dawang
Keep the faith on Baba
destinedtwo
2022-03-21
destinedtwo
Enter with caveats
JLKang
2022-03-21
JLKang
Still too risky for me
CY Tan
2022-03-21
CY Tan
Any visible risk on their cloud business? Understand that government setup state owned enterpris to compete.
NsaidN
2022-03-21
NsaidN
👍

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Why I'm Not Selling A Single Share\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-20 10:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496224-alibaba-why-im-not-selling-single-share><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba has been a challenging investment over the last year, dropping by as much as 77% from its ATH.Despite increasing revenues by more than tenfold, its stock price dropped down to levels ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496224-alibaba-why-im-not-selling-single-share\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BABA","symbol_name":"阿里巴巴","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496224-alibaba-why-im-not-selling-single-share","article_id":"2220430742","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220430742","pubTimestamp":1647741823,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryAlibaba has been a challenging investment over the last year, dropping by as much as 77% from","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW"},"translate_title":"阿里巴巴-SW：为什么我一股也不卖","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1,"09988":0.6},"content_text":"SummaryAlibaba has been a challenging investment over the last year, dropping by as much as 77% from its ATH.Despite increasing revenues by more than tenfold, its stock price dropped down to levels not seen since its early post-IPO days.However, things are likely to change in a big way for Alibaba investors.Much of the transitory detrimental factors are now behind the company, and more emphasis should go towards positive developments now.Alibaba's business remains solid, growth should resume, and the company will likely become more profitable in future years.Philiphotographer/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesI began investing in Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) in early 2015, shortly after the company IPOed in the U.S. Incidentally, I started buying the stock at a similar price point to Alibaba's recent low ($70-80). I would be lying if I said that this was not a challenging investment, but Alibaba is remarkably cheap right now. Furthermore, the ongoing concerns surrounding the company are overexaggerated. Moreover, the Chinese government is now taking market-friendly measures to stabilize markets and support stock prices. We could be looking at a tectonic shift in China, and Alibaba shares will likely get a substantial bid moving forward. Despite the recent monster 40% rebound, Alibaba remains a strong buy around the $100 level. Additionally, the company's share price should continue appreciating as we advance through 2022 and beyond and could reach $300 within the next three years.Alibaba Skyrockets On Beijing NewsBABA (StockCharts)We just saw one of the most violent up moves in history. Alibaba soared by approximately $100 billion in market cap in a single day. China will provide additional support to the Chinese economy through monetary policy, and the government reaffirmed that it supports foreign IPOs. The report also stated that China supports listings overseas and will work with the SEC to resolve any issues.Concerns over increased regulation, possible delisting fears, and other transitory concerns led Alibaba to unprecedented declines over the last year. The stock cratered by about 77% (peak to trough) from its recent highs, illustrating one of the most significant market cap declines. Recent selling became indiscriminate and panic-driven, likely leading to one of the best buying opportunities in Alibaba's history. The most striking thing is that nothing material changed about Alibaba's business. The company's growth slowed a bit more than expected, and it's going through a transitory margin compression phase. However, this is not something that warrants a 77% decline or anything even close, and Alibaba's stock remains exceptionally cheap.Alibaba Back Then And NowBack then (in 2015), when I first began buying Alibaba, its stock was around $80. In recent sessions, Alibaba's stock dipped below $80 for the first time in about six years. In 2015 Alibaba's revenues were $12.3 billion, and the company recorded approximately $131.6 billion in revenues in its trailing twelve months (\"TTM\"). Its gross profit was at about $8.4 billion then, and nearly $50 billion in its TTM. I think you get the picture here. Revenues and many profitability metrics have surged in the past six years, yet Alibaba's stock price was back at its post-IPO lows in recent days. I've written many articles on Alibaba, I own the stock, and I continue to argue that Alibaba's stock price is unjustly low and has a strong probability of moving significantly higher in future years.Alibaba's Stock Is Remarkably CheapHow cheap is Alibaba, even after its unprecedented 40% move higher? Consensus EPS estimates are for approximately $10 in 2023, illustrating that at $100, the stock is only trading at ten times forward EPS estimates. If we look at Alibaba's revenue projections, we see that the company should still grow revenues by 10-15% in the coming years. Moreover, Alibaba has the potential to become more profitable in future years, suggesting that its EPS projections may be muted and lowballed. The company's growth dynamic, profitability potential, and low valuation illustrate that its stock remains exceptionally cheap and has a high probability of appreciating substantially in future years.The Bottom Line: Not Selling A Single ShareI'm not selling a single Alibaba share here. As I've written many times, Alibaba and Chinese stocks, in general, went through a transitory phase where overly negative news flow put enormous pressure on stock prices. This problematic period lasted for over one year and caused stock prices, including Alibaba's, to decline to obscenely oversold and undervalued levels. Now that the negative news is behind us, we will likely see more emphasis on positive developments regarding Alibaba. The company does not face significant threats from the regulation, and the U.S. delisting fears are overblown. Moreover, Alibaba remains a dominant, market-leading e-commerce giant that should continue growing double-digit for several years. Furthermore, the company's stock is dirt cheap right now, and Alibaba's share price will likely appreciate considerably as the company advances in future years.Here's what Alibaba's financials could look like as the company moves forward into 2025:Year2022202320242025Revenues$151B$167B$184B$203BRevenue growth15.3%10.6%10.2%10.3%EPS$10.25$10.55$13.12$15.85Forward P/E12151820Price$127$197$285$375Source: The AuthorAs we advance, Alibaba's revenue growth should continue to expand, and the company's profitability should continue improving. Moreover, the company's transitory negative news flow stage should continue to pass. Therefore, sentiment should strengthen, and Alibaba's P/E multiple should gradually expand. It is not uncommon for companies with similar growth and profitability dynamics to trade at 20-30 times EPS estimates or higher. Thus, Alibaba should not have a problem getting back up to a 20 P/E multiple in future years. As sentiment improves, its share price could appreciate considerably in the coming years, to my price target of $375 in 2025.Risks To ConsiderWhile I'm bullish on Alibaba, various factors could occur that may derail my expectations for the company. For instance, the regulation could clamp down further on Alibaba and other Chinese tech giants. Moreover, U.S. regulators could decide to delist the company's ADRs. Increased competition could impact Alibaba's growth and profits. The company's growth could be worse than my current anticipation. Also, Alibaba's profitability could continue to struggle for various reasons. There are multiple risks to this investment, which is why shares are very cheap right now. In my view, Alibaba remains an elevated risk/high reward investment, and investors should carefully examine the risks before opening a position in Alibaba stock.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9034173075,"gmtCreate":1647837339813,"gmtModify":1676534270509,"author":{"id":"4094205289094410","authorId":"4094205289094410","name":"Tehsiewdai","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2ca6ca2b432f68beb8a9deee6b33300b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034173075","repostId":2220430742,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9034179995,"gmtCreate":1647837015131,"gmtModify":1676534270478,"author":{"id":"3579482809178950","authorId":"3579482809178950","name":"Dawang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f01f2346125f600328ffd48beb3a4c","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Keep the faith on Baba","listText":"Keep the faith on Baba","text":"Keep the faith on Baba","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034179995","repostId":2220430742,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9034164830,"gmtCreate":1647828176939,"gmtModify":1676534269658,"author":{"id":"3581592951458813","authorId":"3581592951458813","name":"destinedtwo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a05867608028325a0e72f28958bea937","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Enter with caveats","listText":"Enter with caveats","text":"Enter with caveats","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034164830","repostId":2220430742,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9034118710,"gmtCreate":1647824852124,"gmtModify":1676534269064,"author":{"id":"4094622337222610","authorId":"4094622337222610","name":"JLKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33ab643c577c9cadc6055155d6382c3a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Still too risky for me&nbsp;","listText":"Still too risky for me&nbsp;","text":"Still too risky for me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034118710","repostId":2220430742,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9034118366,"gmtCreate":1647824820585,"gmtModify":1676534269025,"author":{"id":"4100859883182300","authorId":"4100859883182300","name":"CY Tan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b90d9b6ee1c08462aecf7e7fc71fd921","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Any visible risk on their cloud business? Understand that government setup state owned enterpris to compete.","listText":"Any visible risk on their cloud business? Understand that government setup state owned enterpris to compete.","text":"Any visible risk on their cloud business? Understand that government setup state owned enterpris to compete.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034118366","repostId":2220430742,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9034197908,"gmtCreate":1647822962742,"gmtModify":1676534268497,"author":{"id":"4100083861976500","authorId":"4100083861976500","name":"NsaidN","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d15f07d9e6c9731db5c4289b5dc90f27","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034197908","repostId":2220430742,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1934,"commentSize":605,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2220430742"}