美银复盘1970s：大通胀时代下的资产轮动

华尔街见闻2022-03-19

上周，美联储加息落地，美股却大幅反弹。对此，有“华尔街最悲观分析师”之称的美银策略师Michael Hartnett认为，这场反弹不过是熊市的“暂时停火”，“衰退冲击”即将开始。Hartnett解释道，历史性的逼空在很大程度上促成了市场的大范围融涨：这不过是一场“熊市停火反弹”（"bear market ceasefire rally" ），因为世界继续陷入滞胀的炼狱，真正的熊市要到衰退开始时才会...

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kenp
2022-03-20
kenp
Oh
666六六六666
2022-03-20
666六六六666
[得意] [得意] [得意] [得意] [得意]
Youn7276
2022-03-20
Youn7276
Ok
Yeong
2022-03-19
Yeong
Y
是龙不是虫
2022-03-19
是龙不是虫
Ok
Yoongc
2022-03-19
Yoongc
ok

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），因为世界继续陷入滞胀的炼狱，真正的熊市要到衰退开始时才会开始，时间是2022年下半年的某个时候。Hartnett认为，2020年代利率的长期低点叠加着通胀，意味着快速且不稳定的从繁荣到萧条的经济和投资周期。以史为鉴，Hartnett复盘了上世纪七十年代大通胀时代下的资产轮动。在这个时期的初期，市场最初是看涨实物资产、大宗商品、通货膨胀保值债券(TIPS)、小盘价值股和新兴市场。然而，短短几年之后，在1973/4年的大滞胀冲击中，只有大宗商品持续坚挺。到1974年至1981年，就到了买进小盘价值股、房地产的时候，此时大宗商品依然表现不错。接下来会发生什么？这将取决于美联储是否有勇气像1981年沃尔克那样，在短期内将利率提高到20%，即使这也意味着风险资产的崩溃。对于如何对冲接下来市场可能面临的痛苦，Hartnett也给出了建议：最好的衰退对冲是押注“收益率曲线变陡”最好的滞胀对冲是押注美元贬值最好的软着陆对冲是押注非美国股票","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9034079239,"gmtCreate":1647742588105,"gmtModify":1676534262239,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"htmlText":"Oh&nbsp;","listText":"Oh&nbsp;","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034079239","repostId":2220670637,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9034069579,"gmtCreate":1647736779740,"gmtModify":1676534261254,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4105324555361630","authorIdStr":"4105324555361630"},"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意] [得意] [得意] [得意] [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034069579","repostId":2220670637,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9034090814,"gmtCreate":1647727332263,"gmtModify":1676534260162,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034090814","repostId":2220670637,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9035779564,"gmtCreate":1647705461688,"gmtModify":1676534259674,"author":{"id":"3570864790458781","authorId":"3570864790458781","name":"Yeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93092185d223c6e53fcfd64303836612","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3570864790458781","authorIdStr":"3570864790458781"},"htmlText":"Y","listText":"Y","text":"Y","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035779564","repostId":2220670637,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9035749217,"gmtCreate":1647702631499,"gmtModify":1676534259447,"author":{"id":"3582761146933339","authorId":"3582761146933339","name":"是龙不是虫","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/88c6c9008bca5a73fbaab442050a9ab3","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b75ce0c34afff716602792a5d0929dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582761146933339","authorIdStr":"3582761146933339"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035749217","repostId":2220670637,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9035751472,"gmtCreate":1647699724057,"gmtModify":1676534259279,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035751472","repostId":2220670637,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":202,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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