市场正在形成共识：美国经济衰退的风险越来越大

华尔街见闻2022-04-11

经济学家们认为，随着美国经济持续过热，通胀率不断攀升，美联储可能会采取更严厉的应对措施，美国经济衰退的风险越来越大。《华尔街日报》本月对65位商业、学术和金融预测人士展开访问调查，受访的经济学家认为，未来12个月内美国经济陷入衰退的概率为28%，高于1月份的18%和一年前的13%。RSM US LLP首席经济学家Joe Brusuelas指出：随着美联储逐渐提高利率以应对高通胀，一系列供应冲击也正...

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2022-04-11
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Brusuelas指出：随着美联储逐渐提高利率以应对高通胀，一系列供应冲击也正接踵而来，美国经济衰退的风险持续上升。追赶式加息或将引发衰退调查显示，经济学家大幅下调了对今年的经济增长预期。平均而言，其预计2022年全年经通胀调整后的GDP将同比增长2.6%，较半年前的预测值下调1%。美国2月CPI同比上升7.9%，高企的通胀率加大了经济下滑风险，另一方面美联储正积极采取行动，试图在不会导致支出减少和失业率上升的情况下为通胀降温。最新的衰退概率略低于2019年9月的峰值34.8%，当时由于美联储前一年的加息，经济增长放缓，并且在前一个月，美联储启动了自2008年以来的首次降息。此外，经济学家预测的衰退概率在2007年8月达到了同样的水平，之后衰退确实到来。但当2011年8月达到类似水平时，经济持续增长。上个月，美联储开启加息周期，将利率上调25个基点，并预计年底前将再上调六次利率，堪称近15年来最激进的步伐。约84%的受访经济学家预计，美联储将在5月初加息50个基点，超过57%的人预计年底前将看到了多次加息50个基点。经济学家预测中值显示，美联储将在2022年底前将利率调整至2.125%，然后在明年年底前调整至2.875%。除了追赶式加息外，经济学家还预计通胀率将保持在高位，预计2022年6月的平均通胀率为7.5%，到12月通胀率将降至5.5%。受访者估计，到2023年底通胀将回落至2.9%，与美联储2%的目标相差不远。高通胀是经济增长的主要风险，削弱了消费能力和消费者信心，并促使美联储收紧货币政策。经济学家们对推高通胀的因素意见不一。三分之一的人提到了商品、食品和天然气价格，15%的人则认为是俄乌冲突。AC Cutts & Associates LLC经济学家Amy Crews Cutts预计，通货膨胀将更高、更持久，主要驱动因素为大宗商品价格，乌克兰冲突进一步加剧了通胀。Cutts较为悲观，其认为：尽管货币政策对大宗商品价格几乎没有影响，但总体通胀水平走高迫使美联储采取行动，不与之抗争在政治上是不可能的。而美联储抑制通胀的行动将很快导致衰退，未来12个月经济衰退的可能性为70%。工资增长或成最大的通胀威胁27%的受访者认为工资增长或劳动力市场紧张是最大的通胀威胁。荷兰合作银行高级策略师Philip Marey说：乌克兰危机将在短期内再次提振通胀，已开始的工资-价格螺旋上升将对通胀构成了更持久的威胁。在这种螺旋式上升中，工人们获得了更高的工资，以支付不断上涨的物价，而更高的工资促使企业进一步提高价格。由于美国已经处于螺旋式上升通道，美联储将不得不提高利率，从而打破通胀螺旋，这足以引发经济衰退。Robert Fry Economics LLC分析师Robert Fry认为，未来12个月经济收缩的可能性仅为15%，但在未来两年内，这一可能性将远远超过50%，目前预计2023年最后一个季度将开始为期三个季度的衰退。Robert Fry指出：关键问题在于去年的财政和货币政策导致的需求过剩，而通胀得到控制所需的时间越长，衰退就越严重。尽管经济衰退的风险不断上升的共识正在形成，但大多数经济学家（63%）仍然认为，美联储能够在不引发衰退的情况下控制通胀，实现“软着陆”。许多经济学家表示，鉴于失业率接近历史新低、收入稳步上升以及消费者债务水平相对较低，美国经济完全有能力承受货币紧缩。加利福尼亚大学安德森管理学院高级经济学家Leo 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