极端分化！美股、美债、各板块都在讲述相反的“故事”

华尔街见闻2022-04-13

摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson指出，美股内部结构表现出严重的增长恐慌，而债券和标普500指数走势则反映增长尚可，然而这种背离是不可持续的，经济增长将令人失望。近期，美国股债市场的分化愈加明显，美债持续遭抛售，美股却依然坚挺。不仅如此，美股内部也出现严重分化，成长型股票遭受加息预期的猛烈冲击，同时防御型股票表现显著优于周期股。一些分析师也注意到了美股、美债以及美股内部结构背离加剧，美股...

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Comments

JWZ137
2022-04-14
JWZ137
Wow
Youn7276
2022-04-14
Youn7276
Ok
Yoongc
2022-04-13
Yoongc
ok
新手520
2022-04-13
新手520
6
Sunc
2022-04-13
Sunc
ok
hhyw
2022-04-13
hhyw
好

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US stocks, US debt, and various sectors are telling opposite \"stories\"","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f106d60dad179cfb7a417ae1194b047","symbols_score_info":{"BND":1,"ZTmain":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.6,"ZBmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.6,"TNmain":0.6,"IEI":0.6,"TLT":0.6,"SHY":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"GOVT":0.6},"content_text":"摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson指出，美股内部结构表现出严重的增长恐慌，而债券和标普500指数走势则反映增长尚可，然而这种背离是不可持续的，经济增长将令人失望。近期，美国股债市场的分化愈加明显，美债持续遭抛售，美股却依然坚挺。不仅如此，美股内部也出现严重分化，成长型股票遭受加息预期的猛烈冲击，同时防御型股票表现显著优于周期股。一些分析师也注意到了美股、美债以及美股内部结构背离加剧，美股空头、摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson在周一的一份报告中指出，债券市场和标准普尔500指数对经济前景过于乐观。Michael Wilson在报告中提到：我们有了一个极端分化的例子，美股内部结构表现出严重的增长担忧恐慌，而债券和标普500指数走势则反映增长尚可，其中美国债市则显示经济将保持强劲。Wilson指出，股市在11月开始意识到了一点，自那时高估值股票表现极其糟糕，现在防守型股票，尤其是公用事业板块，正处于有记录以来表现最好的时期之一。美债方面，随着美联储开启加息周期，近一个月10年期美债收益率持续攀升，月波动幅度为史上最大。从这一点上，股票市场的内部结构再次偏离了债券市场的信息。与此同时，与债券或标普500相比，股票市场的内部正在讲述一个截然不同的故事。股票风险溢价走低，标普500指数GFC处于2008年以来的最低水平。正如Mike Wilson最近几周多次指出的，鉴于市场面临着巨大风险，股市回报较低。此外，从2021年中期开始，下跌比率显示出市场广度的明显停顿，并在2022年第一季度消退，这标志着市场趋势从周期早中期环境到晚期背景的明显变化。最后，Wilson指出，目前的指数估值仍然容易受到增长放缓的影响，市盈率可能继续下降。股息随当前市场估值增加，可能是因为许多企业当前的业绩表现较好。但这种背离是不可持续的，到时候周期股将受影响最严重。美股内部的“增长恐慌”与债券和股指之间的分化，将被证明增长是不可持续的。加息步伐加快是另一个警告信号，表明10年期美债收益率可能存在超调。总的来看，Wilson认为，美联储很难在不影响经济的情况下实施如此大规模的紧缩，经济增长将令人失望，并建议投资者坚持选择防御性股票。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9080251854,"gmtCreate":1649894731785,"gmtModify":1676534599767,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575067142498671","authorIdStr":"3575067142498671"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080251854","repostId":2227169474,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9080613319,"gmtCreate":1649884893853,"gmtModify":1676534595945,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080613319","repostId":2227169474,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9080153480,"gmtCreate":1649859927412,"gmtModify":1676534592113,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080153480","repostId":2227169474,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9080127354,"gmtCreate":1649859664109,"gmtModify":1676534592024,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080127354","repostId":2227169474,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9080124668,"gmtCreate":1649859611197,"gmtModify":1676534592016,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080124668","repostId":2227169474,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9080303046,"gmtCreate":1649840248862,"gmtModify":1676534587642,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080303046","repostId":2227169474,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":62,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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