全球央行加息潮：一次加50个基点才是新常态？

华尔街见闻2022-04-14

今年以来，全球有30多家新兴市场央行一次性加息至少50个基点，比如巴基斯坦本月将利率提高了250个基点，紧随其后，饱受危机困扰的斯里兰卡也将利率提高了700个基点。随着通胀风暴愈演愈烈，目前一次性加息50个点的趋势正在发达国家市场显现。周三新西兰成为首个一次加息50个基点的发达国家，随后加拿大也加入该行列。目前市场关注焦点自于，什么时候轮到美联储？新西兰联储：以22年来最大幅度加息周三，新西兰联储...

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谷岳HZ
2022-04-14
谷岳HZ
nice

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Mary Daly在内的多位联储官员曾表态，如有必要控制通胀，他们愿在5月FOMC会议上提高加息幅度至50基点。3月美联储会议纪要也强化了这一点：3月会议上，多名联储官员认为，若通胀和经济形势需要，未来可能要一次或者更多次加息50个基点。市场对美联储可能在下次会议上加息50基点的猜测也已经升温，期货价格显示，美联储下次会议加息50个基点的可能性为88%。而周二公布的3月美国CPI升幅为1981年12月以来最大，且涵盖更多商品和服务，更加剧了这种可能性。人们的想法是，现在物价如此火爆，货币当局需要更大胆地抑制它们，否则如果通胀变得根深蒂固，以后就必须采取更多行动。新西兰联储在总结其政策时表示，他们担心通胀预期正变得根深蒂固，鉴于全球经济环境高度不确定，现在更大的举措也为未来提供了更大的政策灵活性。目前市场预计欧洲央行本周的会议不会采取行动，但面临创纪录通胀的决策者们将密切关注此次会议，以寻找更多可能在今年晚些时候加息的线索。如果真的大幅度加息，市场怎么办？显而易见的风险是，行动迅速也可能动摇市场，并导致衰退。一些人担心，紧缩的货币政策无法解决供应冲击造成的通胀上升。周三公布的英国3月CPI同比增长7.0%，再创30年来最高纪录，英国央行也面临进一步加息的压力，然而，在英国2月份GDP增长率仅为0.1%之后，通胀上升将进一步引发人们对经济陷入滞胀风险的担忧。对于市场而言，这无疑是一个不稳定的时期。据彭博，美国银行对基金经理进行的最新调查发现，他们对全球增长的乐观情绪处于历史最低点，而对货币政策错误的担忧处于历史最高水平。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9089017992,"gmtCreate":1649931974125,"gmtModify":1676534609682,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089017992","repostId":2227646245,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":37,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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