Palantir: The Recovery Will Be Swift

seekingalpha2022-04-25

Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesAt one point directly after its IPO, Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) was one of the hottest trades on Wall Street. This secretive machine learning and big data stock ...

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Comments

tigernaut
2022-04-25
tigernaut
👍
慢的老人
2022-04-25
慢的老人
"While Palantir has been one of the biggest holes in my portfolio this year, I remain strongly bullish on this stock and am invested for the long term." Is Seekingalpha also trying to pump and dump?
MSTAN
2022-04-25
MSTAN
👌👌
eo1668
2022-04-25
eo1668
under water[Facepalm]
YueShan
2022-04-25
YueShan
Good⭐⭐⭐
romanc9
2022-04-25
romanc9
What is the TP for 2022 or 2023?

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249

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This secretive machine learning and big data stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503192-palantir-recovery-swift\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Recovery Will Be Swift</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Recovery Will Be Swift\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-25 10:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503192-palantir-recovery-swift><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesAt one point directly after its IPO, Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) was one of the hottest trades on Wall Street. This secretive machine learning and big data stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503192-palantir-recovery-swift\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4023","symbol_name":"应用软件","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503192-palantir-recovery-swift","article_id":"2229419405","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229419405","pubTimestamp":1650853161,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesAt one point directly after its IPO, Palantir (NYSE:PLTR","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4543":"AI","BK4547":"WSB热门概念"},"translate_title":"Palantir：复苏会很快","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":1},"content_text":"Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesAt one point directly after its IPO, Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) was one of the hottest trades on Wall Street. This secretive machine learning and big data stock had become a household name and saw its shares triple from its initial debut - but unsurprisingly, Palantir has also become one of the biggest victims of the recent tech crash.Relative to highs above $35, Palantir has now given up two-thirds of its value, the equivalent of about $50 billion in market cap. Year to date alone, Palantir stock has shed 35%. While even I can't argue that Palantir had run a little hot last year and was in need of a slight correction, as usual poor sentiment has taken the crash too far - leaving Palantir in very buyable territory.Data by YChartsWhile Palantir has been one of the biggest holes in my portfolio this year, I remain strongly bullish on this stock and am invested for the long term. It's difficult to regard Palantir's venerable customer base, its best-of-breed series of both commercial and government products, and its visionary leadership and not conclude that Palantir will continue to dominate enterprise software over the next few decades.There has been a lot of negativity around Palantir recently, but almost none of it is company-specific. It's all about de-risking portfolios and expensive valuations in the face of rising interest rates - which I view to be shorter-term arguments that don't in any way diminish the attractiveness of Palantir in the long run. This is a company that has claimed a $100+ billion TAM, with its main products each adding market opportunity and becoming behemoths in their own rights over time:Palantir TAM (Palantir Q4 investor deck)Here's a rundown of the key pieces of the bullish thesis for Palantir:Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways. Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.Growth at scale. Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).Stepping up go-to-market momentum. Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.One foot in the public sector, one foot in private. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.Free cash flow. Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from. many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).Stay long here: Palantir is still a growth stock in the early days of becoming a tech mega-cap.Growth has sustained, thanks to commercial progressPalantir's original claim to fame, and the reason it attained its \"hush hush\" reputation in Silicon Valley, is that it was the software that helped the U.S. government track down Osama bin Laden. While Palantir made its reputation as a government contractor, and while government revenue and massive federal deals continue to forge the lion's share of Palantir's business, the company has been able to sustain its rapid growth rates primarily by boosting its commercial presence.First, on overall growth: in Q4, Palantir's most recent quarter, the company grew revenue at a 34% y/y pace to $432.8 million, beating Wall Street's expectations of $418.1 million (+30% y/y) by a four-point margin. The Q4 earnings summary is shown below:Palantir Q4 results (Palantir Q4 earnings release)Helping to index the company's growth rate upward has been its progress on the enterprise side. Palantir describes its enterprise software product, Palantir Foundry, as a product that is now as essential to modern enterprises as Amazon AWS was to building cloud applications. Foundry is an OS (operating system) product that helps integrate data to power applications and has thousands of use cases across all industries.In Q4, US commercial revenue growth accelerated for the third straight quarter to 132% y/y growth. And at the end of 2021, Palantir counted 80 enterprise customers. Now, you can read that number two ways: you can be impressed that it represents 371% y/y growth, but you can also imagine there is still ample room for expansion into the rest of the Fortune 500.U.S. enterprise revenue now also comprises 13% of total revenue:Palantir US commercial revenue progression (Palantir Q4 investor presentation)Yet the company is preparing for even more growth on the enterprise side. It entered into 2021 with a very lean sales headcount, having only 12 total salespeople focused on U.S. enterprises. In 2021 the company made deep strides on sales hiring, which is now up to 80 strong. More importantly, however, the company enters into 2022 with 25 tenured salespeople, more than quadruple the year-ago quarter: allowing Palantir to cover far more breadth this year than last.Palantir sales headcount expansion (Palantir Q4 investor presentation)Hiring, and growth overall, remain top of mind for Palantir execs. Per CEO Alex Karp's remarks on the most recent earnings call:We're in the market to hire aggressively across Palantir, honestly, mostly not salespeople because we believe we live and die based on our ability to build products of tomorrow delivered today.But we're hiring -- going to hire in the range of 200 people. Hiring and getting value out of them are two different things. And so I think one of the things that we will see going forward is how do we play these salespeople, so that we can get as much lift from them as we're getting from the product itself. And we're at the beginning of that. And so it is the part to people we've fully indoctrinated or as normal people might say, trained, are effective, but we've never done this before. There will be -- that's a process, we're also looking at ways to learn from other companies, but that's going to happen over the next couple of years.\"Profitability has made huge leapsIn spite of Palantir's clear focus on growth, though, we can look across the entire spate of Palantir's profitability metrics and see marked improvement. Earlier on in the company's public debut, investors questioned Palantir's large GAAP losses and concluded that this was, like any other tech company, one that focused on growth at all costs. Now, we're not so sure that argument is valid.First, a look at GAAP margins. GAAP operating margin in Q4 hit a record-high -14%, up thirty-five points from -49% in the year-ago quarter:Palantir margin trends (Palantir Q4 investor presentation)Similarly, adjusted EBITDA grew 13 points for the year FY21 to 32%, thirteen points better than in FY20:Palantir adjusted EBITDA (Palantir Q4 earnings release)And lastly, Palantir generated $424.1 million in free cash flow in FY21, representing a rich 28% free cash flow margin - more than fifty points better than -25% in FY20.Palantir FCF (Palantir Q4 earnings release)The chart below also showcases that, relative to many SaaS peers, Palantir's balance of growth plus FCF margin outranks most competitors:Palantir growth + FCF (Palantir Q4 investor presentation)With this year's market landscape so focused on safety and profitability, Palantir's huge improvements on profitability have given investors exactly the remedy to one of their biggest concerns - and yet, the stock has still slid.Valuation and key takeawaysAt current share prices near $12, Palantir trades at a $25.17 billion market cap. After netting off the $2.52 billion of cash on the company's most recent balance sheet, its enterprise value goes to $22.64 billion.Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are calling for $2.01 billion in consensus revenue for the year FY22, representing 30% y/y growth (considering Karp has committed to \"at least\" 30% growth through FY25, it's highly likely that Palantir's actual growth for the year will land several points higher). Still, if we take that consensus at face value, Palantir trades at 11.3x EV/FY22 revenue - still not cheap by any measure, but less than half of Palantir's peak multiples in the mid-20s.I continue to view the current slide as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy a transformational tech company that is still early on in its path to becoming a tech mega-cap. Stay long here, be patient, and wait for a rebound that I expect will be a swift upward shot.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9084548500,"gmtCreate":1650894954318,"gmtModify":1676534810772,"author":{"id":"3567239827558758","authorId":"3567239827558758","name":"tigernaut","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e331c670eb88443b88c6bdb76224cf","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3567239827558758","idStr":"3567239827558758"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084548500","repostId":2229419405,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084205961,"gmtCreate":1650864919774,"gmtModify":1676534805972,"author":{"id":"3582028884093480","authorId":"3582028884093480","name":"慢的老人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8809bb976396889eb133162af0901b8","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3582028884093480","idStr":"3582028884093480"},"htmlText":"\"While Palantir has been one of the biggest holes in my portfolio this year, I remain strongly bullish on this stock and am invested for the long term.\" Is Seekingalpha also trying to pump and dump?","listText":"\"While Palantir has been one of the biggest holes in my portfolio this year, I remain strongly bullish on this stock and am invested for the long term.\" Is Seekingalpha also trying to pump and dump?","text":"\"While Palantir has been one of the biggest holes in my portfolio this year, I remain strongly bullish on this stock and am invested for the long term.\" Is Seekingalpha also trying to pump and dump?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084205961","repostId":2229419405,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084201444,"gmtCreate":1650864571138,"gmtModify":1676534805852,"author":{"id":"4089461104605170","authorId":"4089461104605170","name":"MSTAN","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/1d0ff53a35c30afecbd1fa0c5ed59f07","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4089461104605170","idStr":"4089461104605170"},"htmlText":"👌👌","listText":"👌👌","text":"👌👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084201444","repostId":2229419405,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084674059,"gmtCreate":1650863425160,"gmtModify":1676534805750,"author":{"id":"3560376076037644","authorId":"3560376076037644","name":"eo1668","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/039a625a00fac8daa05bb87ff64ecd3c","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3560376076037644","idStr":"3560376076037644"},"htmlText":"under water[Facepalm]&nbsp;","listText":"under water[Facepalm]&nbsp;","text":"under water[Facepalm]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084674059","repostId":2229419405,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084672602,"gmtCreate":1650863070515,"gmtModify":1676534805742,"author":{"id":"3583033297199166","authorId":"3583033297199166","name":"YueShan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3583033297199166","idStr":"3583033297199166"},"htmlText":"Good⭐⭐⭐","listText":"Good⭐⭐⭐","text":"Good⭐⭐⭐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084672602","repostId":2229419405,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084644568,"gmtCreate":1650861745571,"gmtModify":1676534805542,"author":{"id":"4102495020619380","authorId":"4102495020619380","name":"romanc9","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76bfe37245defa055adfff7453f1520f","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4102495020619380","idStr":"4102495020619380"},"htmlText":"What is the TP for 2022 or 2023?","listText":"What is the TP for 2022 or 2023?","text":"What is the TP for 2022 or 2023?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084644568","repostId":2229419405,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":249,"commentSize":36,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":7,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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