NIO: It Didn't Fall To Its March Lows - COVID Headwinds Priced In

seekingalpha2022-05-04

Investment ThesisNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) reported an April delivery card that reflected the significant challenges from the recent COVID lockdowns in China. As a result, we believe it could spend the next...

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Comments

GH_82
2022-05-04
GH_82
Nice
Tanyl
2022-05-04
Tanyl
Nio is a good invest
kenong62
2022-05-04
kenong62
Like
VivianChua
2022-05-04
VivianChua
Ok
Jeremysee
2022-05-04
Jeremysee
Heng ar
LYNNTOO
2022-05-04
LYNNTOO
0K

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As a result, we believe it could spend the next...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506509-nio-stock-april-deliveries-covid-headwinds-priced-in\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: It Didn't Fall To Its March Lows - COVID Headwinds Priced In</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: It Didn't Fall To Its March Lows - COVID Headwinds Priced In\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-04 11:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506509-nio-stock-april-deliveries-covid-headwinds-priced-in><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investment ThesisNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) reported an April delivery card that reflected the significant challenges from the recent COVID lockdowns in China. As a result, we believe it could spend the next...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506509-nio-stock-april-deliveries-covid-headwinds-priced-in\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4505","symbol_name":"高瓴资本持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506509-nio-stock-april-deliveries-covid-headwinds-priced-in","article_id":"2232920016","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2232920016","pubTimestamp":1651633272,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Investment ThesisNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) reported an April delivery card that reflected the significant ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","NIO":"蔚来","BK4531":"中概回港概念"},"translate_title":"蔚来：它没有跌至3月份的低点--计入了COVID逆风","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":1,"EVS.SI":0.6},"content_text":"Investment ThesisNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) reported an April delivery card that reflected the significant challenges from the recent COVID lockdowns in China. As a result, we believe it could spend the next two quarters recovering to full production, impacting its revenue and profitability estimates.Notably, the consensus estimates for FY22 have also been revised markedly downwards, reflecting these headwinds. Therefore, we believe that its stock re-rating could be delayed further into FY23. However, our price action analysis also suggested that the near-term bottom could be in. Despite the underwhelming April report, the stock did not revisit its March lows.Furthermore, we also explained in a recent Alibaba & Chinese tech stocks article that the regulatory environment had improved markedly. Even though the COVID situation remains fluid, automotive businesses in Shanghai have started to resume operations. Therefore, we think the worst seems to be over for NIO and its Chinese EV peers.Consequently, we reiterate our Buy rating on NIO stock as a speculative opportunity only.NIO's Weak April Deliveries Are ExpectedNIO deliveries by month (Company filings)NIO delivered just 5.07K of vehicles in April 2022, down 28.6% YoY. It was also the company's worst showing since October 2021, when it delivered 3.67K of vehicles. Of course, its October performance was affected due to its production line upgrade. In April 2022, NIO was hit by industry-wide production cuts resulting from China's massive COVID lockdowns.However, we believe that the impact is transitory, not structural, despite the downbeat numbers. Furthermore, companies in the automotive supply chain have started to resume operations. Therefore, NIO is also expected to increase production gradually. However, we expect full production resumption to recover only from H2'22. Deutsche Bank (DB) also weighed in recently, as it added (edited):We expect some spillover effects in May related to suppliers slowly returning to production, while June could be the first \"normal\" month, assuming Covid conditions return to normal. NIO also continues to ramp up sales of its newly launched flagship ET7 sedan. We believe it will be one of the most popular premium cars on the market this year. - CnEVPostProduction Resumption In H2'22 Is Key For Re-RatingNIO revenue YoY change % consensus estimates (Company filings)NIO adjusted EBIT margins % consensus estimates (Company filings)As a result of the unexpected production curbs, the consensus estimates on NIO's revenue and profitability have been revised substantially downwards. Therefore, NIO's path to profitability has also been further extended.Notably, NIO is estimated to post revenue growth of 22.3% in FQ1, which was not impacted by the lockdowns, which intensified only at the end of March. However, its Q2 revenue growth estimates have been revised to 41.9%, from 47.8% (March estimates). Moreover, NIO's revenue growth cadence is also expected to be affected throughout the rest of FY22.In addition, NIO's adjusted EBIT margins are also estimated to suffer from significant markdowns. For instance, NIO is expected to post an adjusted EBIT margin of -15% in Q2 (ending June), down from the -8.6% estimates in March. Commentary from the Street also seemed downcast, as Morgan Stanley (MS) accentuated (edited):NIO's vehicle production and delivery were severely affected by supply chain disruptions amid COVID-19 lockdowns in China. Though soft April sales should have been well anticipated, investors are likely to keep a close watch on the resumption progress post-China's May holidays. - The FlyTherefore, we strongly encourage investors to watch the automotive supply chain developments closely.Is NIO Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?NIO stock price chart (TradingView)As seen above, the market is still digesting the gains from 2020, overturned by the 2021 bull trap. Furthermore, NIO stock has also fallen through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating that the momentum is bearish.However, we also observed that NIO stock did not break below its March lows, despite the underwhelming April delivery report and revised estimates. Therefore, we are sanguine that the market has already priced in significant headwinds in NIO stock.Accordingly, we think the stage has been set for management to more easily outperform moving forward. In addition, the revised estimates have lowered the bar for NIO to beat its upcoming Q1 earnings card, coupled with its Q2 guidance.However, we think its re-rating could take longer, potentially only from FY23, as the market parses its production cadence. Nevertheless, we believe the bottom seems to be near, as long as the COVID headwinds don't get worse moving forward.As such, we reiterate our Buy rating on NIO stock. However, we emphasize that it's suitable only as a speculative opportunity. 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