美股抛售潮愈演愈烈，这个数据会成为市场转折点吗？

第一财经2022-05-08

华尔街又经历了动荡的五个交易日。美联储决议并未像3月那样成为短期市场的底部，三大股指延续了4月以来的调整步伐。风险资产抛售潮的背后，是投资者对美国经济软着陆的担忧。市场开始将目光转向了即将公布的消费者物价指数（CPI），数据对通胀预期的影响可能会打压资金对于加息路径的猜测，进而为持续下跌的市场带来喘息机会。通胀预期博弈升温美联储议息会议无疑是近期最大焦点，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）决定将联邦...

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北纬1度线
2022-05-09
北纬1度线
[疑問] [疑問]
百汇
2022-05-09
百汇
[暗中觀察]
haiwei183
2022-05-09
haiwei183
look
hhyw
2022-05-09
hhyw
好
Yeong
2022-05-09
Yeong
Y
crazybee1235
2022-05-09
crazybee1235
hi

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Will this data become a turning point in the market?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/502ebf7e76af855df0243196dbe0a67c","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"华尔街又经历了动荡的五个交易日。美联储决议并未像3月那样成为短期市场的底部，三大股指延续了4月以来的调整步伐。风险资产抛售潮的背后，是投资者对美国经济软着陆的担忧。市场开始将目光转向了即将公布的消费者物价指数（CPI），数据对通胀预期的影响可能会打压资金对于加息路径的猜测，进而为持续下跌的市场带来喘息机会。通胀预期博弈升温美联储议息会议无疑是近期最大焦点，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）决定将联邦基金利率上调至0.75%-1.00%，这也是2000年以来首次加息50个基点。与此同时，缩减资产负债表计划也随之公布，美联储计划在9月将缩表规模提升至950亿美元，这是历史上最快的缩表周期之一。通过收紧货币政策，美联储希望在实现控制通胀的同时，避免经济衰退的发生。在一季度国内生产总值（GDP）意外回落后，本周公布的包括制造业、服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）、贸易逆差等数据，都在显示美国经济动能有进一步放缓的迹象。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，高涨的物价问题仍然是美联储的主要担忧，快速上涨的商品和服务价格，正在侵蚀美国家庭收入，对消费者信心形成了负面影响。考虑到供应链瓶颈和地缘政治因素，美联储想要在政策和经济之间找到平衡点，正面临巨大挑战。货币政策开始对信贷市场产生冲击。房地美上周报告称，30年期抵押贷款利率达到5.27%，比此前一周上升17个基点，为2009年以来的最高水平。从近两周公布的成屋销售、新屋开工等数据看，新一轮加息周期和即将开始的缩表周期，让买房者在不断上涨的房价面前开始望而却步。值得注意的是，美联储加息后，高涨的通胀预期并未随之明显降温。虽然美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上称，并未对75个基点加息“积极考虑”，根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）利率观察工具FedWatch的最新数据，投资者认为6月加息75基点的可能性高达83%，而美联储上一次这么做还是在1994年11月。在外界看来，未来通胀的走向将很大程度上决定美联储的加息路径。最新公布的非农就业报告显示，劳动力市场需求依然强劲，但小时薪资增速较上月有所放缓。施瓦茨认为，随着储蓄率下降和管制措施放松，美国劳动力市场供应增加将给工资增长带来下行压力，这有望印证鲍威尔对“工资-价格螺旋”的风险评估。市场已经把目光转向下周将公布的CPI，如果增速能从此前创造的40年高位回落的话，通胀预期的有效降温可能缓解美联储的政策压力。施瓦茨告诉第一财经记者，他认为75个基点的加息幅度过于激进，更倾向于美联储将在未来两次会议继续加息50个基点，以避免出现政策收紧过快冲击经济的情况。市场反弹是否临近美联储加息周期的冲击波仍在延续，芝加哥期权交易所市场波动性指数（VIX）本周一度冲击年内新高。目前道指已经连跌六周，标普500指数自2011年以来首次出现周线五连阴的情况。科技股持续表现不佳，截至6日收盘，纳指较去年11月历史高点已经回撤近25%。政策预期不断推高美债收益率，基准10年期美债上周一度触及突破3.10%，冲击了其依赖现金流的估值体系。美国投资公司爱德华琼斯(EdwardJones)的投资策略师库尔卡法斯（Angelo Kourkafas）表示：“成长股表现不佳与实际收益率的上升直接相关，而目前实际收益率已经处于正区间。其实问题不仅在于不同利率制度带来的估值压力，还在于相关需求有所提前，这是本财报季相关板块所表现出的主要趋势之一。”市场动荡也打压了投资者情绪。美国个人投资者协会（AAII）最新每周调查显示，个人投资者对未来六个月前景“看跌”的比例上升至59.4%，为2009年以来的最高水平。另一项情绪指标——市场恐惧与贪婪指数已经连续第四周处于恐慌区间。投资者继续抛售各类风险资产。金融市场数据和基础设施提供商路孚特（Refinitiv Lipper）的数据显示，截至5月4日的一周内，美国投资者抛售了价值55.2亿美元的债券基金，连续净卖出达到17周，股票基金净流出37.6亿美元，其中成长型基金卖出39.3亿美元。避险情绪推动下，本周货币市场基金录得净买入26.3亿美元。美股连续调整后，不少资金在衍生品市场上为超跌反弹摩拳擦掌。根据嘉信理财为第一财经记者提供的数据，过去一周，VIX看涨期权和看跌期权未平仓量分别环比增长1.8%和14.7%，与此同时，标普500指数看涨期权未平仓量增长2.6%，看跌期权回落1.5%，两者都显示，投资者在押注短期美股将企稳回升。不过，不少华尔街机构认为，本轮市场调整的低点尚未出现。高盛首席经济学家哈齐乌斯（Jan Hatzius）上周预计，美股将出现震荡下跌的走势。他在报告中写道：“如果我们短期不会出现衰退的预测是正确的，那么今年迄今为止看到的模式可能会继续下去：只要衰退不正式出现，股市就会不断探底反抽，同时利率曲线和大宗商品价格会随着时间的推移继续走高。”文末，让我们看看市场将有哪些重要事件及重要财报吧！下周前瞻 | 美国4月CPI即将揭晓；西方石油、理想汽车财报来袭周一，佛诞翌日，港股休市，美股正常开市。周二起，港股开始交易。经济数据方面，中国4月贸易帐、货币供应数据、美国批发销售数据将公布。周二，经济数据方面，美国4月NFIB小型企业信心指数、中国4月全社会用电量等数据将公布。事件方面，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯将发表讲话。周三，经济数据方面，中国4月CPI/PPI、美国4月CPI等重要经济数据将公布。新股方面，云康集团新股申购结束。周四，经济数据方面，美国4月PPI、美国当周初请失业金人数等数据将公布。周五，经济数据方面，美国4月进口物价指数、5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数等数据将公布。事件方面，2023年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利将就能源和通胀发表讲话。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9062626788,"gmtCreate":1652057240244,"gmtModify":1676535020823,"author":{"id":"3577005617035851","authorId":"3577005617035851","name":"北纬1度线","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4e2bd60feda0f7eb2d2f34c6b4dc130","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1eed764d9c7ff83dc093fbb9a96bc2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577005617035851","authorIdStr":"3577005617035851"},"htmlText":"[疑問]&nbsp;[疑問]&nbsp;","listText":"[疑問]&nbsp;[疑問]&nbsp;","text":"[疑問] 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