Palantir: Bears Have Been Right, But This Is Another Buying Opportunity

Seeking Alpha2022-05-11

SummaryShares of Palantir continue to sell off as many considered Q1 2022 a mixed bag after earnings were released.Palantir is well positioned with more than $2 billion in cash and $0 of debt on the ...

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Comments

Nomo77
2022-05-12
Nomo77
Thanks for sharing!
ET77
2022-05-12
ET77
Nice detailed look at PLTR. Stock based compensation is also decreasing. That's been many investors' bugbear
.kok
2022-05-12
.kok
Ok
rogerl
2022-05-11
rogerl
Great
Shirley Soh
2022-05-11
Shirley Soh
👍
Shirley Soh
2022-05-11
Shirley Soh
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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PLTR reported Q1 2022 earnings into a market that continues to sell off and a Nasdaq that's officially in a bear market. Prior to the conference call ending or investors reading/digesting the quarterly report, shares of PLTR plunged by over 15%, breaching the $8 mark. Shares have lost 73.68% from their 52-week highs and are now trading below their direct listing price from the fall of 2020. It could be a while before the pain ends, but PLTR is a long-term investment for me, and I am continuing to dollar cost average into my position. I invested in PLTR right after it went public and continued to buy shares on the way up and also on the way down.The analyst community was looking for PLTR to earn an adjusted $0.04 per share on $443.51 million, and PLTR delivered $0.02 on $446 million of revenue. The market's reaction is certainly reflected in PLTR's steep sell-off as it's nothing but a sea of red. When you go under the surface of the headlines, PLTR is firing on all cylinders as overall revenue grew 31% YoY, their customer base increased by 86% YoY as PLTR added new customers in Q1 2022, and commercial revenue grew 54% YoY. The funny thing is that the market used to be worried about commercial clients and revenue. The blemish on PLTR's track record was that its revenue mix was primarily dominated by government revenue. In Q1 2022, commercial revenue grew to $205 million, accounting for 45.96% of their quarterly revenue.Palantir's Government And Commercial Sectors Continue To Grow During This Volatile EnvironmentPLTR has demonstrated a 30% CAGR over the past 8 years in its U.S government revenue growth. Over the previous 3 years, PLTR has grown its Q1 revenue from the government side by $112 million (48.91%) in 2021 and another $105 million (30.79%) in 2022. Over the past two years, PLTR's Q1 government revenue has more than doubled as it has grown by $123 million or 104.24%.Steven Fiorillo, PalantirOn the commercial side, PLTR has certainly answered everyone's questions about growing its customer base and revenue, regardless of whether the government side still represents more than 50% of quarterly revenue. Over the previous 2 years, PLTR's commercial business has grown by $94 million (84.69%) in Q1 from $111 million to $205 million in revenue. In 2021, PLTR grew its Q1 revenue by $22 million (19.82%) YoY but in Q1 of 2022 saw its commercial business ramp up by $72 billion (54.14%) YoY. The critical aspect to keep in mind is that PLTR wasn't widely known outside of the government sector, and even fewer companies knew that their product offerings were applicable to commercial entities. Q1 of 2022 represents validation that businesses on the commercial side are implementing PLTR's products as their commercial customer count grew YoY by 207% to 184 clients from 60 clients.Steven Fiorillo, PalantirIt looks like PLTR will be reporting its total customer count as a combined figure which includes both the government and commercial segments. These numbers are critical to PLTR's future growth and indicate a bright future. Over the previous year, PLTR has added 128 new customers, growing its client base by 86% YoY. Going back an additional quarter, PLTR has added 138 clients, increasing its customers by 99.28% over the previous 5 quarters. While these figures are important, the critical aspect is that PLTR has consistently added more customers QoQ in this period. In Q1 2021, PLTR added 10 customers, then 20 in Q2 2021, 34 in both Q3 and Q4 of 2021, and 40 new customers in this recent quarter.More customers correlate to more revenue, and PLTR is thriving in a market full of uncertainty. PLTR's average revenue per top 20 customers increased by 24% YoY to $45 million from $36 million on the commercial side. In Q1 2022, PLTR closed 208 deals compared to 81 in Q1 of 2021, which is an increase of 157%, while their billings jumped by 35% to $490 million from $362 million. Last year, PLTR had $2.8 billion in remaining deal value, which has increased by 26% to $3.5 billion in Q1 2022, while remaining performance obligations increased 86% YoY to $1.2 billion.PalantirThe Investment Community Should Take A Closer Look At Q1 2022's Financials As There Is A Clear Path To Operational ProfitabilityThe current market dynamics are unfavorable toward growth companies that are not GAAP profitable, creating a sea of red in many portfolios. Just because a company doesn't show a profit doesn't mean their headed toward bankruptcy, and analyzing the financials becomes increasingly important to determine if there is a path to profitability or if you're invested in a losing hand.PLTR's income statement continues to strengthen and tells an interesting story. In Q1 YoY PLTR added $105.12 million of revenue while their cost of revenue only increased by $20.3 million. Gross profit in Q1 2022 increased by $84.83 million, and PLTR's gross profit margin slightly increased by just over ½ of a percentage point. From a cost of revenue perspective, PLTR isn't foolishly spending capital on growing its top line and has slightly increased its gross profit margin, which indicates a strong demand for its services. PLTR's operating expenses increased by $10.26 million (2.7%) YoY, while they experienced $105.12 million in revenue growth. Operationally PLTR has found its sweet spot as R&D, and general and administrative expenses declined YoY, allowing PLTR to allocate more capital to its sales and marketing segments. Overall, YoY PLTR's loss from operations declined by -$74.58 million (-65.41%) as they finished Q1 2022, losing -$39.44 million.Based on the current figures, if PLTR grows its revenue YoY in Q1 of 2023 by 30% to $580.26 million and its cost of revenue increases at the same rate, it would come in at $120.25 million for a gross profit of $460 million. If total operating expenses also increased at the same rate YoY, it would come in at $401.93 million. This would generate operational profitability in Q1 2023 to the tune of $40.19 million. There is certainly a path to operational profitability over the next year and a road to profitability on a GAAP basis in the back half of 2023.PalantirNot all growth companies are built the same, and PLTR has a fortress of a balance sheet. PLTR has $2.27 billion of cash on hand. This allows PLTR to grow without tapping the debt markets, and based on their -$101.38 million net loss in Q1, their cash stockpile could absorb these losses for more than 5 years. PLTR's net loss has also been declining and could turn to a net profit sometime in 2023. Based on PLTR's rate of growth, margins, and cash on hand, they are on the correct course. PLTR doesn't need to focus solely on generating net positive earnings and can continue to build the best products, grow its customer base, and grow its top line while maintaining consistent margins. PLTR is already profitable on an adjusted and normalized FCF methodology and should become profitable on a GAAP net income basis well before its cash stockpile is jeopardized.When you look at PLTR's liabilities, there is a significant line item that is non-existent. PLTR is debt-free, and its total liabilities are just under $1 billion. 100% of PLTR's current FCF and future net income can be allocated freely without having to budget for interest payments or the repayment of debt. I can't stress how important this is to me, as PLTR is building its company without a major liability that has crippled many other companies in the past.PalantirWhy I believe Palantir's Future Looks Bright Even Though The Chart Is Downright FrighteningYes, PLTR's share price can continue to fall, but the likelihood of going to $0 in the short term is not worth discussing. As I outlined in the previous section, PLTR has $0 in debt and enough cash on hand to sustain operations at their current rate for more than 5 years. The bears have been correct the entire way down, and even though my conviction hasn't changed, I have been wrong. Maybe shares go to $5, I don't have a crystal ball, but what I can say is I am treating this as an opportunity. At this point, you either believe PLTR has a bright future ahead of them, or they are in serious financial distress. Reading through PLTR's financials, they are not in financial distress, and based on their growth, we could see GAAP profitability next year. My investment time horizon has always been out to 2030 as I believe PLTR will become the most important software company behind Microsoft (MSFT). I can withstand the short-term pain because I am more concerned with what PLTR's share price is in 2025 and 2027, not in 2022.Seeking AlphaI don't believe the market realizes or understands the potential of Foundry. PLTR partners with their clients to build industry-specific platforms that can be sold to their clients and partners, replicating what PLTR did with Airbus through Skywise. Shyam Sankar touched on this during the conference call when he outlined that Airbus had rolled out an internally developed supply chain network control tower which was a suite built on top of Foundry's application development infrastructure. What he didn't mention is that PLTR has been replicating this within different industries.PLTR partnered with Jacobs Engineering Group (J) to leverage its existing O&M portfolio and proprietary machine learning modules and wastewater process optimization tools to develop a dynamic management solution suite on PLTR's Foundry system. J and PLTR are planning other joint technical and programmatic initiatives to serve U.S. federal government customers. J is the ideal partner for PLTR as they provide consulting, technical, scientific, and project delivery services for the government and private sectors in the United States, Europe, Canada, India, rest of Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Mexico, the Middle East, and Africa. PLTR also partnered with Hyundai Heavy Industries to form a data joint venture. This will allow the two entities to build a new big data platform for Hyundai Heavy Industries. Hyundai Heavy Industries is a $5 billion South Korean company that has grown into the world's leading heavy industries organization which has diversified from shipbuilding to offshore & engineering, Naval & Special Ships, and engine & machinery. Hyundai Heavy is a global entity with partnerships throughout the globe. Based on the agreement, Hyundai Heavy Industries and PLTR will jointly build a big data platform for the Group's key affiliates related to shipbuilding & offshore engineering, energy, and industrial machinery.We learned that PLTR closed a renewal deal with a Fortune 100 company for over $150 million in April. We also learned that PLTR's hospital operations Suite as a module is now covering over 37,000 beds throughout U.S hospitals which is up from 1,000 beds on 1/1/22. On the government side, PLTR has expanded its partnership with the CDC, and was awarded a framework agreement in Germany for Gotham and Foundry with an initial order placed from the Bavarian Police. The U.K Royal Navy closed a $10 million expansion with PLTR to cover strategic workforce planning and supply chain management.PLTR has launched 8 new products since going public, which include Edge AI, HyperAuto, Cosmos, Apollo for customers SaaS, MetaConstellation, Pipeline builder, OPIs, and Titan. The most important aspect is PLTR is building software to solve the world's most critical problems, and in doing so, their total addressable market is expanding. PLTR continues to deepen its government relationships while building its commercial business because of the success its solutions create.PalantirThe proof is in the numbers. On the government side, PLTR has a long-term trend from 2013-to 2021 of driving growth at a 30% rate from the U.S government. PLTR's total customers wouldn't have grown by 86% YoY to 277 if their products weren't impactful to government entities and individual organizations. The big contention in Q4 2021 was that the government customer count didn't increase throughout the year. In Q1 2022, PLTR's government customer count grew by 3 clients to 93 total government customers. We're seeing more deals closed, elevated levels of billings, and larger average revenue from PLTR's top customers. These critical aspects tell a promising story for PLTR's future.ConclusionThe herd mentality is perplexing; everyone wants to buy on the way up because they are afraid of missing out, but on the way down, many just classify PLTR as a bad stock. If you're not doing your own due diligence or understanding why you're making an investment in a company, maybe index funds are a better investment for you. Investing is a two-way street and allocating capital to individual equities comes with additional risks.PLTR has always been a long-term buy-and-hold for me. Since PLTR went public, I bought my initial shares for under $10, I have purchased shares on the way up and on the way down. I added shares this morning and will be adding shares in the future. I am not worried about the share price in 2022 or 2023; while I would rather see this position in the black when I look at my account, I look at the current price weakness as an opportunity. Every metric I care about points to future growth while their losses narrow. PLTR has over $2 billion in cash on hand and can sustain its current quarterly losses for more than 5 years. This is a company with $0 in debt, and it's trading as if bankruptcy is in its future. I couldn't tell you when the markets will turn, but PLTR won't be one of the companies left in the cold. I believe these prices will look like a missed opportunity for many several years into the future. While PLTR may not get back to $20 in 2022, I have no doubt that this is a multi-bagger investment from its current level, and eventually, the market sentiment on PLTR will change.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9064603285,"gmtCreate":1652314544047,"gmtModify":1676535075029,"author":{"id":"4101449357353590","authorId":"4101449357353590","name":"Nomo77","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4101449357353590","idStr":"4101449357353590"},"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing!","listText":"Thanks for sharing!","text":"Thanks for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064603285","repostId":2234695278,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064879689,"gmtCreate":1652313981441,"gmtModify":1676535074808,"author":{"id":"3565944798085236","authorId":"3565944798085236","name":"ET77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c73ac2c436c2e43d9b78a2c52d24cb7","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3565944798085236","idStr":"3565944798085236"},"htmlText":"Nice detailed look at PLTR. Stock based compensation is also decreasing. That's been many investors' bugbear&nbsp;","listText":"Nice detailed look at PLTR. Stock based compensation is also decreasing. That's been many investors' bugbear&nbsp;","text":"Nice detailed look at PLTR. Stock based compensation is also decreasing. That's been many investors' bugbear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064879689","repostId":2234695278,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064851629,"gmtCreate":1652313247361,"gmtModify":1676535074170,"author":{"id":"4107144801877780","authorId":"4107144801877780","name":".kok","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/64b20d19e00735785dea272966e7773b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4107144801877780","idStr":"4107144801877780"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064851629","repostId":2234695278,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064931161,"gmtCreate":1652263379853,"gmtModify":1676535064124,"author":{"id":"3572005079747641","authorId":"3572005079747641","name":"rogerl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70a75678cb06207361b08aa8e42a9ecd","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572005079747641","idStr":"3572005079747641"},"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064931161","repostId":2234695278,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064995821,"gmtCreate":1652262339363,"gmtModify":1676535063986,"author":{"id":"4100664503126340","authorId":"4100664503126340","name":"Shirley Soh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/784ec5f33096066f43c22d219e548bac","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4100664503126340","idStr":"4100664503126340"},"htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064995821","repostId":2234695278,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064995177,"gmtCreate":1652262329499,"gmtModify":1676535063978,"author":{"id":"4100664503126340","authorId":"4100664503126340","name":"Shirley Soh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/784ec5f33096066f43c22d219e548bac","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4100664503126340","idStr":"4100664503126340"},"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064995177","repostId":2234695278,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":116,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2234695278"}