Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?

seekingalpha2022-05-15

The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been...

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Comments

wine18
2022-05-16
wine18
Ok
MamaLee
2022-05-16
MamaLee
Ok
JFK
2022-05-16
JFK
Like
CL777
2022-05-16
CL777
Not likely
Dragonbody
2022-05-16
Dragonbody
[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
wawazz
2022-05-16
wawazz
Ok

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Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4139","symbol_name":"生物科技","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession","article_id":"2235487417","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235487417","pubTimestamp":1652578909,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. 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Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is CorrectWe’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.Bottom Line: Charting The Course From HereGiven the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. 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