美股牛市终结or延续？华尔街出现分歧

智通财经2022-05-16

美国银行技术策略师Stephen Suttmeier认为，始于2013年的美股牛市正进入第10个年头，这种上升趋势可能持续到2027年。这一乐观看法与悲观的华尔街同行形成鲜明对比。Suttmeier表示，始于1980年的牛市持续到2000年(20年)，始于1950年的牛市持续到1966年(16年)，在过去牛市的基础上，本轮始于2013年的牛市有望持续。Suttmeier表示，1950-1966年的...

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CalvinChong
2022-05-16
CalvinChong
nice

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Divisions on Wall Street","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c2c83a4aaab4f64746c7f21c4c8d8db","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"BAC":0.87,"GS":0.85,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"美国银行技术策略师Stephen Suttmeier认为，始于2013年的美股牛市正进入第10个年头，这种上升趋势可能持续到2027年。这一乐观看法与悲观的华尔街同行形成鲜明对比。Suttmeier表示，始于1980年的牛市持续到2000年(20年)，始于1950年的牛市持续到1966年(16年)，在过去牛市的基础上，本轮始于2013年的牛市有望持续。Suttmeier表示，1950-1966年的长期牛市始于低利率，就像现在一样，直到10年期利率触及5%才结束。Suttmeier表示，美国10年期国债收益率的长期周期比标普500指数的长期周期长得多。在1920-1945年的债券牛市(收益率下降)期间，股市经历了牛市及之后的熊市。在1945-1981年的债券熊市(收益率上升)期间，股市也经历了牛市和熊市。在1981-2020年的债券牛市期间，股市经历了牛市、熊市和另一个牛市的头七年。Suttmeier表示，2020年的回调标志着当前牛市到达“一半时间”，并表明这种上升趋势可以持续到2027年(本世纪20年代末)。今年，标普500的阻力位在5000点，支撑位在4800点。但周期性熊市对长期牛市构成压力。上周五，标普500成功守住3800点的下行测试水平。200周移动均线3475点也是一个重大测试点位。与乐观的Suttmeier不同，摩根士丹利策略师Mike Wilson认为，熊市反弹已开启，美股下跌还未结束。Wilson预计标普500指数年底将收于3400点。此外，高盛表示，经济衰退将推动标普500指数达到3600点。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9020716969,"gmtCreate":1652685446351,"gmtModify":1676535141201,"author":{"id":"3573814781456643","authorId":"3573814781456643","name":"CalvinChong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573814781456643","authorIdStr":"3573814781456643"},"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020716969","repostId":2235542298,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2235542298"}