The S&P 500 Narrowly Averts a Bear Market. How Long Do They Last Once They Arrive?

MarketWatch2022-05-21

Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesThe S&P 500 averted a bear market Friday, trimming losses to finish flat after trading solidly below a key ...

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tig2021
2022-05-23
tig2021
Ok
KH321
2022-05-23
KH321
OK
robot1234
2022-05-23
robot1234
The global business elite will gather in the mountains of Davos, Switzerland this week amid a backdrop of turbulent markets and an uncertain economic outlook. For the first time in over two years, CEOs, politicians, and billionaires are set to congregate at the World Economic Forum following a pandemic-induced hiatus. Russia’s war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and worries of economic gloom will be among the key topics discussed, as the world's top leaders face the most uncertain outlook for global cooperation in years. A top-of-mind issue for many Davos attendees will no doubt be recent turbulence in financial markets, as the S&P 500 just completed its seventh consecutive week of losses, the longest streak since 2001. The benchmark index has fallen seven weeks in a row only twice
DarkRaven
2022-05-23
DarkRaven
Ok
Sunshine_2
2022-05-22
Sunshine_2
OK
AuntieAaA
2022-05-22
AuntieAaA
OKAY

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How Long Do They Last Once They Arrive?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-21 06:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesThe S&P 500 averted a bear market Friday, trimming losses to finish flat after trading solidly below a key ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page","article_id":"2237026172","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237026172","pubTimestamp":1653085302,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesThe S&P 500 averted a bear market Friday, trimming losses to finish flat after trading solidly below a key threshol","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"标普500勉强避免了熊市。它们到达后能持续多久？","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesThe S&P 500 averted a bear market Friday, trimming losses to finish flat after trading solidly below a key threshold. But history shows that when a bear arrives, it tends to stick around awhile.The large-cap U.S. benchmark  ended the session with a gain of less than a point at 3,901.36 after trading as low as 3,810.32. A close below 3,837.25 would mark a 20% pullback from the S&P 500's Jan. 3 record finish, meeting the traditional definition of a bear market, according to Dow Jones Market Data.The Dow Jones Industrial Average  erased a 617 point loss to end the day at 31,261.90. A finish below 29,439.72 would put the blue-chip gauge into a bear market.To be sure, many investors and analysts see that 20% definition as an overly formal if not outdated metric, arguing that stocks have been behaving in bear-like fashion for weeks.And note, that if the S&P 500 were to close below the threshold in the coming days, the start of the bear market would be backdated to the Jan. 3 peak. A bear market is declared over once the S&P 500 has risen 20% from a low.OK, so what does history say about what happens once a bear market begins?There have been 17 bear --- or near-bear--- markets since World War II, said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, in a Wednesday note. Generally speaking, the S&P 500 has fallen further once a bear market begins. And, he said, bear markets have, on average, lasted about a year, producing an average peak-to-trough decline of just shy of 30%. (see table below).LPL ResearchThe steepest fall, a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 57%, occurred in the 17 months that marked the 17-month bear market that accompanied the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The longest was a 48.2% drop that ran for nearly 21 months in 1973-74. The shortest was the nearly 34% drop that took place over just 23 trading sessions as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a global rout that bottomed out on March 23, 2020, and marked the start of the current bull market.The S&P 500 neared bear territory last week before a strong Friday-the-13th bounce that halved its weekly losses. Another strong bounce was seen May 17, but gains were more than erased in the following session after downbeat results from retailing giant Target Corp. underlined fears that inflation pressures were beginning to take a toll on margins.The earnings from Target and, a day earlier, Walmart Inc. \"have me concerned that bad things may be starting to happen in the U.S. economy,\" said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.\"Namely, that the length of high inflation has infiltrated the lower income cohorts of the economy, and they are now reacting, quickly. And as inflation stays high and the economy slows, that will creep 'up' the income distribution, and the concern is the margin issues TGT and WMT are facing will spread to other parts of the retail space and the market more broadly,\" Essaye wrote.Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, worries that Wall Street analysts have yet to catch up to the danger. While earnings expectations for companies in emerging markets and the broader developed-markets indexes have turned down, that isn't the case for the S&P 500, he noted, in a Thursday interview.. 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