When Will The S&P 500 Recover? History Offers Some Clues

seekingalpha2022-05-24

SummaryThe S&P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring late-day recovery going into monthly options expiration.As of writing this, stocks are down about 18%...

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Comments

Ragz
2022-05-25
Ragz
Interesting article, but needs hindsight to calculate the upswing period
Jess261
2022-05-25
Jess261
Okay
linereps
2022-05-25
linereps
Nice
leemoney
2022-05-25
leemoney
Down
wayjay1159
2022-05-24
wayjay1159
Very insightful
Ironman2002
2022-05-24
Ironman2002
Thank you for the good sharing 😀

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History Offers Some Clues\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-24 20:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513853-s-and-p-500-recovery-history><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring late-day recovery going into monthly options expiration.As of writing this, stocks are down about 18%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513853-s-and-p-500-recovery-history\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513853-s-and-p-500-recovery-history","article_id":"2237359956","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237359956","pubTimestamp":1653394228,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring l","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"标普500何时恢复？历史提供了一些线索","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring late-day recovery going into monthly options expiration.As of writing this, stocks are down about 18% for the year.Questions that are top of mind for many investors are how deep the decline will go and when stocks are likely to recover their all-time highs.To help answer these questions, I built a simple model that can handicap market recovery times based on past data.Some analysis on a few different ways this selloff could play out, and on intelligent risk taking in general.Mlenny/E+ via Getty ImagesAre you curious when your 401(K) balance is likely to recover from the current market selloff? You're not alone. After a powerful three-year bull market, the tide has decisively turned against stocks – and the high-flying technology sector in particular. As of my writing this, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down roughly 18% for the year, erasing trillions in market value for investors. But history has shown that diversified investors who have stayed the course have always come out well in the end – if they were able to hold on through some nasty bear markets. For the brave, there are always trading opportunities to take advantage of highs and lows as well.When Will Stocks Recover?Stocks don't only go up. I pulled some data for the S&P 500, and it shows that since the end of World War II, there have been 84 pullbacks of 5% or more, 29 corrections of 10% or more, and nine bear markets of 20% or more, three of which saw declines of 40% or more.This works out to a pullback occurring on average every 0.9 years, a correction every 2.7 years, a bear market every 8.6 years or so, and a major bear market occurring every 25.7 years (this data is from Guggenheim Investments, and as of March of this year. Also note that the data is based on closing prices).Stock Market Decline Frequency and Recovery Time (Guggenheim Investments)By this measure, US stocks have been a pretty solid wealth creation tool. I will note, however, that two of the major bear markets have come since the turn of the century, making comparisons to the post-war era a little dicier than they would be if you're looking to retire on your money. Also, the post-war era was fairly prosperous – including the Great Depression in your dataset makes bear markets and corrections much more frequent.If you're looking at your portfolio now and wondering when it will go back to where it was in January, then I have a model based on historical data that will help you make an educated guess. I tested out a few different approaches. First I made a linear regression with this data, but it didn't fit very well with past declines. I tried an exponential regression, but it gave some crazy answers as well. The best fit I found was to make a weighted regression. The idea is that pullbacks are frequent, while bear markets are relatively rare, so I weight the model by frequency.Here's what I got.Drawdown Recovery Regression (Linear, Weighted)x=drawdown%y=months to recoveryy= 1.13x -6.13How to use this model: Simply plug in the size of the decline into X (but drop the percentage). Then, subtract the time elapsed since the previous peak.So, for a 20% bear market decline, the model predicts that it will take ((1.13 *20) -6.13)= 16.5 months from the previous peak to recover. The decline has been going on for ~4.5 months, so the model predicts that stocks will be back at all-time highs in about 12 months if the future looks like the past (note that I'm rounding).This isn't really scientifically sound since I'm introducing hindsight bias into the model by comparing an ongoing drawdown to past completed ones, but as a tool to make an educated guess about the future, it's not bad at all.Deeper declines mean longer recoveries. If the decline goes 40%, the model predicts that stocks won't retake their all-time highs for about 35 months.Where's The Market Headed Next?No two market declines are identical, and to understand what might happen next, you have to fundamentally analyze what's going on in the world.The above Guggenheim piece, as well as research I've read from Bridgewater, separates corrections and bear markets into two different categories. Typically corrections are caused by changes in valuation multiples (the PE ratio) of the market, while bear markets are driven by declines in earnings (recessions).Earnings Vs. Multiples (Bridgewater)The key for investors here - earnings. The stock market has felt like it's gone to hell in a handbag this year, but earnings estimates for 2022 and 2023 have barely budged. There are four economic quadrants here that will determine the direction of the stock market.1. Above-Trend Growth, Above-Trend InflationEarnings estimates hold up into 2022 and 2023, and the market falling is simply because the Fed fighting inflation has caused multiples to fall. In this scenario, a strong labor market and pent-up savings keep the economy humming along, giving the Fed plenty of latitude to hike rates and bring inflation down. This would mean the current price is about right for stocks. This economy would be above-trend growth and above-trend inflation. Another word for this would be a \"soft landing.\"2. Below-Trend Growth, Below-Trend InflationEarnings estimates don't hold up in this scenario, but inflation falls due to recession. In this scenario, prices stop their rapid increases or even fall a little, but earnings estimates are way too high and stocks need to fall another 10% or a bit more. This would be below-trend growth and below-trend inflation. This would be a \"hard landing.\"3. Above-Trend Growth, Below Trend-InflationThe best-case scenario is that earnings hold up and inflation falls. This scenario isn't impossible, but would likely need the Russia-Ukraine war to resolve, China to drop zero-COVID, and some solid gains in both labor force participation and tech-driven worker productivity in the US and EU. This would be above-trend growth and below-trend inflation. I don't think this scenario is super realistic, and the market doesn't think this is likely, but it's worth discussing, as it would lead stocks to retake their all-time highs. This isn't super common, but this was the driver of the huge gains in the 1990s.4. Below-Trend Growth, Above Trend InflationThe worst-case realistic scenario is stagflation, where earnings drop and inflation stays stubbornly high. This would be below-trend growth and above-trend inflation. In this scenario, the Fed has a terrible choice between stoking inflation and causing unemployment and ends up with a lot of both. In a full-blown stagflation scenario, stocks likely fall about 40% off their high due to lower earnings and a lower multiple paid on those earnings. This happened last in the 1970s.Where Do Stocks Go Next?Data by YChartsI think a lot of investors feel that something is rotten in the State of Denmark with this market. Stocks are much higher than they were pre-pandemic, but are earnings sustainable?Earnings estimates are higher than 2021, but the economy lacks the massive stimulus that created these conditions in the first place. Without stimulus, I believe earnings should be lower than they were in 2021, and the market seems to be starting to agree. A more interesting question in my mind revolves around inflation. The rate of price increases is grabbing headlines, but the market for inflation-protected TIPS (TIP) is remarkably calm about this, pricing an inflation breakeven of only 2.55% for the next 10 years. If you think this is too low, you can buy TIPS and commodities and you'll make money. Inflation doesn't seem to be slowing too fast, as gas prices certainly are continuing to rise.Comparing prices for the bond and stock markets implies we may be in for somewhat of a hard landing, but this happening will solve the inflation problem. I don't know, but it's interesting to see indicators like these contradict each other.This week will likely give more clues on earnings growth, with earnings from the likes of Costco (COST), Best Buy (BBY), and Nordstrom (JWN). The Fed also is due to release minutes on Wednesday, giving a picture on inflation.Risk Management Is A Key Life SkillRisk-taking isn't really something that's taught in school, yet affluent households are expected to have six to seven figures invested in the financial markets, where their retirement fortunes often fluctuate by tens of thousands of dollars every day.Risk management challenges are everywhere.For today's 18-year-olds, the system is set up so you can borrow $100,000 or more to go to college, where you're expected to make long-term bets on what major to pick and what career they should go into. Borrowing money is a lot easier than making correspondingly accurate analyses on economics, demographics, and future business trends, and this is one reason why we have a student debt issue in America. After graduation, the risk management challenges only increase. If you played ball in college and weren't drafted, do you try to go pro? Do you start a business, and if so should you borrow money to do so? Are you marrying the right person at 24-years-old? Should you bid $50,000 over asking and waive inspections for a three-bedroom house in the suburbs? And the stock market is the cherry on top, providing real-time feedback to your decision making to the tune of thousands of dollars made or lost for affluent households, every waking hour of your day.You might be reading this in Manhattan, but I live in Texas. Texas is a place known for colorful risk-taking, whether it's in the oil business, in real estate, or at the poker table. Some strike it rich – while others fail in spectacular fashion. Here a lot of restaurants are closed on Sundays and there aren't the same career opportunities there are on the East Coast or in the Bay Area, but Texas is a continual education on risk-taking. And if we're being honest, given enough time, I believe smart risk-taking + moderate earnings will trump high W-2 earnings + bad risk-taking every time. This weekend's PGA Championship was an absolute master class in risk management, with Justin Thomas making 2 birdies in a 3-hole playoff to beat Will Zalatoris for a seven-figure difference in prize money.Here in Texas, the majority of local multimillionaires I've come to know have a deep distrust of the stock market. They prefer to invest in land, businesses, and commercial real estate. But with a solid understanding of how markets work and how to manage risk, I believe the stock market offers the best way to grow your money over time that has ever been invented. Many of the friends I went to school with now have mortgages and spouses, while I've racked up airline miles. While I don't see as many of these old friends as often, I hope their risk management skills are up to par – that they can take enough risk to succeed and live the American Dream while not taking so much to wipe out.Bottom LineStocks have fallen sharply from their highs, and it's not clear when they will bottom, although we can make some educated guesses based on past history and the current state of the economy. For those able to manage risk well, the ongoing declines in stocks represent a likely opportunity to buy assets at attractive prices over the coming months, especially if stocks fall sharply from here. History shows that stocks are a good investment for the long run, but the current decline has the potential to amplify the threats and opportunities created by the current economic environment.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9022067536,"gmtCreate":1653444161925,"gmtModify":1676535283768,"author":{"id":"4114498221568562","authorId":"4114498221568562","name":"Ragz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b4ff9d535326b2e5c1e196c2eaee90d6","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Interesting article, but needs hindsight to calculate the upswing period","listText":"Interesting article, but needs hindsight to calculate the upswing period","text":"Interesting article, but needs hindsight to calculate the upswing period","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022067536","repostId":2237359956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9022083665,"gmtCreate":1653442367857,"gmtModify":1676535283205,"author":{"id":"3586490638953193","authorId":"3586490638953193","name":"Jess261","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022083665","repostId":2237359956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9026462260,"gmtCreate":1653430888351,"gmtModify":1676535277985,"author":{"id":"3571046202315678","authorId":"3571046202315678","name":"linereps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d348014f82002028e364ade841b3433","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026462260","repostId":2237359956,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9026414317,"gmtCreate":1653428175939,"gmtModify":1676535277594,"author":{"id":"3573369274290933","authorId":"3573369274290933","name":"leemoney","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6a1151f25a904ba29b93dd84a40bb5a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Down","listText":"Down","text":"Down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026414317","repostId":2237359956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9026552701,"gmtCreate":1653404625903,"gmtModify":1676535275864,"author":{"id":"3572263643085453","authorId":"3572263643085453","name":"wayjay1159","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90243eb7b291745521549277f548f887","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Very insightful","listText":"Very insightful","text":"Very insightful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026552701","repostId":2237359956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9026521427,"gmtCreate":1653403121769,"gmtModify":1676535275541,"author":{"id":"4094301913132990","authorId":"4094301913132990","name":"Ironman2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/784449fc945cf9d5c7b81316e20a221c","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Thank you for the good sharing 😀","listText":"Thank you for the good sharing 😀","text":"Thank you for the good sharing 😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026521427","repostId":2237359956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":132,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":9,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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