Meta: Mr. Market Is Drunk

seekingalpha2022-05-26

SummaryUnder reasonable assumptions, Meta's fair value is $313.40, so it is definitely a strong buy.Although future growth will not match the pace of the past 3 years, I believe that it will still be ...

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Comments

Berlim
2022-05-27
Berlim
[Surprised]
kktan
2022-05-27
kktan
At this stage, i would presume meta target of usd300 is reasonable but unachievable, stock market is an emotional place, not a rational one. As the fear builds up, I would rather wait for 100usd to come
Tanyl
2022-05-27
Tanyl
Must invest FB, a strong co
YekGuo98
2022-05-27
YekGuo98
Ok
Gackky
2022-05-27
Gackky
said the tipsy Meta
Melvin888
2022-05-27
Melvin888
Buy

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Meta is sacrificing its profits in the short run to gain significant benefits in the long run.Nearly two billion people use Meta apps on a daily basis, and it is likely that this growing trend may continue driven by the development of geographical areas such as Asia-Pacific and Rest of World.Fritz Jorgensen/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment thesisMeta (NASDAQ:FB) is currently surrounded by strong negative sentiment that has led it to lose more than 50% of its value. I view this slump as a rare opportunity to buy at a discount one of the best companies in the world, with annual free cash flow of nearly $40 billion and negative net debt. The current price is justified only if we assume that Meta will grow at a 0% rate over the next 10 years, which is rather unlikely. Under reasonable assumptions, Meta's fair value is $313.40, so it is definitely a strong buy.Future growth prospects and business modelMeta currently has a P/E of 14x; therefore, future growth prospects are not expected to be all that exciting. The reason for its collapse of more than 50 % is mainly due to investors' concern that this company will not grow as fast as it has in the past, and indeed, may even see a permanent reduction in profitability margins because of investments in the Metaverse. Within this article I want to express my opinion regarding the negative sentiment that is plaguing this company, and why I believe the market is making a big mistake in pricing it $177 per share. In this paragraph, Meta's two main segments will be analyzed individually: family of apps and reality labs.Family of AppsThis is Meta's main segment and includes Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp, and other services. I personally consider this segment one of the best in the world as it is virtually impossible for an outside company to succeed in this market. The main barrier to entry is due to the purpose of social media: to connect as many people as possible. It would not make sense to abandon Facebook, Instagram or WhatsApp for another social since almost every person in the world is signed up. Signing up for an emerging social would mean accepting that you cannot connect with all your contacts. Moreover, what would the potential new social have that Facebook or Instagram do not? Even assuming the potential new social had innovative new features, in a short time those features would be incorporated into all Meta socials. An example of this was the inclusion of Instagram stories after the success initially experienced by Snapchat.Comparison with TikTok and focus on user growthTo date, the only real competitor is TikTok. Its growth is undeniable and to date it has MAUs of 1 billion. But how much has TikTok affected Meta's user growth?Monthly active people (Meta Q1 2022)Looking at the data published in Q1 2022, it does not appear that the growth of the Family of Apps segment has stopped, on the contrary. Active users are growing steadily every quarter and to date have reached the incredible figure of 3.64 billion. There are about eight billion people in the world, so almost one out of two people is part of this segment; therefore, it is logical to expect slow growth. For DAUs the result is similar.Daily active users (Meta Q1 2022)Again, the growth is slow but steady. To date, nearly two billion people use Meta apps on a daily basis, and it is likely that this growing trend may continue driven by the development of geographical areas such as Asia-Pacific and Rest of World. Thus, the rise of TikTok has not led to a reduction in people's interest in Meta apps. But how is this possible? The answer lies in the three charts below published by Datareportal.Internet users from 2012 to date (Datareportal)In this first graph we can see that internet users are still growing year after year. As of today, there are about 4.95 billion internet users, but there is still room for improvement considering the approximately eight billion people in the world. If internet-connected users increase, it is likely that both Meta and TikTok sign-ups will also increase.Social media users from 2012 to date (Datareportal)In this second graph we can see how users subscribed to social media are increasing steadily and also rather quickly. The growth over the past two years is in double digits, which explains how it is possible that TikTok sign-ups have not negatively affected Meta's apps: there are simply more and more people willing to sign up for more social media. Moreover, the average daily consumption spent on social media is also continuously increasing, and to date has reached 2 hours and 27 minutes. As a final topic related to the comparison with TikTok, I want to present one last image related to the preferences of the average user.Favorite social media platforms (Datareportal)As can be seen, the top three is firmly formed by Zuckerberg's apps. Finally, I would like to emphasize that the purpose of the comparison with TikTok is not to discredit this platform in favor of Meta, but to demonstrate that TikTok along with Meta's apps can coexist together without necessarily harming each other. The growth of Meta is not harmed by the growth of TikTok, and vice versa. Obviously since Meta has more users, it is difficult for the latter to grow as fast as TikTok, but this does not mean that the Family of Apps segment is now finished.Family of Apps revenuesWe have just seen how active users are continuously growing, but what can be said about Meta from a revenue standpoint?Revenue and net income (TIKR Terminal)From 2015 to 2021, revenues grew at a CAGR of 36.8% while net income at a CAGR of 34.9%. From 2018 to 2021, the revenue CAGR decreased to 28.3% while earnings achieved a CAGR of 21.2%. Although future growth will not match the pace of the past 3 years, I believe that it will still be high enough to not justify a P/E of only 14x. If revenue growth were to decline to an annual 15%, the company would still have a PEG ratio of less than 1.To conclude the analysis of the Family of apps sector, I would like to analyze one last aspect: how much the company earns per active user.ARPU (Meta Q1 2022)Again, the results for Q1 2022 are very positive: except for Europe, every geographic area was more successful than in Q1 2021. In particular, the Asia-Pacific area and the rest of the world area drove up the average calculated on a worldwide basis, reaching $9.54 per user. The comparison, of course, should be made to the previous year's Q1 and not to the previous quarter: Q1 has always been the least profitable historically compared to the others, especially Q4.Reality LabsThis segment is definitely the more discussed of the two and has been one of the causes of Meta's collapse in recent months. The purpose of this segment can be summarized through this sentence taken from Meta's website, \"Reality Labs brings together a world-class team of researchers, developers, and engineers to build the future of connection within virtual and augmented reality.\" The premise sounds good but why then does this segment not appeal to investors? The main reason is because to date Reality Labs is an unprofitable and very expensive business.Reality Labs (Meta annual report 2021)In two years slightly more than $20 billion has been spent to achieve revenues of about $3.4 billion. To date, it does not appear that this segment has been a bargain, which is why investors are concerned about future losses that could be even greater. The concern of these investors is legitimate, but I personally do not agree with it for two reasons: the potential of this sector and Meta's financial strength.The potential of this sectorI begin this paragraph by making a premise: to date the virtual reality market is still in its early stages, and it is impossible to draw an accurate estimate of its future potential. Analysts could be very wrong, both negatively and positively. It could potentially be a market that will change our lives as early as the next 4-5 years, but the reverse could also be true. What is certainly true is that Meta will invest billions of dollars in this market, and its goal is to change our lives just as it has already done through social media. The CAGR of this market is expected to be 44.8% between 2021 and 2028 reaching a value of $84.09 billion. This growth considers every type of service/product associated with virtual reality, not just the VR Headsets market in which Meta is investing. Regarding the latter market in detail, Meta currently has a dominant market share of 80% thanks to Oculus. Finally, I would like to express my opinion on the whole issue. No profitable business was built overnight, or even from one year to the next. The virtual reality market is still a great unknown, but we can already see the first signs of a fast-growing trend. Here are just a few:Oculus was among the top five entertainment apps in five countries on Christmas Eve, and it was the top app in the US on Christmas DayMeta's reality labs revenues increased by 100% from 2020 to 2021Jobs related to virtual reality are increasingly in demand.The biggest problem with financial markets is that they are not patient; results need to be immediate to see companies' stock prices rise. Uncertainty is not allowed, and currently Meta is investing in a field whose prospects are still uncertain after all. Personally, I believe in the potential of virtual reality, so I consider the recent collapse unjustified; Meta is sacrificing its profits in the short run to gain significant benefits in the long run.Meta's financial strengthAssuming that the investment in virtual reality does not bring the hoped-for benefits, would it really be a problem for Meta? Personally, I think it is not as bad as people think. Meta's 2021 free cash flow was $39.1 billion, with a current net debt of -$29.2 billion. All the investments already made in the metaverse would amount to about half of what this company can produce in a year. With such a strong Family of App segment, it is virtually impossible for Meta to run out of cash. By this I do not mean that any failure of the reality labs would not have negative consequences, but that it could be absorbed by the company because of its huge free cash flow.How much is Meta worth?Meta will be valued using three valuation methods: a discounted cash, multiples method, and technical analysis. Among the three models the DCF is the one I consider the most relevant, the other two serve as a confirmation to what has been stated.Discounted cash flowThrough this model I will calculate the present value of future cash flows, with the aim of extrapolating a fair value. The models that I am going to create will be two: one based on the assumptions that I consider most reliable and another based on deliberately overly negative assumptions. The reason I create the second model is to show that even in a dramatic scenario Facebook's cash flows are high enough to justify an initial purchase. The first model will be constructed as follows:WACC will be equal to the cost of equity since Meta has negative net debt.The cost of equity will be 9.75%. Its calculation includes a beta of 1.25, a country market risk premium of 4.2%, a risk-free rate of 3.5% and additional risk adjustments equal to 1%. I deliberately considered the latter value so high because of the uncertainty related to the reality labs segment.The growth rate for the first 5 years will be 10%, while the growth rate for the next 5 years will be 5%. Since Meta's free cash flow over the past three years has grown at 35.7% CAGR, these estimates discount not only rising costs related to the reality labs segment, but also a reduction in growth due to the inflationary environment.The growth rate will be calculated from free cash flow for the year 2021; data on shares outstanding and net debt belong to TIKR Terminal.Discounted cash flow (Sources already cited)Using these assumptions, Meta's fair value is $313.40, which is far higher than its current value. Even considering a 30% margin of safety Meta would be undervalued by 24%. It is very difficult to find such a solid company at such a discounted price, no FAANG is currently so undervalued in my opinion. The second model I am going to show is not considered realistic but is meant to give more awareness about this company. I will assume that Meta's growth rate is 0% over the next 10 years.Discounted cash flow (Sources already cited)Albeit by a small amount, Meta is undervalued even if it stopped growing 10 years from now. With a growth rate of 0% the fair value would be $181.19; at the time I am writing this article the company is trading at $177 per share. I strongly believe that the market is discounting an overly negative scenario.Multiples methodValuation multiples (TIKR Terminal)According to the multiples of the past 5 years, Meta continues to be considered undervalued. From what can be seen, the current multiples are well below the historical average and have now reached historical lows. It is true that expectations for future growth have been reduced, but not to such an extent as to justify a P/E of 14x and an EV/EBITDA of less than 10x. In my opinion, it is being assumed that investments in the metaverse will be unproductive and that the Family of App segment will cease its growth shortly.Technical analysis through RSITradingViewThe RSI indicator has never encountered such a low value, and today it is almost in an oversold zone. In 2019, a similar situation happened: the RSI touched 40 before jumping upward. We may be close to the bottom. If not, Meta is definitely a company that deserves to be averaged down. Below $200 a share is a bargain, even more at $180.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9025175565,"gmtCreate":1653649107157,"gmtModify":1676535320910,"author":{"id":"3586117857788402","authorId":"3586117857788402","authorIdStr":"3586117857788402","name":"Berlim","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/328c69252ea86895931cb5a113515f51","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3586117857788402"},"htmlText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"[Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025175565","repostId":2238722145,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9025963284,"gmtCreate":1653612425048,"gmtModify":1676535314043,"author":{"id":"4095210291416850","authorId":"4095210291416850","authorIdStr":"4095210291416850","name":"kktan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d40ae359aa7a4c5d62563dcdd850bf7e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095210291416850"},"htmlText":"At this stage, i would presume meta target of usd300 is reasonable but unachievable, stock market is an emotional place, not a rational one. As the fear builds up, I would rather wait for 100usd to come","listText":"At this stage, i would presume meta target of usd300 is reasonable but unachievable, stock market is an emotional place, not a rational one. As the fear builds up, I would rather wait for 100usd to come","text":"At this stage, i would presume meta target of usd300 is reasonable but unachievable, stock market is an emotional place, not a rational one. As the fear builds up, I would rather wait for 100usd to come","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025963284","repostId":2238722145,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9025999801,"gmtCreate":1653610262103,"gmtModify":1676535312908,"author":{"id":"4087109808120260","authorId":"4087109808120260","authorIdStr":"4087109808120260","name":"Tanyl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174329973340cf0f5b68791ee5b08afd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4087109808120260"},"htmlText":"Must invest FB, a strong co","listText":"Must invest FB, a strong co","text":"Must invest FB, a strong co","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025999801","repostId":2238722145,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9025046383,"gmtCreate":1653608896942,"gmtModify":1676535312151,"author":{"id":"3581548914971628","authorId":"3581548914971628","authorIdStr":"3581548914971628","name":"YekGuo98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bdd5398a1a15dc43469cee5e6b364b4","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581548914971628"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025046383","repostId":2238722145,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9025066246,"gmtCreate":1653607295385,"gmtModify":1676535311253,"author":{"id":"3574326723774097","authorId":"3574326723774097","authorIdStr":"3574326723774097","name":"Gackky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5898b44bf5a31bf2b9d4e37227ed8177","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574326723774097"},"htmlText":"said the tipsy Meta","listText":"said the tipsy Meta","text":"said the tipsy Meta","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025066246","repostId":2238722145,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9025081014,"gmtCreate":1653606597638,"gmtModify":1676535310892,"author":{"id":"3577938728188071","authorId":"3577938728188071","authorIdStr":"3577938728188071","name":"Melvin888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7e36200d6d8c6159f6d35c041d8e3e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577938728188071"},"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025081014","repostId":2238722145,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":303,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.3","shortVersion":"4.28.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2238722145"}