美联储会议纪要说了什么？更快行动，再来两次50个基点加息

华尔街见闻2022-05-25

摘要：美联储决策者认为，货币立场需要迅速转向更中性，超过中性水平的限制性政策可能变得适合。多数官员支持未来几次加息50个基点。多人认为，联储之前的沟通已助长金融环境收紧；可能适合未来抛售机构MBS，缩表可能影响金融市场环境。有评论称，纪要暗示加息有灵活性。美东时间25日周三公布的会议纪要显示，本月初的美联储货币政策会议上，联储决策者强调需要为遏制通胀迅速加息，可能超出市场预期，认为需要今年6月和7...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

yneymar
2022-05-26
yneymar
8i3jej4jrj

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2238879541?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-05-25 22:15","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2238879541","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美联储会议纪要说了什么？更快行动，再来两次50个基点加息","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>摘要：美联储决策者认为，货币立场需要迅速转向更中性，超过中性水平的限制性政策可能变得适合。多数官员支持未来几次加息50个基点。多人认为，联储之前的沟通已助长金融环境收紧；可能适合未来抛售机构MBS，缩表可能影响金融市场环境。有评论称，纪要暗示加息有灵活性。美东时间25日周三公布的会议纪要显示，本月初的美联储货币政策会议上，联储决策者强调需要为遏制通胀迅速加息，可能超出市场预期，认为需要今年6月和7...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储会议纪要说了什么？更快行动，再来两次50个基点加息</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储会议纪要说了什么？更快行动，再来两次50个基点加息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-05-25 22:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：美联储决策者认为，货币立场需要迅速转向更中性，超过中性水平的限制性政策可能变得适合。多数官员支持未来几次加息50个基点。多人认为，联储之前的沟通已助长金融环境收紧；可能适合未来抛售机构MBS，缩表可能影响金融市场环境。有评论称，纪要暗示加息有灵活性。美东时间25日周三公布的会议纪要显示，本月初的美联储货币政策会议上，联储决策者强调需要为遏制通胀迅速加息，可能超出市场预期，认为需要今年6月和7...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SDS","symbol_name":"两倍做空标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"","article_id":"2238879541","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238879541","pubTimestamp":1653488100,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"　　美东时间25日周三公布的会议纪要显示，本月初的美联储货币政策会议上，联储决策者强调需要为遏制通胀迅速加息，可能超出市场预期，认为需要今年6月和7月的最近两次会议都加息50个基点。联储上调近期重要通胀指标预期的行动还令外界猜测，可能今年内、下半年就结束这轮加息。　　在讨论美国经济前景时，纪要提到，美联储与会官员认为，货币政策可能不得不超过既不支持也不限制的中性水平。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"translate_title":"What did the minutes of the Fed meeting say? Move faster and raise interest rates by 50 basis points twice","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c621881bd8240a3549a1b6aefb265196","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"摘要：美联储决策者认为，货币立场需要迅速转向更中性，超过中性水平的限制性政策可能变得适合。多数官员支持未来几次加息50个基点。多人认为，联储之前的沟通已助长金融环境收紧；可能适合未来抛售机构MBS，缩表可能影响金融市场环境。有评论称，纪要暗示加息有灵活性。美东时间25日周三公布的会议纪要显示，本月初的美联储货币政策会议上，联储决策者强调需要为遏制通胀迅速加息，可能超出市场预期，认为需要今年6月和7月的最近两次会议都加息50个基点。在讨论美国经济前景时，纪要提到，美联储与会官员认为，货币政策可能不得不超过既不支持也不限制的中性水平。纪要称：“与会者一致认为，经济前景的不确定性高，决策应该视数据而定，着重于让通胀回到（美联储货币政策）委员会的目标2%，同时保持强劲的劳动力市场环境。当前，与会者判定，关键是要迅速地转向更中性（more neutral）的货币政策立场。他们还指出，鉴于正在变化的经济前景及前景的风险，限制性的（restrictive）政策立场可能变得适合。”在货币政策的决策方面，纪要提到与会者一致同意，美联储应通过加息和缩减资产负债表（缩表），“迅速地将货币政策立场转向中性。大多数（most）与会者认定，未来几次（next couple of）会议可能适合都加息50个基点。”多名与会者认为，美联储“之前的沟通已经有助于转变市场对政策前景的预期，让它更符合联储的评估，并已经助长金融环境收紧。”有评论认为，本次纪要确认，美联储高官认为需要6月和7月都和本月一样加息50个基点。还有评论称，纪要暗示，美联储对重新考虑激进加息持开放态度。花旗全球市场的董事总经理Eric Merlis评论称，他从纪要中看到，联储承认，他们不会轻率地一条道走下去，他们承认情况可能变化。而Charles Schwab的交易和衍生品董事总经理Randy Frederick认为，会议纪要几乎是一个月前的事了，市场这期间有很多时间变化，它不会真正影响任何未来的情况。评论认为，上述预期调整意义重大。彭博的策略师Vincent Cignarella就认为，虽然大多数联储官员都认为，未来要继续几次加息50个基点，继续激进行动会让联储拥有需要时转向的灵活性，但紧缩可能根本持续不了很长时间。Cignarell估计，如果上述PCE预期准确，就暗示着，要是再来三次50个基点的加息，美联储就会结束当前的收紧货币周期，这为今年下半年一大风险反扑铺平道路。此外，针对本次纪要显示，联储工作人员上调今年上半年和明年PCE通胀预期，有评论称，如果接下来三次都加息50个基点，就结束加息周期了。多人认为可能适合未来抛售机构MBS 缩表可能对金融市场环境有影响本月初的美联储会议决定二十二年来首度一次加息50个基点，会后还披露了缩表的路线图，将从6月1日开始行动，最初每月最多合计缩减475亿美元、其中300亿美元美国国债、175亿美元机构抵押支持证券（MBS），三个月后，月度缩减上限提升一倍。缩表计划显示，美联储并未选择主动抛售进行缩表，而是通过调整再投资系统公开市场账户（SOMA）所持证券的到期本金再投资规模。本次会议纪要显示，全体美联储与会者都支持缩表计划。多名（A number of）与会者表示，在缩表完全走上正轨后，将适合美联储考虑出售机构MBS，以此让SOMA的投资组合长期内主要由美国国债构成。任何抛售机构MBS的计划都将提前公布。在缩表相关的风险方面，多名（several）与会者指出，可能对金融市场环境有些意料之外的影响。收紧货币可能影响金融稳定 大宗商品相关风险增加纪要显示，谈及金融稳定的问题时，数名（several）与会者指出，美联储收紧货币政策可能和一些脆弱性相互作用，这些脆弱性有的和美国国债市场的流动性有关，有的和私人部门的金融中介能力有关。几名（A couple of）与会者指出，俄乌冲突爆发后，大宗商品相关的金融市场风险增加。冲突已导致多种能源、农产品和金属的价格上涨、并且全面波动。他们认为，对监管机构而言，一些大宗商品市场关键参与者的交易和风险管理行动不能充分可见，并指出，中央对手方（CCP）需要保持面对更高波动、以及更高保证金要求的风险管理能力。俄乌冲突增加经济风险 迅速撤宽松对美联储有利本月初的美联储会议声明重申，俄罗斯对乌克兰的行动“造成巨大的”经济困难，“美国经济经济所受到影响有很高的不确定性”，表示“侵袭及相关事件正在对通胀制造新的上行压力，可能也给经济活动施压。” 声明还首次提到，中国疫情“可能激化供应链干扰”。本次纪要显示，与会者在会上指出，俄乌冲突和中国疫情让美国和全球经济的风险增加。多名与会者认为，货币政策面临既要恢复价格稳定、又要保持劳动力市场强劲的挑战。鉴于经济前景相关的不确定性很高，与会者认定，在政策立场方面，考虑到风险管理是很重要的。多名与会者认定，迅速撤除货币宽松将让美联储今年晚些时候处于有利地位，能届时评估政策的影响，以及经济变化对政策调整有多大的保障。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9022643550,"gmtCreate":1653526092370,"gmtModify":1676535298210,"author":{"id":"4113465354959822","authorId":"4113465354959822","name":"yneymar","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1639b17bc4a859e955aad4b472a08717","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4113465354959822","authorIdStr":"4113465354959822"},"htmlText":"8i3jej4jrj","listText":"8i3jej4jrj","text":"8i3jej4jrj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022643550","repostId":2238879541,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":33,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2238879541"}