美联储又踩了通胀的雷

格隆汇2022-06-11

2021年以来,美联储接连在通胀上踩雷,本预期在5月继续回落的美国CPI,却意外回升。如我们此前的估计,2022年下半年通胀仍将是潜在的风险。5月超市场预期的数据下,通胀在年中回落的梦破碎了,那么,如何理解这对后续美联储货币政策和美国经济的影响呢?通胀越高,衰退越快。背后的逻辑在于美联储只能通过快速加息来压制通胀,后续加息会更猛,美联储的决心也将更大,而这将抑制需求,对美国经济形成压制。从数据上...

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