以史为鉴，美股熊市会持续多久？

智通财经2022-06-17

对投资者来说，今年是艰难的一年。6月13日（周一）美股收盘时，道琼斯指数和标普500指数分别较1月份的历史高点下跌了17.1%和21.8%。传统上的熊市是指较近期高点下跌20%或以上，这意味着标普500正式进入熊市。智通财经APP注意到，成长型股票驱动的纳斯达克综合指数表现更差。在去年11月创下历史新高后，该指数已累计下跌32.7%。这一跌幅实际上与纳斯达克指数在2020年3月新冠疫情暴跌期间的...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Sochkio
2022-06-18
Sochkio
👏
ivyteo6911
2022-06-17
ivyteo6911
🤔🤔🤔

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243854891?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-06-17 08:18","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2243854891","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"以史为鉴，美股熊市会持续多久？","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>对投资者来说，今年是艰难的一年。6月13日（周一）美股收盘时，道琼斯指数和标普500指数分别较1月份的历史高点下跌了17.1%和21.8%。传统上的熊市是指较近期高点下跌20%或以上，这意味着标普500正式进入熊市。智通财经APP注意到，成长型股票驱动的纳斯达克综合指数表现更差。在去年11月创下历史新高后，该指数已累计下跌32.7%。这一跌幅实际上与纳斯达克指数在2020年3月新冠疫情暴跌期间的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/740067.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美股熊市会持续多久？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美股熊市会持续多久？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-17 08:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/740067.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>对投资者来说，今年是艰难的一年。6月13日（周一）美股收盘时，道琼斯指数和标普500指数分别较1月份的历史高点下跌了17.1%和21.8%。传统上的熊市是指较近期高点下跌20%或以上，这意味着标普500正式进入熊市。智通财经APP注意到，成长型股票驱动的纳斯达克综合指数表现更差。在去年11月创下历史新高后，该指数已累计下跌32.7%。这一跌幅实际上与纳斯达克指数在2020年3月新冠疫情暴跌期间的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/740067.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4561","symbol_name":"索罗斯持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/740067.html","article_id":"2243854891","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243854891","pubTimestamp":1655425130,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"传统上的熊市是指较近期高点下跌20%或以上，这意味着标普500正式进入熊市。美国三大股指中有两个目前处于熊市，市场普遍很关心一个问题：熊市会持续多久?典型熊市的持续时间永远无法提前准确地知道熊市或调整何时会发生，它会持续多久，或指数会下跌多少。然而，“现代”熊市一旦发生，持续的时间往往会更长。如果用这些数据作为路线图，它表明当前的熊市可能会比历史平均水平持续更长时间。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4007":"制药","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","ARTL":"Artelo Biosciences, Inc.","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","DIA":"道琼斯ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"translate_title":"Taking history as a mirror, how long will the bear market of US stocks last?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bcc4b4cbfe8fa49e72c6f73ca59cb82","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.83,"QQQ":0.67,"03086":0.64,"NDX":0.64,"ARTL":0.64,"DIA":0.64,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"对投资者来说，今年是艰难的一年。6月13日（周一）美股收盘时，道琼斯指数和标普500指数分别较1月份的历史高点下跌了17.1%和21.8%。传统上的熊市是指较近期高点下跌20%或以上，这意味着标普500正式进入熊市。智通财经APP注意到，成长型股票驱动的纳斯达克综合指数表现更差。在去年11月创下历史新高后，该指数已累计下跌32.7%。这一跌幅实际上与纳斯达克指数在2020年3月新冠疫情暴跌期间的跌幅相当。美国三大股指中有两个目前处于熊市，市场普遍很关心一个问题：熊市会持续多久?典型熊市的持续时间永远无法提前准确地知道熊市或调整何时会发生，它会持续多久，或指数会下跌多少。在许多情况下，市场不可能在崩盘或修正发生之前预测什么因素会导致崩盘或修正。但有大量的数据，可以让投资者对道琼斯指数、标准普尔500指数或纳斯达克综合指数下跌的时间和幅度做出有根据的猜测。自1950年初以来，标准普尔500指数已经经历了11次熊市（指的是20%或更大的跌幅）。平均而言，典型的熊市需要388.8个日历日，也就是大约1年零3周的时间才能触底。尽管没有两次熊市是相同的，但之前20%以上的跌幅确实为投资者提供了一个相当大的线索，让投资者知道在标准普尔500指数深陷急剧下跌的情况下，其他投资者可能会做出什么样的预期。在华尔街“现代”的时期，熊市的频率明显下降了。在20世纪80年代中期之前，计算机在华尔街并不像今天这样普遍。没有广泛的自动化传输交易数据，甚至传播来自华尔街的消息都需要时间。这使得谣言和投机持续存在，导致在短短25年(1957-1982年)内出现了6次熊市。相比之下，自1987年底以来(包括目前的下跌)只有四次熊市。在现代社会，打破华尔街和普通大众之间的信息壁垒，已经非常有效地阻止了熊市。然而，“现代”熊市一旦发生，持续的时间往往会更长。例如，自1950年以来，互联网泡沫比其他任何一次熊市都多花了近300天的时间才跌至谷底。与此同时，长达517天的大衰退熊市是1982年以来除互联网泡沫外最长的回调。如果用这些数据作为路线图，它表明当前的熊市可能会比历史平均水平持续更长时间。然而，这也意味着一个漫长的牛市可能随之而来。熊市中投资的三个方法在熊市投资时，有三种策略可以减少下行风险敞口，提高长期回报潜力。首先，使用平均成本法。平均成本法是指在固定的时间间隔内买入股票，而不考虑价格，或者在特定的价格点买入股票，而不考虑大盘走势。对于投资者来说，这是一种进入他们认为随着时间的推移会跑赢大盘的公司或增持其股份的方式。这是一个特别聪明的投资策略，因为大多数在线券商已经放弃了佣金和最低存款要求。第二，倾向于分红股。派发股息的公司几乎都是盈利的，并且经受住了时间的考验，这意味着它们以前已经度过了衰退和/或大规模的市场回调。从历史上看，派息股票在很长一段时间内的表现都远远好于不派息类股票。第三，购买防御性股票，或在基本需求行业运营的公司的股票。提供电力、水或废物管理的公司提供基本的必需品服务，这些公司不应该受到华尔街波动的影响。同样，关注非必需食品和家庭用品的消费品类股，以及医疗保健类股，这些都属于防御型股，在市场暴跌时可以跑赢大盘。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9057648459,"gmtCreate":1655513926971,"gmtModify":1676535653886,"author":{"id":"3569024945901577","authorId":"3569024945901577","name":"Sochkio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eda332522c086f2f5a4de481a4859f7","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569024945901577","authorIdStr":"3569024945901577"},"htmlText":"👏","listText":"👏","text":"👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057648459","repostId":2243854891,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9054709549,"gmtCreate":1655425891881,"gmtModify":1676535635966,"author":{"id":"3577362879194763","authorId":"3577362879194763","name":"ivyteo6911","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b70214e6e148476bcc23102cef4a8dc3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577362879194763","authorIdStr":"3577362879194763"},"htmlText":"🤔🤔🤔","listText":"🤔🤔🤔","text":"🤔🤔🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054709549","repostId":2243854891,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":41,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2243854891"}