巴克莱：7月美联储只会加息50基点

华尔街见闻2022-06-16

在市场普遍预期美联储在6月加息50个基点的时候，巴克莱利率策略师Jonathan Millar和 Ajay Rajadhyaksha率先喊出了加息75个基点的预测。事实证明，巴克莱是对的。当地时间周三，美联储如期加息75个基点，这是沃尔克执掌美联储时1994年11月以来联储最大的单次加息幅度。然而，美联储前脚官宣，两位策略师后脚又抢先做出“美联储将在7月恢复加息50个基点”的预测，理由是消费和...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Jamesim
2022-06-16
Jamesim
👍

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243922860?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-06-16 09:50","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2243922860","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"巴克莱：7月美联储只会加息50基点","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>在市场普遍预期美联储在6月加息50个基点的时候，巴克莱利率策略师Jonathan Millar和 Ajay Rajadhyaksha率先喊出了加息75个基点的预测。事实证明，巴克莱是对的。当地时间周三，美联储如期加息75个基点，这是沃尔克执掌美联储时1994年11月以来联储最大的单次加息幅度。然而，美联储前脚官宣，两位策略师后脚又抢先做出“美联储将在7月恢复加息50个基点”的预测，理由是消费和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662128\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴克莱：7月美联储只会加息50基点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴克莱：7月美联储只会加息50基点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-16 09:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662128><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在市场普遍预期美联储在6月加息50个基点的时候，巴克莱利率策略师Jonathan Millar和 Ajay Rajadhyaksha率先喊出了加息75个基点的预测。事实证明，巴克莱是对的。当地时间周三，美联储如期加息75个基点，这是沃尔克执掌美联储时1994年11月以来联储最大的单次加息幅度。然而，美联储前脚官宣，两位策略师后脚又抢先做出“美联储将在7月恢复加息50个基点”的预测，理由是消费和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662128\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4550","symbol_name":"红杉资本持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662128","article_id":"2243922860","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662128","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243922860","pubTimestamp":1655344208,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"在市场普遍预期美联储在6月加息50个基点的时候，巴克莱利率策略师Jonathan Millar和 Ajay Rajadhyaksha率先喊出了加息75个基点的预测。事实证明，巴克莱是对的。当地时间周三","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"translate_title":"Barclays: The Fed will only raise interest rates by 50 basis points in July","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c45f60f84485e9c1e29808fae2fb7e4","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"在市场普遍预期美联储在6月加息50个基点的时候，巴克莱利率策略师Jonathan Millar和 Ajay Rajadhyaksha率先喊出了加息75个基点的预测。事实证明，巴克莱是对的。当地时间周三，美联储如期加息75个基点，这是沃尔克执掌美联储时1994年11月以来联储最大的单次加息幅度。然而，美联储前脚官宣，两位策略师后脚又抢先做出“美联储将在7月恢复加息50个基点”的预测，理由是消费和房地产市场正在出现放缓的迹象。首先是消费端。巴克莱认为，虽然消费端在过去一整年都在支撑美国经济，但是家庭最终会对高通胀和实际工资负增长做出反应。巴克莱的高频信用卡数据显示，过去4至6周，商品和服务的支出步伐均有所放缓，并且来自高端和低端消费者。此外，刚刚公布的零售销售数据显示，美国5月零售销售环比下跌0.3%，上周的密歇根大学消费者信心更是创历史最低，这均表明消费端的情况大为不妙。另外，有零售商表示库存过剩说明需求正在回落。因此第二季度消费很可能会放缓。其次是房地产。虽然美国当前的房地产市场增长尚未放缓，但是与其相关的经济活动已经开始降温。比如，从1月到4月，成屋销售下降了13%，新屋销售下降了近30%，巴克莱认为这并不是因为抵押贷款利率大幅上涨。贷款通常在交易结束前两个月被锁定，这意味着抵押贷款利率最近上涨150-200个基点并未影响房屋销售。巴克莱预测，房屋销售要在今年晚些时候才能触底。另外，租金通胀的高峰可能即将到来。租房平台Zillow和 REIS等的房租已经在去年第四季度达到顶峰，巴克莱认为这反应到CPI数据上会存在两到三个季度的延迟。不过，这仍表明租金通胀压力即将缓解。巴克莱在报告结尾中表示：宣布加息75个基点是一个强有力的举措。美联储做了一个。鉴于我们在经济和住房方面看到的情况，我们认为它不需要再做一次。我们认为它在7月会恢复加息50个基点。”值得一提的是，彼时市场的预期是美联储将在7月再次加息75基点。美国联邦基金利率掉期互换7/9月报140个基点，表明交易员预计FOMC将在7月份再次加息75个基点。市场预计，美联储将在7月的议息会议上会再加息75个基点，9月的议息会议上，加息75个基点的概率为40%。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9054361024,"gmtCreate":1655344290068,"gmtModify":1676535618801,"author":{"id":"4088770777339480","authorId":"4088770777339480","name":"Jamesim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b24b077e00da0c09cdbd3013999d3f","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4088770777339480","authorIdStr":"4088770777339480"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054361024","repostId":2243922860,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2243922860"}