外媒头条 | 华尔街大佬警告美国经济明年陷入衰退

环球市场播报2022-06-15

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、Omega Advisors董事长预测2023年经济将陷入衰退2、明年还是后年年末？市场人士对美联储降息时间意见相左3、对冲基金疯狂撤离美股市场速度达到有记录以来最快4、美国生产者物价指数大幅上涨给美联储增添行动压力5、对俄制裁导致北溪管道所用设备滞留境外欧洲气荒恐要持续一段时间6、美债深陷几十年来最猛烈抛售潮 2-10年期收益率曲线一度倒挂...

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雪莲子
2022-06-16
雪莲子
😓
股市轟炸机队长
2022-06-15
股市轟炸机队长
華爾街大佬動作頻頻一直喊衰退，你覺得他們在圖什麼呢？[賤笑]
CSNeo
2022-06-15
CSNeo
[財迷]
chtan1117
2022-06-15
chtan1117
Up
Paggie
2022-06-15
Paggie
閱
北纬1度线
2022-06-15
北纬1度线
[流淚] [流淚]

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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-15/doc-imizirau8501546.shtml?finpagefr=p_115><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、Omega Advisors董事长预测2023年经济将陷入衰退2、明年还是后年年末？市场人士对美联储降息时间意见相左3、对冲基金疯狂撤离美股市场 速度达到有记录以来最快4、美国生产者物价指数大幅上涨 给美联储增添行动压力5、对俄制裁导致北溪管道所用设备滞留境外 欧洲气荒恐要持续一段时间6、美债深陷几十年来最猛烈抛售潮 2-10年期收益率曲线一度倒挂...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-15/doc-imizirau8501546.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">Source 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Cooperman周二表示，他相信石油或美联储将在2023年的某个时候让美国陷入经济衰退。他还表示，股市可能从峰值下跌40%，他在去年12月提到的4100点将是标普500指数一段时间内的高位。此外，Cooperman指出，美国自2008年以来没有出现过经济衰退，因此“我们早该衰退”；但市场流动性太多，使得今年不会发生衰退。Cooperman担心，美国现在有一个“非常非常有毒的财政货币政策组合”。明年还是后年年末？市场人士对美联储降息时间意见相左市场正在加码对美联储更快收紧货币政策的押注，而降息预期也开始迅速显现，交易员和经济学家对经济可能在多久后放缓存在意见分歧。货币市场认为本月和下月美联储将史无前例的一次性升息75基点，而且此后还会继续收紧货币政策，此举将加大经济受冲击的概率。预计美联储两年内将进行三次75基点的降息，创下全球金融危机爆发前以来的最大规模。这种观点和接受调查的经济学家观点相左，他们认为第一次降息要到2024年末才会来临。“我们现在处于风暴的眼中，通胀是一个关键风险，但市场认为经济正在走向衰退和硬着陆，” ，Fil Investment Management Limited固定收益全球首席投资官Steve Ellis表示。 “ 美联储必须小心，有很多因素在起作用。他们有可能对政策收紧过度，之后就不得不放松政策。”对冲基金疯狂撤离美股市场 速度达到有记录以来最快随着恶性抛售导致标普500指数跌入熊市，机构投资者以有史以来最快的速度逃离美股市场。高盛追踪的对冲基金周一连续第七天减持美国股票，过去两个交易日的抛售额达到2008年4月跟踪此类数据以来的最高水平。股市下跌势头愈演愈烈，因为市场担心美联储加快抗通胀行动可能引发经济衰退。随着股市下跌和美国国债收益率飙升，短线资金争相做空。高盛在周二发布的报告中称，对冲基金客户的卖空活动“激增”。美国生产者物价指数大幅上涨 给美联储增添行动压力美国5月生产者物价指数飙升，凸显整个经济当中通胀压力持续存在，有可能会令美联储继续激进地加息。美国劳工部周二公布的数据显示，5月份最终需求PPI环比上升0.8%，同比走高10.8%。之前一个月环比走高0.4%。5月份近三分之二的增长是由商品价格，尤其是能源价格走高所致。不包括食品和能源，核心PPI 5月份环比上涨0.5%，同比上涨8.3%。该数据再次凸显了通胀会比大部分经济学家和美联储所预期的持续更久、且更高。上周发布的数据显示，美国5月CPI意外升至四十年高点，物价普遍上涨，浇灭了通胀开始企稳的希望。对俄制裁导致北溪管道所用设备滞留境外 欧洲气荒恐要持续一段时间西方对俄罗斯的制裁导致北溪天然气管道的关键设备滞留境外，意味着在未来一段时间里，通过这条关键管线向德国输气可能受到限制。要求不具名的知情人士称，由于制裁，西门子能源生产的涡轮机在加拿大维修保养后无法送还。知情人士说，另一台也要维修保养的涡轮机无法送往海外维保。俄罗斯天然气工业公司周二早些时候表示，由于波罗的海岸边压缩站的技术问题，该公司将把北溪管道的供气量减少40%。俄气称责任在西门子，这家德国公司未能及时将维修保养的设备及时送回。欧洲天然气价格一度飙升21%。在俄气减少供气之前，作为今年美国对欧供气的关键渠道，德克萨斯州一个液化天然气终端因事故暂停，重启所需时间超过预期。不过，德国经济部表示，供应安全“目前有保障”。美债深陷几十年来最猛烈抛售潮 2-10年期收益率曲线一度倒挂　美国国债市场仍然草木皆兵，处于四十年来最严重的抛售潮之一，收益率徘徊在多年高点附近。10年期国债收益率一度上涨11个基点，至11年高点3.47%。2年期国债收益率触及3.44%，为2007年以来的最高水平。短短三天时间里，短期收益率累计上涨超过60个基点，为1987年以来最大涨幅。交易员们翘首等待美联储周三的利率决定，目前市场认为加息75基点几乎已是板上钉钉，如果预期属实，这将是1994年以来的最大升息幅度。 2年期和10年期收益率曲线周二再次短暂倒挂，凸显市场对货币紧缩可能引发经济衰退的担忧。“我们在这里寻找的实际上是中性水平，”Threadnedle Investments高级利率策略师Ed 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