牛鞭效应正在反转！亚马逊Prime Day消费狂欢只是折扣狂欢

华尔街见闻2022-07-16

为期两日（7月12日至7月13日）、属于美国人民的“双十一”亚马逊Prime Day本周落下帷幕，“爆炸式”消费似乎推翻了此前市场担忧的美国消费者信心“崩塌”。全球电商巨头亚马逊周四表示，在今年的Prime Day活动中其会员购买了超过3亿件商品，共计119亿美元的战绩使其成为该公司历史上最大的Prime Day活动。活动期间，亚马逊商店销售合作伙伴的销售额增长超过了该公司的零售业务，顾客在抽奖...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Youn7276
2022-07-17
Youn7276
Ok
太好多多
2022-07-17
太好多多
還好還好
老八公
2022-07-16
老八公
wow
hangyuliang
2022-07-16
hangyuliang
[微笑]
Linda2240
2022-07-16
Linda2240
[微笑]
yuliang559
2022-07-16
yuliang559
[微笑]

Leave a comment

145

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2251745455?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dcab47335b8ae75b1a72cadf884fc8","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-07-16 09:37","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2251745455","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"牛鞭效应正在反转！亚马逊Prime Day消费狂欢只是折扣狂欢","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>为期两日（7月12日至7月13日）、属于美国人民的“双十一”亚马逊Prime Day本周落下帷幕，“爆炸式”消费似乎推翻了此前市场担忧的美国消费者信心“崩塌”。全球电商巨头亚马逊周四表示，在今年的Prime Day活动中其会员购买了超过3亿件商品，共计119亿美元的战绩使其成为该公司历史上最大的Prime Day活动。活动期间，亚马逊商店销售合作伙伴的销售额增长超过了该公司的零售业务，顾客在抽奖...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664944\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>牛鞭效应正在反转！亚马逊Prime Day消费狂欢只是折扣狂欢</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n牛鞭效应正在反转！亚马逊Prime Day消费狂欢只是折扣狂欢\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-16 09:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664944><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>为期两日（7月12日至7月13日）、属于美国人民的“双十一”亚马逊Prime Day本周落下帷幕，“爆炸式”消费似乎推翻了此前市场担忧的美国消费者信心“崩塌”。全球电商巨头亚马逊周四表示，在今年的Prime Day活动中其会员购买了超过3亿件商品，共计119亿美元的战绩使其成为该公司历史上最大的Prime Day活动。活动期间，亚马逊商店销售合作伙伴的销售额增长超过了该公司的零售业务，顾客在抽奖...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664944\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4527","symbol_name":"明星科技股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664944","article_id":"2251745455","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dcab47335b8ae75b1a72cadf884fc8"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664944","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2251745455","pubTimestamp":1657935455,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"亚马逊为期两日的Prime Day成为2022年迄今为止美国最大的网络购物日，鉴于其消费提振基于其巨大折扣，分析认为牛鞭效应正在反转。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4524":"宅经济概念"},"translate_title":"The bullwhip effect is reversing! Amazon Prime Day consumption carnival is just a discount carnival","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f97bff861e77fcf539864f6b7ccd3a3e","symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":1},"content_text":"为期两日（7月12日至7月13日）、属于美国人民的“双十一”亚马逊Prime Day本周落下帷幕，“爆炸式”消费似乎推翻了此前市场担忧的美国消费者信心“崩塌”。全球电商巨头亚马逊周四表示，在今年的Prime Day活动中其会员购买了超过3亿件商品，共计119亿美元的战绩使其成为该公司历史上最大的Prime Day活动。活动期间，亚马逊商店销售合作伙伴的销售额增长超过了该公司的零售业务，顾客在抽奖比赛中购买了超过1亿件小企业商品，花费超过30亿美元。据Adobe数字经济指数(Adobe Digital Economy Index)，亚马逊Prime Day首日销售额达60亿美元，较去年增长7.8%，成为2022年迄今为止美国最大的网络购物日。次日销售额达59亿美元，两日销售额同比增长8.5%。不过，卖的多并不意味着卖的好，也不能直接与消费信心重振所挂钩。市场研究公司Numerator的基于首日的统计数据也显示，此次卖出商品类别以日用消费品居多，最畅销的产品包括尿布、美容产品等等，有57%的消费者购买的商品售价低于20美元，只有5%的消费者购买的售价超过100美元。花旗银行分析认为，此次消费者购买狂潮主要得益于亚马逊平台前所未有的折扣。比如亚马逊Fire TV 50英寸4K电视此次低至2.1折，而针对9月开学季的住宿校园生活用品也大打折扣。随着牛鞭效应的逆转，折扣较大的奥特莱斯也会受到冲击。所谓“牛鞭效应”，指供应链上的一种需求变异放大现象，使信息流从最终客户端向原始供应商端传递时，无法有效地实现信息共享，使得信息扭曲而逐级放大，导致了需求信息出现越来越大的波动，此信息扭曲的放大作用在图形上很像一个甩起的牛鞭，因此被形象地称为牛鞭效应。此前，当美国消费者沉浸在“前所未有”的折扣季中时，当那些供应链混乱时期的紧俏商品被任意挑选时，相对应的，是美国零售商正在面临自互联网泡沫破灭以来最严重的“库存危机”。华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及，美国零售业“牛鞭效应”正接近尾声，库存过剩迫使美国进口商减少海外订单，从而压低海运费用，最终可能导致货运业衰退。零售巨头Target和沃尔玛指出，5月美国消费品进口总额下降了约15亿美元，表明海外产品的需求正在下降，消费者耐用品方面支出大幅减少。按照“大空头原型”Michael Burry的说法，零售业此前的供给过剩形成了“牛鞭效应”，而随着需求放缓，“牛鞭效应”迎来终结，并将在今年晚些时候引发通货紧缩，促使美联储逆转紧缩之路，甚至重启宽松。此外，美国银行经济学家Aditya Bhave此前对7月初独立日假日消费数据进行了分析，按照BAC汇总的信用卡和借记卡衡量，在截至7月9日的两周内，支出只有一个小幅的\"节日冲击\"，同比增长3.5%。考虑到美国目前已经高达9.1%的通胀率，今年支出的\"节日冲击\"比前三年都要小。美银此前的观点是，实际的经济活动正在放缓，美国将于2022年下半年启动温和衰退，将年末标普500指数目标点位从之前的4500点下调至3600点，同时还预测美联储的QT将比预期更快结束。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9072147835,"gmtCreate":1658009456327,"gmtModify":1676536091601,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072147835","repostId":2251745455,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9072146717,"gmtCreate":1658008288839,"gmtModify":1676536091527,"author":{"id":"3551484903073577","authorId":"3551484903073577","name":"太好多多","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeedca4a78d91824065f6cae381b8577","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3551484903073577","authorIdStr":"3551484903073577"},"htmlText":"還好還好","listText":"還好還好","text":"還好還好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072146717","repostId":2251745455,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9072129096,"gmtCreate":1657986915415,"gmtModify":1676536090958,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072129096","repostId":2251745455,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9072189739,"gmtCreate":1657983476921,"gmtModify":1676536090519,"author":{"id":"3581648325885484","authorId":"3581648325885484","name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581648325885484","authorIdStr":"3581648325885484"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072189739","repostId":2251745455,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9072189342,"gmtCreate":1657983346186,"gmtModify":1676536090504,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072189342","repostId":2251745455,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9072180780,"gmtCreate":1657983157640,"gmtModify":1676536090489,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072180780","repostId":2251745455,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":145,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2251745455"}