S&P 500 could drop dramatically in months ahead: Guggenheim

The Australian Financial Review2022-08-20

US stocks are in trouble if the S&P 500, which has rebounded about 16 per cent from its 2022 low in mid-June, fails to break through its 200-day moving average, according to Guggenheim Partners.In a ...

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A failure to break the 200-day moving average could portend much deeper losses for equities in the months ahead.“Additionally, it is noteworthy that the current rally has failed to break the downtrend that has been in place since the beginning of the year.”The S&P 500 slid 1.3 per cent to 4228.48 on Friday in New York.The firm pointed to what happened in 2008 when a then market recovery stalled just below the 200-day moving average.“The S&P 500 went on to fall another 53 per cent before bottoming in March 2009, bringing the peak-to-trough decline to 57 per cent. Similarly, the bear market of 2000–2002 saw several failed breakout attempts that ultimately resolved in a peak-to-trough decline of 49 per cent. Also worth noting is that the downtrend was not broken in either of these episodes.”Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin said in his weekly kickstart note that downside risks loom.“Renewed fears about the prospect of a recession would almost surely unwind the recent rally. While the US economy has not entered a recession yet in 2022, our economists estimate the probability of a downturn during the next 12 months at about one in three. In the event of a recession, we forecast the index could fall to 3150.”In contrast, Fundstrat Global is holding fast to its bullish call for the second half: “our team is convinced that any positive catalysts or resolution of key macro issues could lead to a pretty fierce rally.”“The character of the decline in 1H 2022 was not one of panicked desperation but rather orderly despite the extreme multiple compression that occurred in stocks with a high proportion of their net present value comprised of future earnings. The pervasive bearishness on the street means that the amount of dry powder on the sidelines is also very high.”The latest weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors found that despite the rally pessimism persists.Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 0.5 percentage points to 37.2 per cent, the AAII said. In addition, bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 30.5 per cent for the 38th time out of the past 39 weeks.The AAII said bullish sentiment continues to recover: expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months increased 1.2 percentage points to 33.3 per cent - the highest level of optimism since late December.However, bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 38.0 per cent for the 39th consecutive week, the survey found.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2260714643"}