牛市未尽！大宗商品新一波“火热”行情即将启动？

华尔街见闻2022-08-22

经济衰退“对垒”供应短缺，谁将主导商品市场未来走势？今年以来，全球大宗商品价格跌宕起伏。开春，受供给侧制约推动，大宗商品涨势如虹，棉花、铜、石油、铁矿石、铝等期货价格不断创出新高。入夏，在强美元、弱经济预期等不利因素的冲击下，商品市场分化明显，不少主力品种出现了深度回调。进入8月，大宗商品价格虽有反弹，但仍处于弱势。例如，尽管周三EIA库存超预期骤降710万桶，但仍未推动油价大幅上行。截至发稿，...

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Comments

hhyw
2022-08-23
hhyw
好
陳春豐
2022-08-23
陳春豐
👍👍
kuro123
2022-08-23
kuro123
.
ElevenL
2022-08-22
ElevenL
早就已經是熊市了吧
Ysw16888
2022-08-22
Ysw16888
啊

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Currie表示，“非理性预期导致了不可持续的价格”：“如今，大宗商品市场似乎存在非理性预期，价格和库存同时下降，需求超过预期，供应不及预期。”进一步，Currie指出，如果这种说法被证明是错误的，而且这种供应过剩未能成为现实，那么补充库存的热潮将推动商品稀缺，并在秋季大幅推高价格。这可能迫使央行更积极地收紧货币政策，并造成更持久的经济收缩。Currie在研报中称：“如今，股市和大宗商品市场向投资者发出的信号是，需求更加持久，大宗商品价格上涨，而利率和通胀曲线则暗示经济即将放缓和走软。在我们看到真正的大宗商品基本面软化之前，我们仍然相信前者，而不是后者。”瑞银：大宗商品供给担忧或“卷土重来”8月15日，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（CIO）发表报告表示，该机构认为大宗商品处于超卖状态，虽然仍有长期风险，但中短期有望获得收益。瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官Mark Haefele及其团队认为，全球经济增长前景恶化、美元走强是当下主导大宗商品价格走向的影响因素。尽管大宗商品价格可能在全球经济陷入深度衰退的情况下进一步下跌，但目前来看“软着陆”和经济明显放缓的可能性一样大。该团队还预计，未来中国对大宗商品的需求将出现反弹。供应方面，该团队表示，大宗商品市场的过度悲观预测并没有充分考虑到供应方面的动态。总体而言，大宗商品供应会受到限制，由于多年的投资不足、多个行业的官方库存都很低，以及天气和地缘政治因素，“我们看到了积极的需求趋势”。该团队还表示，对供应短缺的担忧可能卷土重来。工业金属和钢铁作为新大宗商品周期的核心和脱碳化过程中的必要原料，或将有力助推商品价格复苏：“虽然这种说法并不新鲜，但我们认为，世界仍没有准备好应对与向清洁能源转型相关的需求激增。尽管价格上涨，但十年来的低回报率以及对环境、社会和治理（ESG）的担忧，已经限制了对铜等关键金属未来供应增长的投资。”该团队预计，未来6-12个月，广泛大宗商品指数有望取得15%-20%的回报率。Variant Perception：大宗商品交易流动性不足，加剧逼空可能性投资研究公司 Variant Perception 的观点认为，当下正处在商品超级周期的“间歇”，2022年下半年大宗商品走势整体会呈现“大幅波动、小幅指向偏差”。该机构认为，当下大宗商品价格走势与将04年第四季度、06年下半年的走势较为类似。该机构还表示，大宗商品期货交易流动性不足，也将放大逼空反弹的可能性，正如大宗商品交易机构托克首席执行官Jeremy Weir所言：“大宗商品期货市场缺乏深度，似乎将继续是该行业面临的一个挑战，因为所有参与者都减少了对衍生品的交易，进而对大宗商品实物交易的能力构成压力。”民生证券：周期的重定价之路已正式开启民生策略分析师牟一凌认为，全球市场提前交易了“衰退=通胀下行”，背后隐含的假设是只要通过紧缩的货币政策将需求曲线重新左移，就可以实现价格水平的回落，从“滞胀”中逃离，进入衰退后的宽松。不过，由于绿色通胀和人口逆转都在发生作用，长周期变化正在与短经济周期形成角力，目前通胀正在呈现粘性。牟一凌表示：“在充分定价了短期需求下行后，长期通胀的问题将驱动市场定价的重新修正。”进一步，牟一凌称，考虑到海外的衰退交易正在告一段落，通胀粘性正在被重新定价，而国内的限电冲击也将催化本就亟待被重估的传统能源的产能价值，结合当下老能源正成为全球交易的关注点，动力煤、油气和电力，以及工业金属（铝、铜）在需求预期修复中的弹性不应该被忽视。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9996489294,"gmtCreate":1661210900920,"gmtModify":1676536472996,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996489294","repostId":2261544041,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9996419143,"gmtCreate":1661210435484,"gmtModify":1676536472692,"author":{"id":"4095662847592050","authorId":"4095662847592050","name":"陳春豐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c8eb12bec8afafb41e4c1d36d3d754","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095662847592050","authorIdStr":"4095662847592050"},"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996419143","repostId":2261544041,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9996581796,"gmtCreate":1661202798617,"gmtModify":1676536470171,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996581796","repostId":2261544041,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9996227824,"gmtCreate":1661178688272,"gmtModify":1676536468063,"author":{"id":"3559011336945820","authorId":"3559011336945820","name":"ElevenL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5984497b7f8e8a6467962d5664a69b9","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559011336945820","authorIdStr":"3559011336945820"},"htmlText":"早就已經是熊市了吧","listText":"早就已經是熊市了吧","text":"早就已經是熊市了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996227824","repostId":2261544041,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9996211446,"gmtCreate":1661175333088,"gmtModify":1676536467003,"author":{"id":"3564911897267160","authorId":"3564911897267160","name":"Ysw16888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1423ff0b5d25f0f11370c91853168cc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564911897267160","authorIdStr":"3564911897267160"},"htmlText":"啊","listText":"啊","text":"啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996211446","repostId":2261544041,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":69,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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