Cathie Wood Buys the Dip, Ray Dalio Does the Maths

The Australian Financial Review2022-09-15

Cathie Wood sees deflation coming, but Ray Dalio has a very different view. He thinks higher rates could force stocks down another 20 per cent.It’s pretty wild out there. Just a day after Wall Street ...

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Comments

Cam20
2022-09-15
Cam20
[Cool] [Cool] [Cool]
- Squ00:
  Ok
- Squ00:
  Ok
- Squ00:
  Ok
- Squ00:
  Ok
- Squ00:
  [Observation]
Bull1973
2022-09-15
Bull1973
Ok
Scpy
2022-09-15
Scpy
50% Likely even guesstimate. Still room for further dip. Hold on
NgKenny
2022-09-15
NgKenny
Nice
- snd:
  Thanks
Ahsiang
2022-09-15
Ahsiang
Sure Bo

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He thinks higher rates could force stocks down another 20 per cent.It’s pretty wild out there. Just a day after Wall Street ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/cathie-wood-buys-the-dip-ray-dalio-does-the-maths-20220915-p5bi9u\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/cathie-wood-buys-the-dip-ray-dalio-does-the-maths-20220915-p5bi9u","article_id":"2267573541","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2267573541","pubTimestamp":1663211447,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"afr_stock","name":"The Australian Financial Review"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Cathie Wood sees deflation coming, but Ray Dalio has a very different view. He thinks higher rates c","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"afr.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"凯茜·伍德买蘸酱，雷·达里奥做数学","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"Cathie Wood sees deflation coming, but Ray Dalio has a very different view. He thinks higher rates could force stocks down another 20 per cent.It’s pretty wild out there. Just a day after Wall Street plunged 4 per cent on shock US inflation data, the S&P 500 clawed back a little ground, ending a volatile trading session on Wednesday night up 0.34 per cent.But it took one hell of a final push to get back in the green, with an extraordinary flurry of dip buying in the last few hours of the session, with trading volumes about 20 per cent higher than they have been over the last month.One of those buying was Cathie Wood, chief investment officer at Ark Investment Management, which specialises in big bets on big technology.Cathie Wood was buying the dip after Wall Street’s big plunge. David RoweAccording to Bloomberg, Ark went on its biggest single buying binge since February, scooping up 27 stocks across its eight exchange-traded funds.The day before the US inflation numbers were released, Wood tweeted that deflation was in the pipeline and it appears she’s positioning for that, given her biggest purchases on Wednesday night were in tech stocks that have been smashed up in the environment of rising inflation and rising interest rates we’ve seen this year.Video tech firm Roku was Wood’s biggest buy on Wednesday night, and is down about 70 per cent this year. Butterfly Network and Zoom were Ark’s next two biggest purchases, and have fallen 14 per cent and 58 per cent respectively.Of course, Wood is no stranger to big falls herself this year, with the flagship Ark Innovation ETF down more than 50 per cent.Clearly, her deflation call remains a contrarian view. As Wood was buying on Wednesday, the founder of hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, was weighing in on where he thinks inflation is heading.In a LinkedIn post on how inflation works and why it matters, Dalio warned that the market’s long-term view of inflation is likely to be too optimistic.“Right now, the markets are discounting inflation over the next 10 years of 2.6 per cent in the US. My guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent long term, barring shocks (for example, worsening economic wars in Europe and Asia, or more droughts and floods) and significantly higher with shocks.”Following that through, Dalio sees bond yields sitting at between 4.5 per cent and 6 per cent. But because of the US government’s rising debt burden and the need to attract more and more bond buyers to fund government deficits, Dalio believes that “interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5 per cent to 6 per cent range) and a significant fall in private credit that will curtail spending. This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”But this economic contraction is likely to take time. Already, Dalio says, we are seeing that US households and businesses are able to draw on large savings pools to protect themselves, such at “while we are seeing a significant weakening in the interest rate and debt dependent sectors like housing, we are still seeing relatively strong consumption spending and employment.“The upshot is that it looks likely to me that the inflation rate will stay significantly above what people and the Fed want it to be (while the year-over-year inflation rate will fall), that interest rates will go up, that other markets will go down, and that the economy will be weaker than expected, and that is without consideration given to the worsening trends in internal and external conflicts and their effects.”What does higher rates mean for shares? Dalio sees two impacts. First, the discount rate applied to valuations is higher, putting pressure on valuations. But secondly, a slower economy means pressure on earnings.″ I estimate that a rise in rates from where they are to about 4.5 percent will produce about a 20 percent negative impact on equity prices.”Cathie Wood might still have a lot more dip buying opportunities in front of her.Dalio emphasises that his predictions are guesstimates, and despite the latest US inflation number, there are a wide variety of views on the outlook from here. But he does raise a good point about the 10-year view markets are predicting, which essentially calls for a return to the very low inflation we’ve known for much of the past two decades.The market appears to hold two opposing beliefs at once: that high debt levels will mean the Fed can’t take rates as high as they might otherwise need to go to bring inflation back to 2 per cent, and that inflation can, at the same time, still fall to pre-pandemic levels. Dalio is right to ask how likely that really is.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9934604838,"gmtCreate":1663230887424,"gmtModify":1676537232890,"author":{"id":"3586053412837856","authorId":"3586053412837856","name":"Cam20","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037da9ce01a8e834173bfb42cccaa40f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586053412837856","idStr":"3586053412837856"},"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool] [Cool] [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934604838","repostId":2267573541,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":103938139,"gmtCreate":1663233334773,"gmtModify":1663258954040,"authorId":3581921108389483,"author":{"id":3581921108389483,"idStr":"3581921108389483","authorId":3581921108389483,"name":"Squ00","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c532dee28e4fc99a9cc34fb3b9649140","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 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class=\"s1\">Ok</span>"},{"id":103938181,"gmtCreate":1663233505373,"gmtModify":1663258953848,"authorId":3581921108389483,"author":{"id":3581921108389483,"idStr":"3581921108389483","authorId":3581921108389483,"name":"Squ00","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c532dee28e4fc99a9cc34fb3b9649140","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 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class=\"s1\">Ok</span>"},{"id":103938140,"gmtCreate":1663233339769,"gmtModify":1663258953747,"authorId":3581921108389483,"author":{"id":3581921108389483,"idStr":"3581921108389483","authorId":3581921108389483,"name":"Squ00","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c532dee28e4fc99a9cc34fb3b9649140","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 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Likely even guesstimate. Still room for further dip. Hold on","listText":"50% Likely even guesstimate. Still room for further dip. Hold on","text":"50% Likely even guesstimate. Still room for further dip. Hold on","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934815411","repostId":2267573541,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9934897893,"gmtCreate":1663212242812,"gmtModify":1676537229208,"author":{"id":"3582778356971864","authorId":"3582778356971864","name":"NgKenny","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fdae3e0bdca8d3a33e7f9d619f0dc88","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3582778356971864","idStr":"3582778356971864"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934897893","repostId":2267573541,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104284255,"gmtCreate":1665362615537,"gmtModify":1665362618864,"authorId":3583811117795819,"author":{"id":3583811117795819,"idStr":"3583811117795819","authorId":3583811117795819,"name":"snd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/489eabf54a7f41df714f354de59deefd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9934897893,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9934892570,"gmtCreate":1663211914691,"gmtModify":1676537229089,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"htmlText":"Sure Bo","listText":"Sure Bo","text":"Sure Bo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934892570","repostId":2267573541,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":36,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2267573541"}