Netflix and Disney+ Are About to Get Ads. What It Means for Streaming Stocks

Barrons2022-09-17

"We'll be right back after these messages." The age-old commercial lead-in takes on new meaning at a time when a bounceback for Netflix and Walt Disney shares rests on the coming launch of ad-...

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Comments

BennyTay
2022-09-19
BennyTay
👍
ZenInv
2022-09-19
ZenInv
Abandonment
Wil17
2022-09-19
Wil17
Oh
iNkwiziTs
2022-09-18
iNkwiziTs
Let it bouce!
慢的老人
2022-09-18
慢的老人
$Walt Disney(DIS)$making ad money is good since they cannot rely on subscriber growth forever.
JASPERNING
2022-09-18
JASPERNING
👍

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What It Means for Streaming Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-17 10:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-disney-ads-stocks-streaming-wars-51663368286?mod=hp_HERO><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>\"We'll be right back after these messages.\" The age-old commercial lead-in takes on new meaning at a time when a bounceback for Netflix and Walt Disney shares rests on the coming launch of ad-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-disney-ads-stocks-streaming-wars-51663368286?mod=hp_HERO\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"ROKU","symbol_name":"Roku Inc","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-disney-ads-stocks-streaming-wars-51663368286?mod=hp_HERO","article_id":"2268646686","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268646686","pubTimestamp":1663382033,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1601382232898","name":"Barrons"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"\"We'll be right back after these messages.\" The age-old commercial lead-in takes on new meaning at a","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc","WBD":"Warner Bros. Discovery","DIS":"迪士尼","FOX":"福克斯-B","TTD":"Trade Desk Inc.","CMCSA":"康卡斯特","FOXA":"福克斯-A","NFLX":"奈飞"},"translate_title":"Netflix,Inc.和迪士尼+即将获得广告。这对流媒体股票意味着什么","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CMCSA":1,"DIS":1,"FOX":1,"FOXA":1,"NFLX":1,"ROKU":1,"TTD":1,"WBD":1},"content_text":"\"We'll be right back after these messages.\" The age-old commercial lead-in takes on new meaning at a time when a bounceback for Netflix and Walt Disney shares rests on the coming launch of ad-supported tiers for the two streaming leaders.For Netflix (ticker: NFLX), the goal is to reverse subscriber losses with cheaper plans. For Disney+, it's to offset a recent acceleration in cable cord-cutting. Barron's laid out those concerns in a March cover story.Much could go wrong in the near term for these companies and their rivals. A glut of advertising slots could push industry prices lower, especially if the economy weakens. Too many ads per hour could frustrate viewers. Too few could accelerate defections from full-price streaming tiers and cable.Yet, if the television industry is successful, it could not only rekindle growth, but also pull back power that has been lost to the closed-off advertising economies of Google and Facebook.\"Connected television is what will bring down the walls of walled gardens,\" says Jeff Green, founder and CEO of Trade Desk (TTD), which competes with Alphabet as an ad-buying platform and has partnered with Disney in streaming advertising. He means that streaming can match the targeting power of online search and social media while making the emotional connection of video. \"A banner ad has never made you cry,\" he says.Trade Desk is poised to be a winner as more advertising dollars flow to streaming.Microsoft (MSFT), a rising ad player, should benefit, as well. Roku (ROKU) could have better odds than its collapsed stock price suggests. Walt Disney (DIS) and Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD) (WBD) will benefit from rich content engines. Netflix, meanwhile, faces plenty of risk. And across the industry, more consolidation appears inevitable.Advertising already abounds on streaming. What is changing now is the scale. Netflix dominates viewership. Its users took in 1.3 trillion minutes of content during the most recent TV season, roughly from late last September to early May, according to Nielsen data by way of BofA Securities. That's nearly double the attention paid over the same period to CBS, the ratings leader in traditional TV, and five times that of the next-biggest streamer, Disney+.Netflix just moved up the launch of its ad-supported service to November to beat Disney+ on Dec. 8. That means it will want to lock in advertisers by the end of this month. It's expected to start at an \"ad load\" of four minutes per content hour.Jessica Reif Ehrlich, a media analyst at BofA, predicts what she calls silent price hikes in the form of a quick rise in ads for each hour. \"There's no way it's going to stay at three, four, five minutes,\" she says. \"Hopefully it won't be what we see on linear, which is unbearable.\"The TV business is packed with jargon. Here's a quick glossary for investors. Linear means that movies and shows run at scheduled times, and can refer to either old-fashioned broadcast and cable, or to FAST, which stands for free ad-supported streaming television. FAST services skimp on content costs and pack in the ads, but users can't beat the price. Paramount Global(PARA) (PARA) owns the FAST service Pluto TV; Comcast (CMCSA) has Xumo; and Fox (FOX) has Tubi.The better-known streaming services, where users pay subscriptions to start shows when they want, are called SVODs, for subscription video on demand. When the cost is subsidized with ads, like the new Netflix and Disney+ tiers, they're called AVODs. Some FASTs dabble in AVOD, and vice versa, and both services compete for the same ad budgets.That's the taxonomy. Here's the moneymaking: Ad revenue is determined by ad load, audience size, and CPM, or cost per mille, which is Latin for thousand, and refers to the price of reaching that many screens. Ads are sold ahead of time during so-called upfront negotiations in late spring and early summer, and last-minute in what's called the scatter market. TV companies use a carrot-and-stick approach to get early commitments, offering choice spots during upfronts, and warning of higher rates for those who wait for scatter.To sum up the current state of TV advertising, upfronts were solid this year, but scatter has turned choppy. Also, to date, streaming has made most of its advertising inroads in scatter, whereas traditional television still rules the upfronts. That's bound to change.Now for the question that matters most: Where will CPMs come in for Netflix? If they're high, it could provide cover for the entire industry to prosper. If they're low, Netflix will need a hefty ad load in a hurry, and it still might not make up for customers who trade down from full-price subscriptions. The whisper number is that the company is looking for $65. Some on Wall Street are whispering back: \"Good luck.\"Hulu is a veteran at selling streaming ads, and gets CPMs that are estimated in the $20s and low $30s. (Disney owns two-thirds of Hulu and will likely buy the rest from Comcast in 2024.) HBO Max is a top CPM draw, with rates pegged in the $40s. Nat Schindler, BofA's Netflix analyst, who is bearish on the stock, expects CPMs of $20 to $40. In one recent analysis, he calculated that Netflix could need $3.8 billion in yearly advertising revenue to make up for lost subscription fees, and will likely generate less than $1.8 billion to start.Tim Nollen at Macquarie Research predicts that Netflix will secure CPMs of $50 by next year and $60 by 2025. By then, he sees the company bringing in $3.6 billion in U.S. and Canada advertising revenue, and $8.5 billion worldwide, or $2 billion more than the company would bring in without advertising. He recently upgraded the stock to Neutral.Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney upgraded Netflix to Outperform this past week. He sees $1 billion to $2 billion in incremental revenue by 2024 -- and 10 million more subscribers. A recent survey of \"churned\" or departed subscribers leads him to believe that 20% of them could return with a cheaper tier. Just how cheap it will be isn't yet known, but forecasts of $7 to $9 a month are common. The cheapest ad-free Netflix plan costs $9.99 a month, and the most popular one is $15.49. Disney recently priced its ad-supported Disney+ at $7.99 a month -- the same price as the current ad-free service, which will soon move to $10.99.ILLUSTRATION BY BARRON'S STAFF; ALAMY (5); NETFLIX (2); DISNEY+ (2)One factor that could weigh on Netflix's CPMs early on is that the company will offer little viewer information, which might have more to do with its abilities than privacy concerns. A partnership with Microsoft will help, eventually.\"The ink isn't even dry on the agreement,\" says Ratko Vidakovic, founder of AdProfs, an ad-technology consultant. \"It's going to take a while for them to spin up the new advertising infrastructure that's going to allow them to offer more sophisticated ad targeting.\"Traditional television has limited ability to target viewers with precision. The internet has plenty of ability, but it has long relied on technologies like tracking cookies that raise privacy concerns. Apple and Alphabet have cracked down on third-party cookies on their devices and software, and now advertisers are pondering a post-cookie world.Meanwhile, streaming services have direct credit card relationships with customers, giving them valuable insights that could fetch top dollar from advertisers. What is needed is a way for advertisers to tailor their campaigns without Netflix sharing individual customer details or allowing outsiders to track Netflix users to other sites and advertise to them at lower cost.One answer is called a data clean room, or software that allows collaboration without oversharing. Trade Desk is providing a data clean room for Disney. Microsoft, which just bought a programmatic advertising company called Xandr from AT&T, is believed to be doing something similar for Netflix. Microsoft declined to comment.That could eventually make Netflix an advertising powerhouse. But there's plenty of risk for investors between now and then. Free cash flow for the company hasn't quite turned meaningfully and consistently positive. Content costs have soared -- witness the more than $1 billion that Amazon.com is expected to spend on its new series loosely related to the Lord of the Rings books. Studios that once licensed shows cheaply are now hoarding them for their own streaming platforms.Netflix has lost subscribers for two quarters running. The stock has rebounded 28% since the end of June in anticipation of a return to growth, versus 4% for the S&P 500 index. Meanwhile, the U.S. advertising industry turned in its weakest performance in two years in July, with spending falling 12.7% from a year earlier, according to research group Standard Media Index.Without more growth soon, investors could begin second-guessing whether Netflix's projected $4.5 billion in free cash flow in 2025 is worth $97 billion in stock market value today. One wild card: Microsoft is believed to have offered Netflix a minimum revenue guarantee of perhaps $500 million to $1 billion to help win its advertising business.For the legacy players, pay-TV subscriptions have fallen from a peak of more than 100 million in 2015 to about 82 million, and losses have lately been accelerating. But at least the remaining cash flows offer a bridge until streaming pays off. Disney, with a market value of about $205 billion, could top $10 billion in free cash flow in three years. Paramount, valued at $15 billion, is expected to generate at least $1 billion.The cash cow of the group is Warner Bros. Discovery. It's valued at $31 billion and is seen generating nearly $4 billion in free cash this year and well over $9 billion in three years. Peacock owner Comcast earns far more from home cable connections, especially for broadband service, than from show business.There have already been two big streaming deals this year. Discovery completed its purchase of AT&T’s WarnerMedia, and Amazon closed on TV and movie studio MGM. Warner now says it will consolidate its HBO Max and Discovery+ streaming platforms to hold down costs. Paramount is considering the same for Showtime and Paramount+.This past week, activist investor Daniel Loeb backed off his demand that Disney sell ESPN, tweeting about a “better understanding” of its potential. Loeb had argued that ESPN would be worth more to a company that would pursue gambling. Disney CEO Bob Chapek, asked at a recent company event whether ESPN is developing a gambling app, said, “We’re working very hard on that.”Ehrlich at BofA and Nollen at Macquarie both favor Disney and Warner for their mix of must-haves like storied studios, live news, and sports rights. If Disney’s price increase looks like a dare for subscribers to downgrade, there’s a good reason. “Disney will probably make more on their AVOD platform than the SVOD,” says Ehrlich.Nollen is particularly bullish on Trade Desk. “Because they’re neutral, because they’ve got great scale, great relationships, great ability to tie very targeted ads into all of these services, we think they’re going to be one of the winners in this transition,” he says.Alicia Reese, a media analyst at Wedbush, recommends former highflier Roku, whose stock has collapsed by 78% in a year. It has a TV operating system that allows set owners to search for programs across their streaming apps, plus an AVOD called Roku TV. The company was hit by high exposure to the weakened scatter market, says Reese. But the market value is down to $9.4 billion, and the consensus view is that free cash flow will reach $500 million in three to four years.Streaming commercials could prove effective enough to siphon spending to TV from online display ads in the years ahead, says Brett Gordon, who teaches marketing at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management.At Trade Desk, CEO Green is eyeing a global ad budget approaching $1 trillion. “I want as much of that as possible,” he says. And although his buying platform plays in websites, apps, podcasts, and more, he makes no secret of where he thinks the money is headed. “Connected television,” he says, “is quickly becoming the most effective way to advertise on the planet at scale.”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9910993969,"gmtCreate":1663545390451,"gmtModify":1676537285898,"author":{"id":"3578378737544841","authorId":"3578378737544841","name":"BennyTay","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2811d2536960cbba454a3f5f37fe4c5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578378737544841","idStr":"3578378737544841"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910993969","repostId":2268646686,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9910056971,"gmtCreate":1663542883493,"gmtModify":1676537284769,"author":{"id":"4098783902581330","authorId":"4098783902581330","name":"ZenInv","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/033bd47e3df1977aaef462f53997e9f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4098783902581330","idStr":"4098783902581330"},"htmlText":"Abandonment&nbsp;","listText":"Abandonment&nbsp;","text":"Abandonment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910056971","repostId":2268646686,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9910003512,"gmtCreate":1663519952337,"gmtModify":1676537282400,"author":{"id":"3574687898874038","authorId":"3574687898874038","name":"Wil17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cfd41bcd17de187675ea0796762da27","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574687898874038","idStr":"3574687898874038"},"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910003512","repostId":2268646686,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9937787278,"gmtCreate":1663507584994,"gmtModify":1676537280774,"author":{"id":"3569473957254831","authorId":"3569473957254831","name":"iNkwiziTs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfab89f2382be8e231dff17c4383110","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3569473957254831","idStr":"3569473957254831"},"htmlText":"Let it bouce!","listText":"Let it bouce!","text":"Let it bouce!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937787278","repostId":2268646686,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9937461695,"gmtCreate":1663482544718,"gmtModify":1676537277735,"author":{"id":"3582028884093480","authorId":"3582028884093480","name":"慢的老人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8809bb976396889eb133162af0901b8","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3582028884093480","idStr":"3582028884093480"},"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>making ad money is good since they cannot rely on subscriber growth forever.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>making ad money is good since they cannot rely on subscriber growth forever.","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$making ad money is good since they cannot rely on subscriber growth forever.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":-1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937461695","repostId":2268646686,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9937463956,"gmtCreate":1663482225275,"gmtModify":1676537277695,"author":{"id":"3581727706388320","authorId":"3581727706388320","name":"JASPERNING","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3581727706388320","idStr":"3581727706388320"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937463956","repostId":2268646686,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1062,"commentSize":91,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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