欧美熊市跌到何时？关注这些指标

华尔街见闻2022-09-30

分析认为，政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的反转和市场流动性的改善，可以帮助市场判断熊市的转折点。今年以来，在各国央行不惜以经济衰退为代价遏制通胀的坚定决心下，全球股市和债市深陷熊市区间。标普500指数今年迄今下跌24%。当地时间周四，媒体评论员 Simon White 分析指出，有三个指标可以帮助市场判断本轮欧美股市和其他风险资产的熊市何时才能结束：政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的...

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傑恩妈妈
2022-10-01
傑恩妈妈
謝謝🙏
JWZ137
2022-10-01
JWZ137
Wow
Fattkhong
2022-09-30
Fattkhong
[流泪]
- Fattkhong:
  [惊讶]
康康的
2022-09-30
康康的
哦
- 康康的:
  好
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-09-30
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
好
Iris俊
2022-09-30
Iris俊
好

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指出，本轮通胀的根本原因是，疫情爆发之初各国财政刺激背后的巨额赤字。疫情本身和乌克兰冲突并没有引发价格上涨，它们只是加剧了已经恶化的潜在通胀。美联储最近在杰克逊霍尔会议上发表的一篇论文中指出，疫情期间的大规模财政干预导致了美国财政信誉的丧失。欧美国家的通胀趋势取决于财政当局在稳住大规模财政失衡方面的可信度。尽管货币政策对抗通胀有一定的作用，但已经不是决定性的。当财政当局被认为无法扭转现有的财政失衡时，市场会押注其将允许通胀上升以确保国债的可持续性。若严重的财政失衡再叠加财政信誉减弱，将导致通胀趋势偏离央行的长期通胀目标。当通胀由财政主导时（财政刺激诱发通胀，同时通胀也使债务稀释），若再叠加上货币紧缩，很可能就将通胀变为一种“财政滞胀”。这类财政滞胀，源于巨额债务下的财政信誉逐渐恶化，以及市场认识到央行的补救措施不足以抵消财政当局的预期行为。当投资者不相信巨额财政失衡将恢复稳定时，当局的工作将变得极其困难。只有当公共债务能通过可信的财政计划成功稳住时，货币当局才能掌控通胀。因此，结束熊市的第一个条件就是政府财政信誉的恢复。收益率曲线倒挂的逆转White 认为，第二个条件是实际收益率曲线的倒挂趋势出现反转。目前，长期和短期美债收益率出现持续深度倒挂：由于美联储退出宽松政策，备受关注的2年期和10年期美债收益率差在上月扩大至-58个基点，为1982年以来的最大跌幅。在上世纪70年代，尽管美国利率大幅上升，但国债收益率曲线一直在变陡。美联储既没有意愿也没有实际行动，持续大幅加息以遏制通胀。当时美联储的信誉受到了一定损害。1980年初，美联储因经济放缓而过早降息，但后来终于做出了正确的决定，在1981-1982年的衰退期间继续大举加息，利率水平达到了20%。由于对利率更为敏感，短期收益率比长期收益率以更快的速度上涨，实际收益率曲线在1980年开始严重趋平，并在1981年4月出现倒挂，后来在1982年8月才开始出现持续多年的反弹。市场认为，当经济衰退来临时，美联储会放松政策，而这种押注会使得较长期的债券收益率迅速上升，逆转收益率倒挂趋势；如果市场预期美联储将持续把利率推高到足以引发衰退的程度，收益率曲线的倒挂程度就会进一步加深。流动性的改善White 表示，熊市结束的最终条件就是股市流动性的改善。流动性是股市最重要的中期驱动因素之一。1981年实际收益率曲线倒挂时，流动性仍处于恶化阶段；但到1982年初，流动性的增长已经大大改善并在持续上升。1982年2月，股市流动性出现改善，吸引投资者纷纷涌入。标普500指数虽然短期下跌10%-12%，但之后几乎不停上涨，涨幅达到了220%。White 总结道，但在美国财政信誉减弱、实际收益率曲线倒挂并且仍在加深、流动性条件非常不利的情况下，本轮熊市可能出现进一步下跌。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9916609302,"gmtCreate":1664581867306,"gmtModify":1676537478991,"author":{"id":"3570101505863876","authorId":"3570101505863876","name":"傑恩妈妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ff722d86cf846b324eff3eda6730a1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570101505863876","authorIdStr":"3570101505863876"},"htmlText":"謝謝🙏","listText":"謝謝🙏","text":"謝謝🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916609302","repostId":2271724057,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9916849797,"gmtCreate":1664579396720,"gmtModify":1676537478313,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575067142498671","authorIdStr":"3575067142498671"},"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916849797","repostId":2271724057,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9916893410,"gmtCreate":1664549981430,"gmtModify":1676537476010,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916893410","repostId":2271724057,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104162600,"gmtCreate":1664549993823,"gmtModify":1664549997396,"authorId":3576924513004067,"author":{"id":3576924513004067,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorId":3576924513004067,"name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9916893410,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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