鹰派立场不动摇！美联储今年票委称即使衰退也不能阻止加息

华尔街见闻2022-09-30

今年FOMC投票委员梅斯特认为，美联储的政策利率甚至还没有进入限制性区间，预计经济增长会远低于趋势水平，但遏制通胀有必要如此。另一今年票委布拉德称，点阵图显示美联储预期今年还会有相当幅度的加息行动，市场消化了这点。两名今年拥有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的联储官员不约而同重申鹰派立场，再次表示要为遏制高通胀继续加息，强化了继续紧缩货币的呼声。美东时间29日周四，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德说，...

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Bel8680
2022-10-01
Bel8680
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建稳的朋友
2022-09-30
建稳的朋友
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The Fed's voting committee this year said that even a recession can't stop raising interest rates","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62390d480a3062f4a28c794ef14a62c2","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"今年FOMC投票委员梅斯特认为，美联储的政策利率甚至还没有进入限制性区间，预计经济增长会远低于趋势水平，但遏制通胀有必要如此。另一今年票委布拉德称，点阵图显示美联储预期今年还会有相当幅度的加息行动，市场消化了这点。两名今年拥有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的联储官员不约而同重申鹰派立场，再次表示要为遏制高通胀继续加息，强化了继续紧缩货币的呼声。美东时间29日周四，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德说，只要看一下代表美联储官员对未来利率预期的点阵图就能发现，FOMC预计今年还会有相当幅度的加息行动。“我认为，市场消化了这点，这看来确实是正确的解读”。布拉德提到英国大规模减税引发的金融市场巨震，明确表示这些动荡不会令美联储叫停收紧货币。布拉德说，为了给通胀施加有实质意义的下行压力，美联储决心让政策利率回到适合的水平。他说：“你们在英国看到的波动主要和金融市场需要对此定价有关，我们在美国有些波动正是因此而来。我认为，这实际上并未影响美国的通胀或者实际的增长变化。”同在周三，克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特表示，由未来一年通胀预期判定的实际利率必须进入正值区域，而且在那个水平持续一段时间。“我们甚至还没有让（联邦）基金利率（即美联储的政策利率）进入限制性区间。”上周美联储会议决定连续第三次加息75个基点，会后公布的经济展望显示，美联储决策者的加息预期比市场预测更加鹰派：联储官员的预期中位值为，今年底利率达到4.5%，明年达到本轮加息周期的利率高峰4.6%，这一峰值高于市场预期的4.5%，都远超上周加息后利率区间3%-3.25%。而且，会后公布的点阵图显示，多数美联储官员预计，上周加息后，到今年底还需要合计加息125个基点。这一预测让联储下次11月会议再加息75个基点的可能性摆上台面。梅斯特本周三称，她个人的预期可能比联储官员的预期中位值略高，因为她觉得通胀在持久处于高位，必须升高利率，让通胀出现下行转向，而且，美国经济迄今为止还能应对加息。被问及衰退会不会促使她停止加息时，梅斯特回答，不会，并解释说：“我们不得不做自己必须做的，去恢复价格稳定，因为除非恢复价格稳定，否则我们不会有健康的经济，不会有一段时间内良好的劳动力市场。”梅斯特说，如果看一看上周美联储公布的经济展望会发现，在经济增长方面，预示有衰退，因为预期中位值的路径很低。她个人的预期是增长会相当低，“实际经济增长将远低于趋势水平”，远低于2%的增速。这会是痛苦的，失业会增加，但为了避免之后付出更高代价，那是有必要的。对于英国市场的表现，梅斯特认为和美国截然不同。她指出，两年前新冠疫情初期，美联储宣布购债，当时联储还在通过降息支持经济。英国央行现在既要加息又要购债，面临一些沟通的问题。梅斯特认为，出于金融稳定和市场正常发挥功能的原因，英央行不得不购债。如果市场功能失常，央行就无法达到货币政策的目标，这和担心市场波动是不同的。到目前为止，还没有美国金融市场功能失调的迹象。布拉德和梅斯特讲话前一天，鸽派美联储官员、明年有FOMC会议投票权的亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克亮出支持继续激进加息的态度，称他的基准预测是11月加75个基点、12月再加50个基点，都取决于未来数据。不过，博斯蒂克重提他今年5月末表达过的暂停加息论，称为避免过度紧缩，应在通胀降至目标2%前停手。华尔街见闻注意到，上周三美联储会后，市场对联储11月加息75个基点的预期几率曾升至80%以上。本周三英国央行宣布紧急购债后，市场对欧美央行激进加息的预期明显降温。到本周四美股盘中，芝商所（CME）的“美联储观察工具”显示，美国联邦基金利率期货交易市场预计，11月美联储加息75个基点的几率接近59%，加息50个基点的几率约为41%，一周前预计加息75基点的几率超过70%、预计加息50基点的几率约为28%。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9916853094,"gmtCreate":1664577729019,"gmtModify":1676537478022,"author":{"id":"4118053585072712","authorId":"4118053585072712","name":"Bel8680","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/38c74e39f044d2ed2064c911f006c8ac","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84859c65fc2d7681e28f6b8e9b0535a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4118053585072712","authorIdStr":"4118053585072712"},"htmlText":"[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;","listText":"[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;","text":"[LOL] [LOL] [LOL] [LOL] [LOL]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916853094","repostId":2271747527,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9916931187,"gmtCreate":1664496133049,"gmtModify":1676537464879,"author":{"id":"3577698344691010","authorId":"3577698344691010","name":"建稳的朋友","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b8ad9f42089df9a8f1e1ffbab818a5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577698344691010","authorIdStr":"3577698344691010"},"htmlText":"🙏🙏","listText":"🙏🙏","text":"🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916931187","repostId":2271747527,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2271747527"}