债王格罗斯：美联储难以更大力加息，美债收益率或已见顶在即

华尔街见闻2022-10-07

在美联储能继续激进加息路线吗？在“债王”格罗斯看来，美联储当前的政策立场是不可持续的。10月6日周四，格罗斯指出，美联储无法继续依靠不断加息来控制通胀，因为美国经济现在的杠杆率比上世纪80年代要高得多，而且全球经济正在放缓。格罗斯称，当前美国经济的高杠杆和全球经济放缓的宏观环境，意味着2年期美国国债收益率太高，利率全线已经达到“临时”峰值。他表示，虽然通胀是美联储目前明面上唯一的关注焦点，但...

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Amy99
2022-10-07
Amy99
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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671836><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在美联储能继续激进加息路线吗？\n在“债王”格罗斯看来，美联储当前的政策立场是不可持续的。10月6日周四，格罗斯指出，美联储无法继续依靠不断加息来控制通胀，因为美国经济现在的杠杆率比上世纪80年代要高得多，而且全球经济正在放缓。\n格罗斯称，当前美国经济的高杠杆和全球经济放缓的宏观环境，意味着2年期美国国债收益率太高，利率全线已经达到“临时”峰值。他表示，虽然通胀是美联储目前明面上唯一的关注焦点，但...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671836\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"PSQ","symbol_name":"纳指反向ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671836","article_id":"2273314573","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/b77d8302-2361-413d-805e-f8373b0877ee.jpg?imageView2/1/w/340/h/340"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671836","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273314573","pubTimestamp":1665099838,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"格罗斯认为，令美联储等央行政策工具受限的罪魁祸首是不断上升的杠杆率，美国和其他经济体无法承受更多的加息。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 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soon","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"在美联储能继续激进加息路线吗？\n在“债王”格罗斯看来，美联储当前的政策立场是不可持续的。10月6日周四，格罗斯指出，美联储无法继续依靠不断加息来控制通胀，因为美国经济现在的杠杆率比上世纪80年代要高得多，而且全球经济正在放缓。\n格罗斯称，当前美国经济的高杠杆和全球经济放缓的宏观环境，意味着2年期美国国债收益率太高，利率全线已经达到“临时”峰值。他表示，虽然通胀是美联储目前明面上唯一的关注焦点，但经济增长和金融稳定可能很快就会获得美联储的同等关注。\n他进一步称，令美联储等央行政策工具受限的罪魁祸首是不断上升的杠杆率，美国和其他经济体无法承受更多的加息。\n10月6日，美国两年期国债收益率高达4.256%；十年期国债收益率达3.828%。而在2020年中，美国两年期国债收益率一度低于0.2%，十年期国债收益率一度不足0.7%。\n\n\n在新冠疫情爆发后，由于美国处于超低利率状态，美国政府、非金融部门和居民大量举债，杠杆率大幅攀升，美国政府杠杆率超过110%，而非金融部门和居民也利用低利率来借贷。\n和格罗斯持类似观点的还有亿万富翁、传奇投资者Stanley Druckenmiller。他在上个月底曾表示：\n\n我们担忧的核心是，2023年美国经济将硬着陆。如果这件事儿没发生，我会感到震惊。我不知道硬着陆发生的具体时间，但是肯定是明年年底之前，而且不是普通的经济危机。我不排除真的很糟糕的事情会发生。\n\nDruckenmiller认为，过去十年非同寻常的量化宽松和超低利率造成了资产泡沫：\n\n所有导致牛市的因素，它们不仅在停止，而且正在逆转。我们陷入了大麻烦。\n风险提示及免责条款\n\n            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