美股迎强劲四季度开局，真要熊转牛了？

第一财经2022-10-05

投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？市场押注美联储将“松口”美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线...

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JWZ137
2022-10-06
JWZ137
Wow
Fattkhong
2022-10-05
Fattkhong
[惊讶]
- 小闸蟹:
  [惊讶][惊讶][惊讶]
- Paulyang:
  赞一个
- Fattkhong:
  [惊讶]

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Reid）表示，虽然股市肯定已达到超卖状态，但“对央行可能很快转向更温和立场的猜测越来越多”也有助于提振市场情绪。根据芝商所CME利率观察工具FedWatch，预计年内剩余两次会议加息125基点的概率为60%，高于上周的47%，同时本轮加息周期终点有望在明年3月出现，利率终值预期回落至4.43%。RBC Capital Markets首席美国经济学家波切利（Tom Porcelli）表示：“投资者关注的是，在市场面临诸多压力的情况下，美联储是否会坚持所有这些关于掩盖通胀的言论。毫无疑问，美联储希望控制通胀。”他分析道：“更大的问题是，在通货膨胀恢复到他们满意的水平之前，其他因素是否会影响他们的计划？”历史数据也显示，10月开始的四季度往往是美股“转折点”。Stock Trader’s Almanac 的数据显示，二战后美股熊市中有超过70%在10月结束。此外，2022年也是美国中期选举年，今年选举将于11月8日举行。统计发现，中期选举年的10月表现尤为出色。同时，中期选举年的第四季度与大选年前第一和第二季度，是市场连续三个季度表现最好的季度。这期间，道琼斯工业指数平均涨幅为19.3%，标准普尔500指数涨幅为20.0%（自1949年以来），纳斯达克指数为29.3%（自1971年以来）。财富管理公司Stifel首席股票策略师班尼斯特（Barry Bannister）预计，标准普尔500指数正在触底，市场在今年第四季度至2023年初之间将出现积极的催化剂。反弹持续性有待观察虽然股指上涨带来了乐观情绪，但也有不少机构认为，消极的经济基本面可能压倒季节性趋势。Ameriprise Financial首席市场策略师萨林迪恩（Anthony Saglindene）表示，在历史上的某些时期，10月份可能会引发华尔街的恐慌，包括1987年和1929年的两场动荡。 “我认为，如果股市经历了非常困难的一年，季节性因素都应该予以折中，因为还有其他一些宏观因素在影响市场，你需要更清楚地了解那些推低股市的宏观因素。”他说。富国银行也发出警告称，随着对美国潜在衰退的警告不断增加，有关美联储转向可能性的传言再次出现，这表明投资者有可能“再次低估美联储在寻求解决通胀问题时的决心”。摩根士丹利首席股票策略师威尔逊（Mike Wilson）本周继续预警美股跌势将持续到年底，部分原因是全球主要经济体的美元供应减少，即使短期出现反弹，接下来股票、债券、大宗商品和货币的波动性可能会继续上升。威尔逊表示，问题在于，随着利率持续上升，美联储不断缩减其资产负债表，它可能会在世界某些地方，甚至在美国引发危机。这是因为更高的利率使公司和家庭借贷成本更高，从而拖累美国经济，而美元走强则使新兴经济体更难偿还以美元计价的债务。威尔逊认为，流动性问题已经开始浮出水面。“美元对风险市场的走向非常重要，这就是为什么我们如此密切地跟踪M2的增长， 美国、欧元区和日本等主要经济体的M2在2021达到峰值，此后下降了4万亿美元。跟踪这些经济体的货币供应变化率很重要，因为这往往与股市走势密切相关。截至目前，美联储并未释放有关货币政策力度调整的信号，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席布雷纳德在内的多位官员均在近期讲话中表示，不会冒险提前降息，因为担心通胀可能变得更加根深蒂固。威尔逊表示，无论如何，在美联储最终转向之前，股市可能会走低，不过对这一政策变化的预期可能足以引发股市大幅但短暂的反弹。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9915852643,"gmtCreate":1665014643483,"gmtModify":1676537543461,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915852643","repostId":2273971138,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9915363395,"gmtCreate":1664960316517,"gmtModify":1676537536139,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915363395","repostId":2273971138,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104233626,"gmtCreate":1665015331483,"gmtModify":1665015334952,"authorId":3562806601771624,"author":{"id":3562806601771624,"authorId":3562806601771624,"name":"小闸蟹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1545e896ea8561c2436876b4d538c8a4","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary 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