The Stock Market’s Rebound Fizzled Again. Why a Real Bottom Could Form Soon

Barron's2022-10-15

Investors seemingly can’t stop trying to pick a stock market bottom, no matter how bad the news—and it continues to backfire. The day for a real bounce, however, may be coming soon.Consider: This past...

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Comments

MIe
2022-10-16
MIe
bear rally volatile bottom up soon
Tchwee56
2022-10-15
Tchwee56
Like
Simonnov
2022-10-15
Simonnov
Ic
PBL77
2022-10-15
PBL77
Ok
- Tchwee56:
  Like
crtyn
2022-10-15
crtyn
Ok
DarkFate
2022-10-15
DarkFate
Like
- Wafu:
  Ok

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Why a Real Bottom Could Form Soon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-15 06:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp500-51665789304?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors seemingly can’t stop trying to pick a stock market bottom, no matter how bad the news—and it continues to backfire. 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The Dow Jones Industrial Average,thanks to some solid earnings from Walgreens Boots Alliance (ticker: WBA), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), and JPMorgan Chase(JPM), finished the week up 1.2%.Still, for the first time in a while, it feels like there’s hope. Part of that is simply the market starting to acknowledge the fact that the Federal Reserve will do what it said it would do—crank rates up as high as they need to go to tame inflation. There’s now more than a 70% chance the Fed raises rates over 4.5% by December, which would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.But the market is starting to act the way it does at lows. Take Thursday’s massive turnaround. The S&P 500 fell 2.4% before finishing up 2.6%, a five-point swing. That’s happened just nine other times since 1983, according to Bespoke Investment Group data. The wild swings often continued—the S&P 500 was down 3.5% on average over the following three months, but up an average of 14.6% over the next 12 months. “We’re not sure when or where the ultimate bottom in stocks will end up, but violent moves like yesterday tend to occur closer to lows than highs,” the folks at Bespoke explain.Other measures are starting to send similar messages. On Friday, noted Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at the Leuthold Group, the firm’s Very Long Term Momentum indicator, or VLT, reached an oversold level for the first time since 2016. It’s not a buy signal yet—that happens when the indicator turns up—but it does mean one “is now mathematically possible,” Ramsey writes. “Patience is advised. But this long-term oversold condition should help investors pull the trigger when the time comes.”It’s also easy to forget that the S&P 500 has already dropped 25% this year, a level that’s approaching the losses in an average recession, in which the market drops 30% to 40%, observes Rick Bookstaber, head of risk at Fabric. That means investors could rightly expect more losses, but a good portion of the index’s losses are likely behind it. “If you look at historical cases of bad market events and recessions, we’re more than halfway there in terms of the pain that the market has had,” he says.Indeed, it might even be time to start nibbling on individual stocks. Morgan Stanley portfolio manager Andrew Slimmon notes that while the market has dropped 25%, the average stock has fallen far more. 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