市场押注美联储本周“放鸽”，美股有望借势延续反弹

智通财经网2022-10-31

几个月以来，投资者一直在急切地等待美联储激进的加息政策何时能够转向温和。但现在，至少对于一些押注美联储长期维持鹰派政策的交易员来说，这一转向有可能来得太早了。智通财经APP了解到，MLIV Pulse的最新调查显示，如果美联储主席鲍威尔在本周的新闻发布会上释放出任何“鸽派”信号，他都有可能会让部分投资者瞬间惊慌失措。市场加大力度押注美联储放缓加息步伐在上一周接受调查的250名受访者中，近一半比例...

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Comments

hhyw
2022-11-01
hhyw
好
Yoongc
2022-10-31
Yoongc
ok
- Yoongc:
  ok
康康的
2022-10-31
康康的
好
Fattkhong
2022-10-31
Fattkhong
[惊讶]
- 康康的:
  好
- Fattkhong:
  [惊讶]

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受访者为专业投资者与散户市场普遍预计美联储将在11月2日加息75个基点，以对抗持续的通胀环境，这一点市场基本上彻底定价。然而，过于激进的紧缩行动可能将美国推入经济衰退，导致美国国债出现有记录以来最严重的年度跌幅，而股市有可能出现2008年以来的最大跌幅。因此，本周市场关注的重点不是加息幅度——加息75个基点可谓“板上钉钉”事件，而是美联储主席鲍威尔对于货币政策前景发表的言论。可以肯定的是，市场对美联储释放鸽派信号的预期不断升温，这也是上周标普500指数大幅反弹的重要原因。目前，市场对于美联储12月加息50个基点的押注力度已超过75个基点。芝商所FedWatch工具显示，当前市场预计，市场对于美联储利率峰值区间以及见顶时间的预期均有所降温。峰值区间由此前的5%-5.25%降至4.75%-5%，利率见顶的时间由此前的5月提前至3月。在接受调查的受访者中，许多群体在美联储会议前既没有购买短期国债，也没有购买长期国债。但有超过60%的受访者认为一个月后彭博美元现货指数会走高。这表明，如果出现加息放缓的强烈信号，货币和固定收益市场可能会发生重大反应。鲍威尔本周若意外“放鸽”，美股有望继续反弹来自MAPsignals的首席投资策略师Alec  Young在接受采访时表示:“这些数据确实证明，美联储有可能暂停行动。”市场希望如此，如果我们真的实现了，市场就会反弹，因为仍然有很多人对他们持怀疑态度。”美联储同行最近的举动表明，并非不可能出现温和的意外。加拿大央行和澳大利亚联储近期上调基准利率的幅度均低于经济学家和交易员的普遍预期。投资者也认为欧洲央行未来的政策步伐可能没有那么激进。一些交易员已经看到了足够多的迹象，试图提前软化美联储的鹰派论调。10月份的美元指数即将出现5月以来的首次月度下跌，尽管一些科技巨头的业绩令人失望，但标普500指数已从本月早些时候的阶段性低点(10月13日标普500指数触及3491)反弹约10%。Wealth Enhancement Group高级副总裁兼金融顾问Nicole  Webb在接受采访时表示:“如果美联储释放出在12月有可能加息50个基点的信号，市场将出现缓解性反弹。”来自高盛股票业务部门的Matt  Fleury表示：“如果鲍威尔本周‘放鸽’，并且没有表现出杰克逊霍尔会议上那样的强势态度，从技术面的角度来看，几乎没有什么可以阻止这一反弹——运动的物体继续保持运动状态。但如果鲍威尔表达出对于维持鹰派货币政策的支持态度，这将是一个绝佳的做空机会。”Ellen  Zentner领导的摩根士丹利经济学家曾表示，鲍威尔等FOMC成员将在12月保留所有的选择权。虽然一些数据显示经济进一步疲弱，但通胀仍处于历史高位。由于受到过去教训的困扰，又因应对价格压力的行动太迟而受到指责，美联储主席鲍威尔一直不愿寄希望于市场的通胀预期放缓，因此也就没有理由放松政策。信贷市场违约预期上行，美联储不得不调整政策?值得注意的是，有54%的受访者表示，随着借贷成本上升以及随之而来的经济低迷侵蚀企业利润，信贷市场的困境和违约率上升正成为投资者日益担心的问题。企业债务的压力超过了对美国国债流动性紧张的担忧，不过，在经历了一年的债券价格大幅下跌后，美国国债市场的流动性紧张已接近2020年危机的水平，引发了人们对市场运转的担忧。你最担心什么?——调查结果显示多数投资者担忧信贷市场违约杠杆收购融资的搁置、发行量暴跌和收益率飙升，最近引发了人们对企业债券功能失调的担忧。随着更多裂缝的出现，亚洲市场突然回到了人们的关注焦点，违约的前景看起来非常严峻。对于信贷市场——长期以来被视为预示经济衰退的金丝雀，日益增长的担忧，只会不断增加投资者对美联储调整政策的预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9982761290,"gmtCreate":1667259494610,"gmtModify":1676537885316,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982761290","repostId":2279808891,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9982433426,"gmtCreate":1667226885265,"gmtModify":1676537880986,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982433426","repostId":2279808891,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104597424,"gmtCreate":1667226891095,"gmtModify":1667226904662,"authorId":3581927941435634,"author":{"id":3581927941435634,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorId":3581927941435634,"name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9982433426,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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