以史为鉴！中期选举之季，美股将涨6%？

智通财经2022-11-07

美国股市的近期命运取决于美国中期选举，而70多年来中期选举一直是美股一大利好。然而目前不断上升的利率、不断加剧的衰退风险以及40年来最严重的通货膨胀，可能会导致目前形势与过去历史趋势的偏离。不过，从历史上看，第四季度和中期选举后的一年一直是四年总统周期中股市表现最强劲的时期。民调显示，民主党可能会失去对美国参众两院的控制权，股市可能会从另一个传统上有利的因素得到进一步提振：一个分裂的美国政府几乎会...

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Comments

Angry_Cat
2022-11-07
Angry_Cat
?
zh2021
2022-11-07
zh2021
[微笑]
- zh2021:
  [微笑]
是龙不是虫
2022-11-07
是龙不是虫
K
- 是龙不是虫:
  K
霹雳倍倍22
2022-11-07
霹雳倍倍22
如果GOP拿下兩院就厲害了能看到上漲20%+ vote the red.$蘋果(AAPL)$$Twitter(TWTR)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$英偉達(NVDA)$$亞馬遜(AMZN)$
Ysw16888
2022-11-07
Ysw16888
啊

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US stocks will rise by 6% in the mid-term election season?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd5faa067d69360270c206bce227c28","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"美国股市的近期命运取决于美国中期选举，而70多年来中期选举一直是美股一大利好。然而目前不断上升的利率、不断加剧的衰退风险以及40年来最严重的通货膨胀，可能会导致目前形势与过去历史趋势的偏离。不过，从历史上看，第四季度和中期选举后的一年一直是四年总统周期中股市表现最强劲的时期。民调显示，民主党可能会失去对美国参众两院的控制权，股市可能会从另一个传统上有利的因素得到进一步提振：一个分裂的美国政府几乎会扼杀任何可能改变经济前景的重大立法。Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官Kim Forrest表示：“美国政府分裂是件好事，政府什么事都做不成，未来两年也不会再有不确定性。当企业了解竞争环境时，它们就能运营，如果共和党人在民主党总统期间控制国会，那将给美国企业带来一些确定性。”在美国中期选举的推动下，股市出现一段时间的上涨将受到投资者的欢迎。今年，美联储数十年来最激进的货币紧缩政策已导致标普500指数下跌21%，令投资者遭受重创。即使失去对美国国会任何一个议院的控制，也会削弱民主党在经济放缓时制定财政措施刺激经济的能力，这将消除美联储主席鲍威尔进一步加息以抑制通胀的一个潜在理由。美国10月份CPI数据将于周四公布，届时投资者将获得另一个有关物价上涨的关键数据，这也将有助于窥探美联储未来几个月的加息步伐。Optiver估计，期权定价显示，如果共和党获胜，标普500指数最多将上涨0.7%;如果民主党继续控制了国会，标普500指数将下跌3.3%。但可以肯定的是，选举结果可能不会立即明朗，特别是如果候选人拒绝承认选举结果或煽动对选举结果的质疑。投票后发生暴力或抗议的风险可能会扰乱民众的情绪。从更长时间来看，美国股市正处于美国总统周期接下来16个季度中最看涨的时期，这让看涨股市的人感到欣慰。Carson Investment Research的数据显示，从历史上看，中期选举年的第四季度和之后的两个季度最为强劲，自1950年以来标普500指数在上述季度的平均涨幅分别为6.6%、7.4%和4.8%。然而，今年的前景因美联储可能加息而变得复杂。上周，鲍威尔打破了外界对美联储调整政策的预期，称美联储加息仍有\"一段路要走\"，其关键政策利率的峰值可能高于预期。SoFi投资策略主管Liz Young表示:“中期季节性因素这次不会持续下去，因为市场仍然没有意识到利率需要在更长时间内维持在高位的事实。一些投资者混淆了美联储的暂停加息与美联储政策转向的关系。转向将意味着美联储正在彻底改变方向。但目前不是。避免衰退的机会非常低，所以美联储很可能在2023年暂停加息，因为他们需要看到他们已经采取的措施对经济的影响。但暂停加息并不意味着暂停后，他们肯定会调低利率。他们可能会暂停加息，然后再次加息，尤其是在通胀居高不下的情况下。”以史为鉴，美联储暂停加息很可能将发生在美股的强势时期。Bespoke Investment Group汇编的数据显示，自二战以来，美国总统选举周期的第三年(明年)是最强劲的一年，标普500指数平均上涨了14%。标普500指数在选举周期的第二年里有57%的时间出现上涨，在第三年83%的时间出现上涨。另一个美股强劲的先例是:标普500指数过去几乎没有在中期选举后出现过任何下跌。根据All Star Charts投资策略师Willie Delwiche对1950年以来数据的分析，平均而言，该指数在中期选举后的一个月、三个月、半年和一整年都走高。中期选举一年后，标普500指数平均上涨了15%。在Delwiche看来，逻辑是这样的:当权的政客想要连任，所以他们开始在大选前制定更宽松的政策。但这一次，接下来会发生什么几乎不确定，对通胀的不满可能会改变典型的政治剧本。Delwiche称：“这个周期的不同之处在于，到目前为止我们还没有看到更多的刺激政策，反而情况相反。这个周期不是对即将发生的事情的预期，而是对已经发生的事情的反应。如果共和党在中期选举中获胜，政策可能会更加有利于市场，这可能会支撑标普指数。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":664190311,"gmtCreate":1667832919334,"gmtModify":1676537971312,"author":{"id":"3584506394780329","authorId":"3584506394780329","name":"Angry_Cat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e3f170374bf4577968228d5631e101","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584506394780329","authorIdStr":"3584506394780329"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/664190311","repostId":2281443627,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9987314726,"gmtCreate":1667822437965,"gmtModify":1676537969210,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987314726","repostId":2281443627,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104697866,"gmtCreate":1667822445593,"gmtModify":1667822458466,"authorId":3574387078391491,"author":{"id":3574387078391491,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorId":3574387078391491,"name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9987314726,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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&nbsp;能看到上漲20%+ &nbsp; vote the red.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英偉達(NVDA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亞馬遜(AMZN)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"如果GOP拿下兩院就厲害了 &nbsp;能看到上漲20%+ &nbsp; vote the red.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英偉達(NVDA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亞馬遜(AMZN)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"如果GOP拿下兩院就厲害了 能看到上漲20%+ vote the red.$蘋果(AAPL)$$Twitter(TWTR)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$英偉達(NVDA)$$亞馬遜(AMZN)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/664330996","repostId":2281443627,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9987948537,"gmtCreate":1667802090230,"gmtModify":1676537965878,"author":{"id":"3564911897267160","authorId":"3564911897267160","name":"Ysw16888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1423ff0b5d25f0f11370c91853168cc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564911897267160","authorIdStr":"3564911897267160"},"htmlText":"啊","listText":"啊","text":"啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987948537","repostId":2281443627,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":38,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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