CPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot

Seekingalpha2022-11-27

The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big ...

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Comments

tigernaut
2022-11-28
tigernaut
👍
AlanChong
2022-11-28
AlanChong
Ok
- Torres87:
  ok
Vincentan59
2022-11-28
Vincentan59
👍
- Vincentan59:
  All Buddy Good luck 😃😃😃
TaiWoeiHaur
2022-11-28
TaiWoeiHaur
Good morning
- XYSAYSYO:
  Hi
Zivcheah
2022-11-28
Zivcheah
O
- Zivcheah:
  O
Goupppppppp
2022-11-28
Goupppppppp
Good

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This blog previewed the earnings report on Seeking Alpha here.If readers quickly peruse the earnings preview, it was noted that Walmart was suffering from “retail constipation” as inventory growth had far exceeded sales growth and for a company that runs like a Swiss watch, this was a rare occurrence indeed.However, as the following spreadsheet shows, Walmart has vastly improved its revenue growth vs. inventory growth, although it's still not yet in line with historical standards:Readers need to click on the above spreadsheet to see the relationship between revenue and inventory growth YoY and note how during COVID in 2020, inventory fell sharply and then – perhaps – a much stronger reopening was expected, which drove an inventory build.And now in the late stages of 2022, particularly the last quarter, Walmart is finally getting the relationship back to normal, although it’s still not quite there yet, since ideally, revenue growth should exceed inventory growth YoY, for at least 3 of the 4 quarters every year.What’s important for readers to understand is that this relationship impacts working capital and thus cash flow from operations, so just this one metric – particularly for a retailer – can have a dramatic influence on profitability and cash flow.Walmart’s typical “inventory turnover” is usually between 2.0x and 2.5x looking back to 2018, but it’s now at under 2.0x, with the last 3 quarters coming in around 1.8x as the retail giant tries to push the inventory bowling ball through the snake.Average ticket vs. traffic at Walmart:If you ever want some insight into a retail business look at “average ticket vs. traffic”: Walmart being the giant that it is, look how the two are used in tandem, both through the pandemic and then after it.My guess is Walmart will do everything it can to reduce that “average ticket” over time. It’s a struggle now since the conference call notes said that Walmart is guiding to a consumer that might might slow spending in Q4 ’23 (ends Jan ’23) “given persistent inflationary pressure in food and consumables”, however that is probably a conservative guide for the giant retailer given its history.Amazon: This table shows the identical measurement that Walmart contains but it’s not apples-to-apples since Amazon Web Services, Subscriptions and Advertising revenue segments are now 31% of Amazon’s total revenue as of 9/30/22. It’s unknown to me how subscriptions and advertising impact “inventory” which would distort the inventory numbers so to speak.What’s clear is that Amazon is still 69% online, physical stores and 3rd party resellers, and you would think that the advantage to the 3rd party re-sellers for Amazon is that it would allow Amazon to not have to use their balance sheet to stock inventory. (That’s an assumption on my part.)The point being that the last quarter where Amazon’s revenue growth exceeded inventory growth was the June ’21 quarter right around the time the stock peaked at $188 per share.Coincidence or Correlation? You tell me what you think.Still as Amazon’s ecommerce division rights itself after expanding too rapidly, revenue consisting of 69-70% of $502 billion in total revenue, there should be ample opportunity to obtain supplier concessions in the Amazon marketplace.Costco:TTM revenue for Costco as of the August ’22 quarter, was $226 bl.Costco never suffered the “traffic” decline that Walmart and Home Depot have incurred, thus their quarterly comps, which averaged roughly 5-6% in calendar 2019, have averaged 13% since calendar 2020 or the earliest days since the pandemic began.The problem with including Costco in an analysis with Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot, is that COST is a warehouse club and “inventory” is different than the typical retailer: my understanding is that inventory is taken in as a consignment rather than owned directly.COST is probably better compared to Sam’s Club directly than Walmart itself, (with Sam’s Club being a division of Walmart) but with $226 billion in TTM sales, I thought it was worth a look from a market power perspective.In Costco’s 10-Q, the various product lines are broken out and the revenue detailed and for COST, “Foods & Sundries” and “Fresh Foods” are roughly 50% of COST’s total revenue.(I’m guessing – and please note that – COST is probably considerably smaller than Walmart's pure grocery or “fresh foods” segment. COST’s Q shows that “fresh foods” is just 13% of total revenue as of the last quarter.(Note too that the next COST earnings report is December 8th and thus readers will get another look at food and grocery inflation as of November ’22 quarter-end, before the next CPI report.)Home Depot:Although it’s not considered a “general merchandise retailer”, Home Depot was thrown into the mix given its annual revenue growth and housing’s importance to the CPI, i.e. owners' equivalent rent, and such are a 30% weight in the CPI basket.This above spreadsheet shows that Home Depot like Walmart is relying on “ticket” vs. traffic to make it through both the post-Covid supply chain issues and the housing slowdown.What I worry about regarding Home Depot is that if you look at “cash flow vs. net income” you could make a case for the Home Depot business model being under some stress.This table compares Home Depot’s cash flow and free cash flow vs. net income and readers can see that as far back as 2017, the relationship looked normal but with the recent slowdown in housing, there is no question Home Depot is feeling the pressure, although part of it could be supply chain issues as well.Is this a reason to sell Home Depot’s stock – probably not – but it speaks to how the quality of a company’s earnings are impacted when the model is placed under stress.Summary/conclusion: The total dollar value of US GDP at the end of 2021 was $23 trillion, and the four companies listed above represent about $1.5 trillion, or about 6.5% of that $23 trillion as of the latest quarter, using the “trailing-twelve-month” (TTM) revenue metric.Walmart is America’s largest private sector employer employing 2.2 to 2.3 million, while Amazon is still a ways away from overtaking Walmart in that metric, but now employs 1.5 million Americans as of 9/30/22, up from 1.1 million as of September 2020.Here’s how the trailing twelve-month revenue falls out by company as of the latest quarter reported:Walmart: $600 billionAmazon: $502 billionCostco: $227 billionHome Depot: $157 billionTotal: $1,486 trillionThe Wall Street Journal article made the point about Walmart’s and Amazon’s importance to consumer inflation, although many including David Faber of CNBC have done media specials on Walmart’s treatment of suppliers, etc. some of which are not always “fair and balanced” (and I’m not speaking of Faber’s special, which I thought was balanced).But it’s at times like this that you can appreciate that as supply disruptions and the pandemic influences fade, Walmart has the ability to squeeze consumer inflation out of the pipeline. (Having never modeled Target, it wasn’t included in the above analysis.)In Michael Porter’s legendary “Competitive Strategy” book, one of the competitive tenets in industry sparring matches is “power over suppliers”, thus Walmart could be said to have two of the basic principles, i.e. low-cost leader and power over suppliers, although Amazon has unquestionably closed the gap on Walmart and has become a formidable competitor since early this century.Looking at Walmart’s “average” revenue growth since the mid ’90s here’s what I found:’20 to ’22: averaged 3% revenue growth’10 to ’19: averaged 2% revenue growth’00 to ’09: averaged 11% revenue growth’96 to ’99: averaged 14% revenue growthWhat happened to Walmart’s revenue growth, if the same “compare” were run for Amazon, Amazon (and probably Costco too) would likely be the mirror image of these bullet points, which is probably a surprise to no one.Walmart’s enormous competitive advantage today is that at least half their revenue – which was $600 billion TTM as of the last earnings report – is grocery, the holy grail of retail since it’s low cost and it drives foot traffic.Walmart has to be the largest grocer in the world, or at the very least America, although I heard one CNBC guest around Walmart’s last earnings report say that he thought grocery was now 70% of Walmart’s total revenue. (That was a surprise.)When Jeff Bezos stepped down as Amazon CEO, he said he was going to take on the “physical store” aspect of Amazon’s revenue base, which is the Whole Foods acquisition, thus while the big opportunity for Amazon is still “grocery” that has to be a very long uphill battle for the ecommerce giant given Walmart’s dominance. Not being a sell-side analyst it would seem that Costco and Kroger (KR) represent larger competitive threats to Walmart today than Amazon.Agreeing in principle with the Wall Street Journal article, I hope this article provided a little more “analytical flavor” in terms of the numbers (and this article was probably too technical for easy reading), since these 4 retailers represent 6.5% of what was 2021 total GDP of $23 trillion.Typically and historically per what’s been read, once inflation starts to roll over, it tends to continue to fall, so as Walmart and Amazon work through their bloated inventory and supply chain issues, expect more pressure on inflation, and in Walmart’s case especially food inflation.Take everything you read here as one opinion, and with a substantial grain of salt. Hopefully, readers found the content 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morning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966533229","repostId":2286418053,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104975016,"gmtCreate":1669591976894,"gmtModify":1669591990393,"authorId":3570709468812342,"author":{"id":3570709468812342,"authorId":3570709468812342,"name":"XYSAYSYO","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9966533229,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">Hi</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">Hi</span>","html":"<span 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