Now Is The Time To Buy Google

Seeking Alpha2022-12-02

SummaryGoogle's stock went through a brutal 48% decline during the bear market phase.However, Google's stock staged an excellent 25% rebound from the bottom and is now a strong buy on future pullbacks...

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Comments

Tanyl
2022-12-04
Tanyl
Yes, price is cheap
tig2021
2022-12-04
tig2021
Ok
MIe
2022-12-04
MIe
Googl upside
- tig2021:
  ok
Tanyl
2022-12-02
Tanyl
Do buy call on Google
Tanyl
2022-12-02
Tanyl
Must invest Google now
Bluem
2022-12-02
Bluem
Loll

Leave a comment

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The company's stock has gone through an epic decline, equating to roughly 48% from peak to trough. However, the stock has staged an excellent 25% comeback, likely marking a long-term bottom around the $80 support level.Google 2-Year ChartGOOG (StockCharts.com)Google's stock hit a blowoff top in early February, and it's been downhill ever since. Recently, the stock cascaded toward $80, hitting its lowest point in more than two years. However, we saw a massive rebound off the lows, and with the stock above $100, the bottom should be in. Google's downside is likely limited now, especially relative to the stock's long-term prospects. The company has solid earnings potential and highly resilient revenue growth opportunities. Moreover, Google's valuation has been knocked down, and the company is finally cheap now. As the transitory slowdown phase passes, Google's revenue growth should stabilize and improve substantially, leading to significantly higher profitability and a much higher stock price.Google - The King of All SearchMobile Search Engine Market Share WorldwideSearch mobile share (gs.statcounter.com)Google has an overwhelming, dominant 96.4% market share in the lucrative global search market. If we look at \"all platforms,\" Google controls around a 92.4% global market share in search.Google Distribution by RevenuesGoogle revenues (Statista.com)Google's ad revenues still account for the lion's share of the company's revenues, roughly 80%. Last quarter's total revenues came in at $69.1 billion, approximately a 6% YoY increase. Despite the transitory slowdown effect, we see that Google is still effectively growing revenues.Revenue BreakdownGoogle revenues (abc.xyz)Despite the challenging macroeconomic atmosphere, we're seeing growth in Google's core ad business. This phenomenon is encouraging and implies that growth should accelerate once the transitory slowdown passes. Moreover, we see robust growth in Google's expanding Cloud business. Cloud revenues increased by around 38% YoY. Google's developing cloud business should continue strong double-digit growth for several years, benefiting the company's future earnings potential.Top Three Cloud Players GloballyCloud share (Statista.com)Google is third in the cloud, behind only AWS and Azure services. However, that does not mean that there isn't enormous market share and growth potential for Google here. On the contrary, Google cloud has every opportunity to gain ground and increase market share in the lucrative global cloud market. Google's cloud revenues should be around $25 billion this year and could double to approximately $50 billion by 2025. While ad revenues are in a temporary slowdown, Google Ads should bounce back and return to healthy double-digit growth in the coming years.Finally, Google is CheapRevenue EstimatesRevenue estimates (seekingalpha.com)Google is trading under five-time sales and around three times 2025 expected revenues. Also, sales estimates have been adjusted lower over the last year, possibly underestimating Google's revenue growth potential. We see consensus estimates for around 10-12% growth, but Google may achieve 12-15% revenue growth in the coming years.EPS EstimatesEPS estimates (seekingalpha.com)EPS estimates have also been adjusted meaningfully lower in recent quarters. Google could earn about $5 in EPS this year and $6-$7 in 2023. This dynamic places Google's P/E ratio at just 20, with a potential forward P/E ratio of only 15 now. Google has unrivaled dominance in the search ad space and should continue expanding its influence, leading to substantially higher revenues in future years.Additionally, Google Cloud should continue growing, adding to future revenue growth and increasing profitability. Google's stock likely hit a long-term bottom around the $80 level and is a strong buy on any pullbacks below $100. Moreover, Alphabet's shares will likely advance considerably in the coming years.What Google's financials could look like in future years:Year2022202320242025202620272028Revenue Bs$285$325$360$400$450$505$570Revenue growth11%14%11%12%13%12%12%EPS$5$6.50$7.80$9.30$11.10$13.30$16Forward P/E15171920222120Stock price$100$133$177$222$293$336$400Source: The Financial ProphetGoogle's revenue growth is not slowing drastically and should improve as the transitory slowdown dissipates. Therefore, Google could essentially double its revenues by 2027-2028. As macro conditions stabilize, Google should also return to more robust profitability. 15-20% EPS growth should enable EPS to rise to approximately $20 by 2030. We're also not likely going to see a 15-20 forward P/E ratio for long in Google. The company's P/E multiple should expand, possibly reaching the 20-25 range in future years. This dynamic should enable Google's stock price to rise substantially as the company advances. My conservative 2028 price target range for Alphabet is $400-$500.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9964236548,"gmtCreate":1670154902385,"gmtModify":1676538311092,"author":{"id":"4087109808120260","authorId":"4087109808120260","name":"Tanyl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174329973340cf0f5b68791ee5b08afd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4087109808120260","idStr":"4087109808120260"},"htmlText":"Yes, price is cheap","listText":"Yes, price is cheap","text":"Yes, price is 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