Buyers Shouldn't Underestimate Powell At These Levels

Seeking Alpha2022-12-09

SummaryThe market has likely priced in a 50 bps hike for next week's FOMC meeting. However, as the market parses the Fed's revised dot plot, it's also configured for a pullback.Investors need to be ...

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

heyuok
2022-12-09
heyuok
Thx
Bodoh
2022-12-09
Bodoh
Regardless of Powell, real world problems will take time to be solved: inflation, high interest mortgages, high business costs
tplian
2022-12-09
tplian
Ok
Zarkness
2022-12-09
Zarkness
Huh 🤔
ramius75
2022-12-09
ramius75
😱
- Zarkness:
  Haa
Vincentan59
2022-12-09
Vincentan59
Sound fantastic , Hope it works 😽😽😽

Leave a comment

189

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However, as the market parses the Fed's revised dot plot, it's also configured for a pullback.Investors need to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562992-buyers-shouldnt-underestimate-powell-at-these-levels\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buyers Shouldn't Underestimate Powell At These Levels</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuyers Shouldn't Underestimate Powell At These Levels\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-09 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562992-buyers-shouldnt-underestimate-powell-at-these-levels><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe market has likely priced in a 50 bps hike for next week's FOMC meeting. However, as the market parses the Fed's revised dot plot, it's also configured for a pullback.Investors need to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562992-buyers-shouldnt-underestimate-powell-at-these-levels\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562992-buyers-shouldnt-underestimate-powell-at-these-levels","article_id":"2289465883","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289465883","pubTimestamp":1670554539,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryThe market has likely priced in a 50 bps hike for next week's FOMC meeting. However, as the m","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"买家不应该低估鲍威尔在这些水平","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"SummaryThe market has likely priced in a 50 bps hike for next week's FOMC meeting. However, as the market parses the Fed's revised dot plot, it's also configured for a pullback.Investors need to be cautious as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have rallied into critical resistance zones. We also gleaned that the S&P 500's valuation is well-balanced at best.Wall Street analysts seem to remain optimistic that the market could escape a deeper recession. However, they have also been over-optimistic based on earnings estimates over the past 25 years.We highlight why investors need to be patient for the market to determine the directional bias from here.The Market Is Cautious Heading Into The FOMC's Decision WeekThe market heads into the Fed's blackout period before its highly anticipated December FOMC meeting pressor on December 14, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell updates the committee's median terminal rate and its revised dot plot moving ahead.With November's CPI reading preceding Powell's press conference on December 13, the FOMC will have an excellent opportunity to look into November's inflation reading. As such, the market's buying momentum has stalled decisively as the market awaits the Fed's rate decision, as the recent recovery has likely already priced in a 50 bps hike in December.Despite that, Fed watchers reflect an outside chance of a 75 bps hike (23% probability as of November 6). As such, there remains a slim possibility of a post-CPI rally if the inflation readings are discernibly lower than anticipated.November's CPI Print Could Still Be A Significant HurdleHowever, the Cleveland Fed's most updated forecasts suggest that the upcoming inflation print (including core) could remain stubbornly high.Notably, it predicts a CPI print of 7.40% YoY, with core inflation (less food and energy) rising by 6.26%. Therefore, the forecasts suggest a lower print than October's headline figure of 7.7%.However, core inflation is expected to remain sticky, in line with October's 6.3% metric. As such, we assess that investors need to be realistic about a Fed pivot in H1'23, even as it could be heading into a data dependency phase in 2023. We believe a critical factor to watch is how the 5Y breakeven inflation could trend from here.5Y Breakeven inflation rate chart (weekly) (TradingView)Our analysis of the current 5Y breakeven inflation rate suggests it has been making higher lows since September. However, the general trend since its March highs remains firmly in the downtrend, although the market doesn't expect the inflation rate to fall below 2% over the next five years.Hence, we believe the market is cautiously positioned into next week's pivotal releases, which could shape the market's near-term directional bias.Moreover, we believe the underlying market indicators have been pointing to a pullback over the past two weeks. Hence, the market seems ready to force a steeper selloff as it awaits the CPI reading and the Fed's decision.Market Likely Priced In A 50 Bps HikeWhile we don't think investors should short-sell the S&P 500 (SP500) (SPX), we urge investors to be cautious about adding at the current levels. The Dow Jones (DJI) has also rallied into a bull trap, which doesn't augur well for its near-term buying upside. The NASDAQ (NDX) continues to lag behind the SPX and the DJI as investors poured into less expensive value stocks at the market's October lows.However, we remain constructive over those lows. The risks of a recession in 2023 have been well-established and likely anticipated by the market. Edward Yardeni also highlighted in a recent commentary:If the economy is in for a hard landing next year, it would be the most widely anticipated recession ever. The Philly Fed's survey of forecasters, the WSJ's survey of economists, and even the Misery Index that reflects the sum of unemployment and inflation rates point to a recession. … But we think this time is different. There's been no broad-based credit crunch, liquidity is ample, consumer incomes are growing, multi-family housing remains strong, capital spending does too, and fiscal stimulus has been gushing. Real GDP shouldn't contract in such an environment but grow, slowly but surely. We're in the soft-landing camp. - Yardeni Research November 29 briefingStill, investors should not ignore the significant risks of the Fed remaining in the restrictive zone for longer than expected, which could result in a significant recession.The Fed's James Bullard, a voting member on the 2022 FOMC, also suggested that investors shouldn't understate the Fed's hawkish stance. He reiterated his stance (before the blackout period) that \"the Fed needs to at least reach the bottom of the 5% to 7% range to meet policymakers' goal of being restrictive enough to stamp out inflation near a four-decade high.\"Earnings Estimates Going Back UpIndustry analysts have started to revise their earnings estimates for the S&P 500 upward for 2023, seeing a more constructive environment in H2'23. Accordingly, the revised forward estimates suggest that the SPX last traded at an NTM P/E of 17.1x.Relative to the SPX's 10Y average of 17.7x, we postulate that its valuation is relatively well-balanced but with near-term risks skewed to the downside at the current levels.Despite that, we gleaned that analysts have already downgraded their earnings estimates for the SPX through November, aligning with the weaker operating performances in Q3 and relatively weak guidance for Q4.Still, FactSet data from 1997 to 2021 suggests that analysts overestimated SPX's earnings projections by an average of 2% (excluding outlier years). Hence, we believe investors must apply an appropriate margin of safety in their modeling.Therefore, we believe it's appropriate for investors to be cautious at these levels as they wait for a resolution from the pivotal data points next week, given the remarkable recovery from October lows.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9929918750,"gmtCreate":1670582618171,"gmtModify":1676538398740,"author":{"id":"4097065430024300","authorId":"4097065430024300","name":"heyuok","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d4213acea70865e9aab52095a54781c2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Thx","listText":"Thx","text":"Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929918750","repostId":2289465883,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2289465883","pubTimestamp":1670554539,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2289465883?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-09 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buyers Shouldn't Underestimate Powell At These Levels","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289465883","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe market has likely priced in a 50 bps hike for next week's FOMC meeting. However, as the m","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>The market has likely priced in a 50 bps hike for next week&#39;s FOMC meeting. However, as the market parses the Fed&#39;s revised dot plot, it&#39;s also configured for a pullback.</li><li>Investors need to be cautious as the Dow Jones and S&amp;P 500 have rallied into critical resistance zones. We also gleaned that the S&amp;P 500&#39;s valuation is well-balanced at best.</li><li>Wall Street analysts seem to remain optimistic that the market could escape a deeper recession. However, they have also been over-optimistic based on earnings estimates over the past 25 years.</li><li>We highlight why investors need to be patient for the market to determine the directional bias from here.</li></ul><h2>The Market Is Cautious Heading Into The FOMC&#39;s Decision Week</h2><p>The market heads into the Fed&#39;s blackout period before its highly anticipated December FOMC meeting pressor on December 14, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell updates the committee&#39;s median terminal rate and its revised dot plot moving ahead.</p><p>With November&#39;s CPI reading preceding Powell&#39;s press conference on December 13, the FOMC will have an excellent opportunity to look into November&#39;s inflation reading. As such, the market&#39;s buying momentum has stalled decisively as the market awaits the Fed&#39;s rate decision, as the recent recovery has likely already priced in a 50 bps hike in December.</p><p>Despite that, Fed watchers reflect an outside chance of a 75 bps hike (23% probability as of November 6). As such, there remains a slim possibility of a post-CPI rally if the inflation readings are discernibly lower than anticipated.</p><h2>November&#39;s CPI Print Could Still Be A Significant Hurdle</h2><p>However, the Cleveland Fed&#39;s most updated forecasts suggest that the upcoming inflation print (including core) could remain stubbornly high.</p><p>Notably, it predicts a CPI print of 7.40% YoY, with core inflation (less food and energy) rising by 6.26%. Therefore, the forecasts suggest a lower print than October&#39;s headline figure of 7.7%.</p><p>However, core inflation is expected to remain sticky, in line with October&#39;s 6.3% metric. As such, we assess that investors need to be realistic about a Fed pivot in H1&#39;23, even as it could be heading into a data dependency phase in 2023. We believe a critical factor to watch is how the 5Y breakeven inflation could trend from here.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f0484f953730315c50d9609897f4a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>5Y Breakeven inflation rate chart (weekly) (TradingView)</p><p>Our analysis of the current 5Y breakeven inflation rate suggests it has been making higher lows since September. However, the general trend since its March highs remains firmly in the downtrend, although the market doesn&#39;t expect the inflation rate to fall below 2% over the next five years.</p><p>Hence, we believe the market is cautiously positioned into next week&#39;s pivotal releases, which could shape the market&#39;s near-term directional bias.</p><p>Moreover, we believe the underlying market indicators have been pointing to a pullback over the past two weeks. Hence, the market seems ready to force a steeper selloff as it awaits the CPI reading and the Fed&#39;s decision.</p><h2>Market Likely Priced In A 50 Bps Hike</h2><p>While we don&#39;t think investors should short-sell the S&amp;P 500 (SP500) (SPX), we urge investors to be cautious about adding at the current levels. The Dow Jones (DJI) has also rallied into a bull trap, which doesn&#39;t augur well for its near-term buying upside. The NASDAQ (NDX) continues to lag behind the SPX and the DJI as investors poured into less expensive value stocks at the market&#39;s October lows.</p><p>However, we remain constructive over those lows. The risks of a recession in 2023 have been well-established and likely anticipated by the market. Edward Yardeni also highlighted in a recent commentary:</p><blockquote>If the economy is in for a hard landing next year, it would be the most widely anticipated recession ever. The Philly Fed&#39;s survey of forecasters, the WSJ&#39;s survey of economists, and even the Misery Index that reflects the sum of unemployment and inflation rates point to a recession. … But we think this time is different. There&#39;s been no broad-based credit crunch, liquidity is ample, consumer incomes are growing, multi-family housing remains strong, capital spending does too, and fiscal stimulus has been gushing. Real GDP shouldn&#39;t contract in such an environment but grow, slowly but surely. We&#39;re in the soft-landing camp. - Yardeni Research November 29 briefing</blockquote><p>Still, investors should not ignore the significant risks of the Fed remaining in the restrictive zone for longer than expected, which could result in a significant recession.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s James Bullard, a voting member on the 2022 FOMC, also suggested that investors shouldn&#39;t understate the Fed&#39;s hawkish stance. He reiterated his stance (before the blackout period) that &#34;the Fed needs to at least reach the bottom of the 5% to 7% range to meet policymakers&#39; goal of being restrictive enough to stamp out inflation near a four-decade high.&#34;</p><h2>Earnings Estimates Going Back Up</h2><p>Industry analysts have started to revise their earnings estimates for the S&amp;P 500 upward for 2023, seeing a more constructive environment in H2&#39;23. Accordingly, the revised forward estimates suggest that the SPX last traded at an NTM P/E of 17.1x.</p><p>Relative to the SPX&#39;s 10Y average of 17.7x, we postulate that its valuation is relatively well-balanced but with near-term risks skewed to the downside at the current levels.</p><p>Despite that, we gleaned that analysts have already downgraded their earnings estimates for the SPX through November, aligning with the weaker operating performances in Q3 and relatively weak guidance for Q4.</p><p>Still, FactSet data from 1997 to 2021 suggests that analysts overestimated SPX&#39;s earnings projections by an average of 2% (excluding outlier years). Hence, we believe investors must apply an appropriate margin of safety in their modeling.</p><p>Therefore, we believe it&#39;s appropriate for investors to be cautious at these levels as they wait for a resolution from the pivotal data points next week, given the remarkable recovery from October lows.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buyers Shouldn't Underestimate Powell At These Levels</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuyers Shouldn't Underestimate Powell At These Levels\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-09 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562992-buyers-shouldnt-underestimate-powell-at-these-levels><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe market has likely priced in a 50 bps hike for next week's FOMC meeting. However, as the market parses the Fed's revised dot plot, it's also configured for a pullback.Investors need to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562992-buyers-shouldnt-underestimate-powell-at-these-levels\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562992-buyers-shouldnt-underestimate-powell-at-these-levels","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2289465883","content_text":"SummaryThe market has likely priced in a 50 bps hike for next week's FOMC meeting. However, as the market parses the Fed's revised dot plot, it's also configured for a pullback.Investors need to be cautious as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have rallied into critical resistance zones. We also gleaned that the S&P 500's valuation is well-balanced at best.Wall Street analysts seem to remain optimistic that the market could escape a deeper recession. However, they have also been over-optimistic based on earnings estimates over the past 25 years.We highlight why investors need to be patient for the market to determine the directional bias from here.The Market Is Cautious Heading Into The FOMC's Decision WeekThe market heads into the Fed's blackout period before its highly anticipated December FOMC meeting pressor on December 14, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell updates the committee's median terminal rate and its revised dot plot moving ahead.With November's CPI reading preceding Powell's press conference on December 13, the FOMC will have an excellent opportunity to look into November's inflation reading. As such, the market's buying momentum has stalled decisively as the market awaits the Fed's rate decision, as the recent recovery has likely already priced in a 50 bps hike in December.Despite that, Fed watchers reflect an outside chance of a 75 bps hike (23% probability as of November 6). As such, there remains a slim possibility of a post-CPI rally if the inflation readings are discernibly lower than anticipated.November's CPI Print Could Still Be A Significant HurdleHowever, the Cleveland Fed's most updated forecasts suggest that the upcoming inflation print (including core) could remain stubbornly high.Notably, it predicts a CPI print of 7.40% YoY, with core inflation (less food and energy) rising by 6.26%. Therefore, the forecasts suggest a lower print than October's headline figure of 7.7%.However, core inflation is expected to remain sticky, in line with October's 6.3% metric. As such, we assess that investors need to be realistic about a Fed pivot in H1'23, even as it could be heading into a data dependency phase in 2023. We believe a critical factor to watch is how the 5Y breakeven inflation could trend from here.5Y Breakeven inflation rate chart (weekly) (TradingView)Our analysis of the current 5Y breakeven inflation rate suggests it has been making higher lows since September. However, the general trend since its March highs remains firmly in the downtrend, although the market doesn't expect the inflation rate to fall below 2% over the next five years.Hence, we believe the market is cautiously positioned into next week's pivotal releases, which could shape the market's near-term directional bias.Moreover, we believe the underlying market indicators have been pointing to a pullback over the past two weeks. Hence, the market seems ready to force a steeper selloff as it awaits the CPI reading and the Fed's decision.Market Likely Priced In A 50 Bps HikeWhile we don't think investors should short-sell the S&P 500 (SP500) (SPX), we urge investors to be cautious about adding at the current levels. The Dow Jones (DJI) has also rallied into a bull trap, which doesn't augur well for its near-term buying upside. The NASDAQ (NDX) continues to lag behind the SPX and the DJI as investors poured into less expensive value stocks at the market's October lows.However, we remain constructive over those lows. The risks of a recession in 2023 have been well-established and likely anticipated by the market. Edward Yardeni also highlighted in a recent commentary:If the economy is in for a hard landing next year, it would be the most widely anticipated recession ever. The Philly Fed's survey of forecasters, the WSJ's survey of economists, and even the Misery Index that reflects the sum of unemployment and inflation rates point to a recession. … But we think this time is different. There's been no broad-based credit crunch, liquidity is ample, consumer incomes are growing, multi-family housing remains strong, capital spending does too, and fiscal stimulus has been gushing. Real GDP shouldn't contract in such an environment but grow, slowly but surely. We're in the soft-landing camp. - Yardeni Research November 29 briefingStill, investors should not ignore the significant risks of the Fed remaining in the restrictive zone for longer than expected, which could result in a significant recession.The Fed's James Bullard, a voting member on the 2022 FOMC, also suggested that investors shouldn't understate the Fed's hawkish stance. He reiterated his stance (before the blackout period) that \"the Fed needs to at least reach the bottom of the 5% to 7% range to meet policymakers' goal of being restrictive enough to stamp out inflation near a four-decade high.\"Earnings Estimates Going Back UpIndustry analysts have started to revise their earnings estimates for the S&P 500 upward for 2023, seeing a more constructive environment in H2'23. Accordingly, the revised forward estimates suggest that the SPX last traded at an NTM P/E of 17.1x.Relative to the SPX's 10Y average of 17.7x, we postulate that its valuation is relatively well-balanced but with near-term risks skewed to the downside at the current levels.Despite that, we gleaned that analysts have already downgraded their earnings estimates for the SPX through November, aligning with the weaker operating performances in Q3 and relatively weak guidance for Q4.Still, FactSet data from 1997 to 2021 suggests that analysts overestimated SPX's earnings projections by an average of 2% (excluding outlier years). Hence, we believe investors must apply an appropriate margin of safety in their modeling.Therefore, we believe it's appropriate for investors to be cautious at these levels as they wait for a resolution from the pivotal data points next week, given the remarkable recovery from October lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9929046789,"gmtCreate":1670571728642,"gmtModify":1676538396472,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Regardless of Powell, real world problems will take time to be solved: inflation, high interest mortgages, high business costs","listText":"Regardless of Powell, real world problems will take time to be solved: inflation, high interest mortgages, high business costs","text":"Regardless of Powell, real world 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