美联储12月加息前最重磅数据将至，美国11月CPI下周揭晓，华尔街怎么看？

华尔街见闻2022-12-09

瑞银认为，11月总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，不会出现今年3月和7月那样的次月反弹。巴克莱认为，能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩。美国11月CPI 定于12月13日下周二公布。它公布的次日，美联储就将宣布12月货币政策会议的决议。11月CPI由此成为美联储制定决策前最后发布的重磅通胀数据，也无疑是下周将公布的最重要美国经济数据，是可能左右联储近期决策...

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Fattkhong
2022-12-09
Fattkhong
[惊讶]
- Fattkhong:
  [惊讶]
mengni9981
2022-12-09
mengni9981
希望分析得準
Paggie
2022-12-09
Paggie
閱

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定于12月13日下周二公布。它公布的次日，美联储就将宣布12月货币政策会议的决议。11月CPI由此成为美联储制定决策前最后发布的重磅通胀数据，也无疑是下周将公布的最重要美国经济数据，是可能左右联储近期决策的重磅数据。在10月美国CPI增长超预期放缓后，11月还会延续这样的势头吗？两家华尔街机构公布了有关CPI的详细前瞻。瑞银：总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，未来核心通胀月环比增速将逐步下降瑞银预计，11月CPI将确认增长放缓。由于汽油价格更为疲软，11月总体CPI价格的增长将比前两个月更慢，季节性调整后，11月总体CPI将环比增长0.26%，为去年初通胀开始高涨以来第三低的月环比增速，低于9月的增速0.39%和10月的0.44%。瑞银预计，11月CPI同比增长7.3%，较10月的增速放缓0.5个百分点，三个月内下降1个百分点，远离6月的巅峰水平9.1%。对于剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI，瑞银预计，11月将环比增长0.31%，大致和10月增速0.27%一致。11月食品的价格增速料将为0.88%，略快于10月的0.6%。瑞银预计，11月核心CPI将同比增长6.1%，较10月增速回落0.2个百分点，较9月的巅峰水平6.6%回落0.5个百分点。瑞银认为，11月核心CPI将确认10月数据体现的增长放缓。不同于今年3月和7月通胀放缓后次月就反弹的情况，瑞银并未发现高频和先行的指标暗示11月会较10月有所回升。也就是说，核心CPI通胀的组成价格之中，只有很少一部分11月的增长比10月强劲，比如机票、服装、家用物品。二手车价格料将再次稳步下滑，房租上涨将很强劲，但仍远低于9月的巅峰增速。展望明年1月公布的12月美国CPI，瑞银预计总体CPI的增速将小幅放缓，因为汽油价格将继续稳步下跌。核心CPI的情况复杂，因为上周五的非农就业报告显示，薪资的强劲增长可能支持任何房租以外的核心服务类通胀上行，而房租与核心商品的指标仍体现下行趋势，比如全球货运成本继续下降、供应商配送时间减少、跌入减速区间。巴克莱：能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩巴克莱预计，11月总体CPI将环比增长0.2%，同比增长7.2%；11月食品通胀的环比增速将略微放缓至0.6%，11月能源价格环比下降1.7%，最近四个月内第三个月下跌，是总体CPI放缓的推手。巴克莱还预计，11月核心CPI环比增长0.3%，同比增长6.0%，其中核心服务通胀环比增长0.42%、同比增长6.8%；核心商品仍将是温和通缩，料将环比下降0.16%，较10月创近二十年来第三大通缩幅度的环比降幅0.38%缓和。巴克莱认为，核心服务通胀仍强劲，只是增长在放缓，并不是增长缓慢，它再次得到住房通胀强劲的支持。不计新冠疫情初期在内，0.42%将是2005年初以来核心服务通胀的最高月环比增速。巴克莱还认为，要留意未来CPI数据中剔除住房的核心服务通胀，因为美联储主席鲍威尔上周在讲话中特别提到，剔除住房的核心服务，称它“可能是理解未来核心通胀演变的最重要类别”。它还提到了和劳动力市场密切相关的住房以外服务业，称“因为薪资组成了提供这些服务的最大一类成本，劳动力市场掌握着理解该类别通胀的钥匙”。核心商品方面，巴克莱认为，11月将继续通缩的趋势来自一大推手，即全球供应链的压力普遍且迅速地缓和，目前的供应链压力只是略为超过新冠疫情前水平。而且，零售商的库存目前大部分重建，处于接近疫情前趋势的水平，这应该会继续帮助平衡能源和食品以外的商品供需。巴克莱还发现，多个分项类别将推动核心商品下行，比如价格已连跌四个月的二手车。中期预测方面，巴克莱的CPI预期相比之前变化很小，但会继续体现美国国内通胀道路的不确定性很高。其预计，今年12月的总体CPI将同比增长6.5%，2023年、即明年12月的同比增速将放缓至2.7%，到2024年12月进一步降至2.3%。总体CPI今年同比增长8.0%、明年增4.3%，2024年增2.4%。明年的总体通胀疲软部分源于届时能源价格下跌。巴克莱预计，今年12月核心CPI同比增速从9月的巅峰6.7%放缓至5.8%，到明年12月，同比增速降至2.9%，到2024年12月，进一步放缓至2.4%。巴克莱预计，今年、明年和2024年的核心服务通胀分别同比增长6.9%、4.2%和3.2%，其中住房通胀的同比增速料将在明年上半年达到顶峰，明年多数时间超过6%，到2024年末，回落到接近3%。对于核心商品，巴克莱预计明年上半年都会处于温和通缩阶段，今年、明年和2024年的核心商品同比增速将分别为2.8%、0.4%和0.3%。这一预测是基于假定全球供应链放缓将持续，并最终在明年底以前回到接近历史正常水平，而且明年二季度将开始出现温和衰退，影响商品的需求。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9929984034,"gmtCreate":1670586265128,"gmtModify":1676538399187,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929984034","repostId":2290473739,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105137581,"gmtCreate":1670586274686,"gmtModify":1670586288079,"authorId":3576924513004067,"author":{"id":3576924513004067,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorId":3576924513004067,"name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9929984034,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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