美股今年还会有“圣诞行情”吗？纽交所交易员：恐难如期而至

第一财经2022-12-16

多位纽交所交易员对第一财经记者表示，并不期待今年“圣诞行情”会如期而至。除疫情特殊时期，每年圣诞节前夕，纽约证券交易所都会邀请装扮成圣诞老人的工作人员来到交易大堂敲响闭市钟，收盘后，圣诞老人会与驻场交易员合影留言，庆祝节日的到来。造访华尔街的，除了圣诞老人，通常还有“圣诞行情”。从历史上看，每年圣诞节之后的七个交易日，即年末五个交易日以及次年首两个交易日，投资者倾向于做多，美股大概率上涨，这七日...

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Paggie
2022-12-17
Paggie
閱
嘞撸虎7
2022-12-16
嘞撸虎7
閱
Ysw16888
2022-12-16
Ysw16888
A
Mingzu
2022-12-16
Mingzu
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- Mingzu:
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Cattlin）在发送给第一财经记者的邮件当中解释称：“一方面是出于年末税务、过节奖金使用等因素的考虑，另一常见的解释是机构投资者休假离场，散户接棒成为市场主力，后者一般更为乐观。而最靠谱的答案可能是自证预言（self-fulfilling prophecy），即人们相信圣诞反弹将会发生并据此买入股票，从而推动市场上涨。”今年会有“圣诞行情”吗？今年投资者能否在年末迎接“圣诞行情”呢？利弗莫尔交易集团（Livermore Trading Group）首席交易员罗韦（Gregory Rowe）告诉第一财经记者：“通胀高企，利率抬升，经济放缓，市场仍然存在许多逆风因素，并不支持圣诞反弹，即便股市出现上涨，涨幅也十分有限。”他还表示，上述因素将继续困扰美股，故看淡明年一季度走势。美联储年内已经累计加息七次合共425个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间上调至4.25%～4.50%。安德森也表示，盈利放缓打击投资者信心，“一些特定行业和企业的利润将最受打击，即那些在过去10～12年低利率环境的最大受益者”。金融数据公司FactSet最新报告显示，分析师在过去数月接连下调2023财年企业盈利展望，目前预测标普500指数成份股下一财年的盈利增速为5.5%，低于6月时的预测值9.6%和9月时的预测值8.2%，也低于2012～2021年期间的平均值8.5%。分析师认为，大部分收益增长将出现在2023年下半年，预计明年一、二季度的企业盈利较今年仅同比增长1.1%和0.6%；不过预计到三、四季度，企业盈利分别同比增长6.4%和10.4%。板块方面，非必需消费品将以35.8%的盈利增速领跑，工业、金融板块也将取得不俗表现，而能源、材料板块将录得业绩倒退。安德森认为，“圣诞行情”已经提前兑现。“进入四季度，美股大幅走高，感恩节期间更是攀升至近期高位，部分原因是美联储发出强烈信号，在过去半年连续四次加息75个基点之后，联储官员已经做好准备放缓加息节奏。”他说。标普500指数10月至今累计反弹近9%，并于11月30日盘中升穿4100点，不过进入12月后势头明显转弱。展望2023年美股前景，安德森表示，2020年疫情突袭令股市遭遇剧烈抛售，2021年美股实现强势反弹，而2022年无疑是调整的一年。“鉴于美联储全年都在加息，从系统中抽走大量流动性，叠加其他的利空因素，股市表现其实已经好于许多人的预期。因此我认为，2023年大盘总体仍将举步维艰，板块走势将会分化。”安德森说道。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9928630849,"gmtCreate":1671253562481,"gmtModify":1676538516332,"author":{"id":"4111640372193142","authorId":"4111640372193142","name":"Paggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34e78ada667e7b63c0632c8f2d0fc95f","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4111640372193142","authorIdStr":"4111640372193142"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928630849","repostId":2291904904,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9928350992,"gmtCreate":1671201135616,"gmtModify":1676538507962,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092032122452460","authorIdStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928350992","repostId":2291904904,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9928389573,"gmtCreate":1671195056792,"gmtModify":1676538506865,"author":{"id":"3564911897267160","authorId":"3564911897267160","name":"Ysw16888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1423ff0b5d25f0f11370c91853168cc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564911897267160","authorIdStr":"3564911897267160"},"htmlText":"A","listText":"A","text":"A","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928389573","repostId":2291904904,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9928307557,"gmtCreate":1671186468380,"gmtModify":1676538505636,"author":{"id":"3582685386479633","authorId":"3582685386479633","name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582685386479633","authorIdStr":"3582685386479633"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928307557","repostId":2291904904,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105230641,"gmtCreate":1671186474461,"gmtModify":1671186487305,"authorId":3582685386479633,"author":{"id":3582685386479633,"idStr":"3582685386479633","authorId":3582685386479633,"name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9928307557,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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