暴跌结束了吗？多家顶级投行警告：准备应对更痛苦的一年

金十数据2022-12-22

对美股来说，连续两年下跌是很罕见的。因此经过今年的暴跌之后，2023年美股再次走低的可能性很低。然而，历史表明，如果真的发生这种情况，那么投资者将不得不准备迎接另一个令人非常难受的年份。自1928年以来，标普500指数只出现过四次连续两年下跌，分别发生在大萧条、第二次世界大战、上世纪70年代石油危机和本世纪初互联网泡沫破裂。在该指数近100年的历史中，这种情况显然是异常情况。然而，一旦发生，往往...

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Comments

真实之眼
2022-12-22
真实之眼
投行：50:50，大家看着辦[賤笑]
陳春豐
2022-12-22
陳春豐
🤔🤔🤔
陳春豐
2022-12-22
陳春豐
👍
霹雳倍倍22
2022-12-22
霹雳倍倍22
好壞都被你說完了！我也懂[無語]
无窮之路
2022-12-22
无窮之路
規律就是用來打破的
嘞撸虎7
2022-12-22
嘞撸虎7
閱

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Matejka也表示：“股市今年面临的风险还没有结束，这让我对前景感到紧张，尤其是明年上半年。”摩根大通预计，标普500指数将回落至2022年的低点，即跌至3577点，之后美联储的转向将推动下半年的反弹，这将使其比当前水平高出约10%。摩根士丹利的威尔逊（Michael Wilson）是坚定大空头，他在今年的《机构投资者》调查中排名第一。他认为，标普500指数第一季度最多还会再下跌21%。随后的反弹将使该指数今年收于3900点左右，这跟本周一收盘相比仅上涨约2%。媒体调查了22位策略师，其平均预期是标普500指数明年收于4078点，比目前水平高出约7%。最乐观的预测是增长24%，而悲观的预测是下跌11%。在欧洲，对14位策略师进行的一项类似调查预计斯托克600指数将平均上涨5%左右。这一谨慎的预期反映出，从货币紧缩到乌克兰冲突，再到欧洲能源危机，市场的挑战数不胜数。其中，货币紧缩已经抑制了近期股市的上涨。即使是通胀方面的好消息也伴随着一个很大的警告，因为它没有动摇各国央行控制通胀的决心。美联储和欧洲央行上周的鹰派言论引发股市大幅下跌，他们还不忘强调，投资者等待已久的政策转变远未到来。外媒本月发布的一项调查显示，顶级基金经理们也预测，2023年的开局会很艰难，他们倾向于认为到明年下半年才会有收益。对于那些持乐观态度的人来说，他们认为可以从美国经济的弹性、加息速度放缓等因素中获得支撑。但尽管如此，策略师们的一个主要共识是，股市尚未反映出悲观的经济前景。与不断恶化的经济前景密切相关的是企业收益。尽管2022年通胀失控，企业利润却表现出了惊人的弹性，不过随着利润率压力的增加，预计明年企业利润将大幅下降，而需求疲软可能导致滞胀这个更大的风险。威尔逊本周警告称，企业利润下滑可能与2008年金融危机期间的情况相当，而这并没有反映在当前的股票价格中。美国银行的一项调查也显示，基金经理预计明年的盈利前景将恶化，这使得他们对债券的看法比股票更为乐观；他们的股债比处于2009年以来的最低水平。摩根大通策略师拉科斯-布哈斯（Dubravko Lakos-Bujas）说：“我们预计今年（企业盈利）的增长背景不会持续到2023年，预计美国、欧元区和日本的企业利润将分别下降9%、10%和4%。”相比之下，机构更看好新兴市场明年的情况。包括乔纳森·加纳（Jonathan Garner）在内的摩根士丹利策略师仍在增持亚洲地区新兴市场股票，而不是发达市场，因为他们“更有信心，一个新的牛市周期正在开始”。与此同时，野村证券的研究团队也称，西方的衰退将使亚洲股市有机会跑赢，因为亚洲股市估值更低，基本面前景更好。道富环球投资顾问公司高级投资策略师阿尤布（Mehvish Ayub）则相对较悲观，他表示：“预计2023年全球增长都将受到巨大打击，不确定性将持续，有很多波动需要应对，股市仍面临挑战。”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9922361705,"gmtCreate":1671693355408,"gmtModify":1676538577510,"author":{"id":"3579545159414930","authorId":"3579545159414930","name":"真实之眼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f01043be3138a5524e698302d911c6e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579545159414930","authorIdStr":"3579545159414930"},"htmlText":"投行：50:50，大家看着辦[賤笑]&nbsp;","listText":"投行：50:50，大家看着辦[賤笑]&nbsp;","text":"投行：50:50，大家看着辦[賤笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922361705","repostId":2293377960,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9922380224,"gmtCreate":1671689494269,"gmtModify":1676538577027,"author":{"id":"4095662847592050","authorId":"4095662847592050","name":"陳春豐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c8eb12bec8afafb41e4c1d36d3d754","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095662847592050","authorIdStr":"4095662847592050"},"htmlText":"🤔🤔🤔","listText":"🤔🤔🤔","text":"🤔🤔🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922380224","repostId":2293377960,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9922380874,"gmtCreate":1671689470998,"gmtModify":1676538577024,"author":{"id":"4095662847592050","authorId":"4095662847592050","name":"陳春豐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c8eb12bec8afafb41e4c1d36d3d754","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095662847592050","authorIdStr":"4095662847592050"},"htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922380874","repostId":2293377960,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":623766857,"gmtCreate":1671688752381,"gmtModify":1676538576832,"author":{"id":"127367578255012","authorId":"127367578255012","name":"霹雳倍倍22","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc676dd91955af30ed35cff84054f284","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"127367578255012","authorIdStr":"127367578255012"},"htmlText":"好壞都被你說完了！我也懂[無語]&nbsp;","listText":"好壞都被你說完了！我也懂[無語]&nbsp;","text":"好壞都被你說完了！我也懂[無語]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/623766857","repostId":2293377960,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623769377,"gmtCreate":1671686129401,"gmtModify":1676538576387,"author":{"id":"3575330478066270","authorId":"3575330478066270","name":"无窮之路","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ddc54eeabbfda3ea1be0bcf005b0d3","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575330478066270","authorIdStr":"3575330478066270"},"htmlText":"規律就是用來打破的","listText":"規律就是用來打破的","text":"規律就是用來打破的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/623769377","repostId":2293377960,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9922339539,"gmtCreate":1671685669622,"gmtModify":1676538576300,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4092032122452460","authorIdStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922339539","repostId":2293377960,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":41,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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