美联储步伐放缓？多名官员表态，支持下月加息25个基点

格隆汇2023-01-21

摘要：已成定局？本周，多名美联储官员发表公开讲话，都释放出了乐观信号。目前，市场普遍预计美联储将在下次会议中加息25个基点。在接近利率终点时，他们支持将25个基点的小幅加息作为一种更加谨慎行事的方式。当地时间1月20日，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒就当前国际经济形势背景讨论了美国2023年经济前景。沃勒在讲话中指出，虽然2022年12月美国消费者价格指数环比下降，核心通胀率从11月的6%降至12月的...

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2023-01-22
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Several officials expressed their support for raising interest rates by 25 basis points next month","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fda0f0ceacee92828ca8f8b39cf05b8","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"摘要：已成定局？本周，多名美联储官员发表公开讲话，都释放出了乐观信号。目前，市场普遍预计美联储将在下次会议中加息25个基点。在接近利率终点时，他们支持将25个基点的小幅加息作为一种更加谨慎行事的方式。当地时间1月20日，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒就当前国际经济形势背景讨论了美国2023年经济前景。沃勒在讲话中指出，虽然2022年12月美国消费者价格指数环比下降，核心通胀率从11月的6%降至12月的5.7%，但他对美国2023年通胀前景持谨慎态度。因为美国2022年12月的核心通胀率与11月相比有所上升并且与10月和3月美联储开始加息时的数据持平。货币政策应该继续收紧，赞成联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）计划将基准利率再上调25个基点的决定，并继续就达成2%的通胀目标做出努力。周三，2023年美联储票委、费城联储主席哈克表示，他支持美联储放慢加息步伐至25个基点，因为有迹象显示，高企的通货膨胀正在降温。同时预计美联储将提高利率至5%以上，并在这个水平“停留”一段时间。对于去年美联储的激进加息，哈克指出：\"我预计今年还会加息几次，不过在我看来，我们一次加息75个基点的日子肯定已经过去了，今后加息25个基点将是适当的。在今年的某个时候，美联储的政策将处于抑制经济活动的水平，以帮助将通胀降低到2%的目标水平。\"此外，通胀仍有上行风险，美国核心通胀率应该在今年降至3.5%，明年缓解到2.5%，并在2025年回到2%的目标水平。他还补充说，美国经济今年预计增长1%;而美国今年的失业率将从目前的3.5%上升到4.5%，随后几年将回落到4%。哈克表示，预计美联储将把利率提高到5%以上，加息停止点的不确定性是央行应该放慢加息步伐的原因。让我们升至5%以上，并在那里停留一段时间，然后看看经济表现如何。没有必要将货币政策推到会严重影响经济活动的水平。美国纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯也在周四表示，联储还没有完成为了削减顽固价格压力所采取的激进紧缩行动。由于通货膨胀率仍然很高，而且有迹象表明供需持续失衡，很明显，货币政策仍有更多工作要做，才能将通货膨胀率持续降至2%的目标。遏制通胀可能需要“低于趋势”的经济增长以及劳动力市场走软。但是，恢复物价稳定对于实现就业最大化和长期物价稳定至关重要，我们必须坚持到底，直到任务完成。此外，达拉斯联储主席洛根也表示，进一步放慢加息幅度将确保FOMC拥有最佳的货币政策决定。FOMC恪守物价稳定性目标，美国通胀太高。服务业通胀偏高，是经济过热的症候。洛根指出，需要加息，直至有证据表明通胀放缓。必须将紧俏的劳动力市场带入更好的平衡状态。需要看到更多数据表明劳动力市场不存在过热。美联储官员们不应当被局限在利率峰值这个问题上，而必须评估数据。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9952920282,"gmtCreate":1674364115247,"gmtModify":1676538938380,"author":{"id":"4095548256553960","authorId":"4095548256553960","name":"xiaochoochoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa4c71aeb75832cfccf0bf892d1f6ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095548256553960","authorIdStr":"4095548256553960"},"htmlText":"🥵","listText":"🥵","text":"🥵","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952920282","repostId":2305396025,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":20,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2305396025"}